A game with massive finals ramifications closes things out on Friday night, as the Eels host the Roosters at CommBank Stadium, with the loser of this one all but kissing goodbye their finals’ chances this season. With the Eels set to be without star playmaker Mitch Moses, the Roosters certainly seem to have the edge in this one.
Below, we will dissect the matchup and supply our NRL betting tips via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 25 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters
CommBank Stadium, Friday 18th August, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels are coming off the back of a thrashing at the hands of the Broncos last week, going down 54-10 at the Gabba. The Eels were never in it, down 24-0 at the half, before scoring two tries in the final 17 minutes to at least get themselves on the board. They gave up 12 line-breaks, missed 46 tackles, made 11 errors and conceded 8 penalties in a performance that likely ends their season when it’s all said and done.
The Roosters won their second straight, and third of their past 4 games, crushing the Dolphins 30-14 at home. The Dolphins led 8-0 just before half-time, however conceded a try to Joey Manu on the stroke of half-time which proved costly. The Roosters ran in 5 unanswered tries to run out convincing winners in the end.
Match Preview
The Eels opened 3.5-point favourites on the look ahead line prior to the completion of round 24, however with their massive loss to the Broncos and the season-ending injury to Mitch Moses, the line has flipped a full 7 points, with the Roosters now 3.5-point favourites. It’s a number I struggle to get to, given how poorly the Roosters have played throughout the season, however they appear to be in better form at the moment than the Eels. We will come back to the spread.
The total opened 43.5 and has been bet up slightly to 44.5, however the under is heavily juiced. My fair is 43.5, however with the loss of Mitch Moses I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total go under. Concentrating on purely the Eels total points under could also be worth a look, with under 19.5 available.
These teams met in round 5, back when both teams were considered Premiership contenders, with the Roosters closing 5.5-point favourites at home. The Roosters won 28-20, in one of their better early season performances, however they were certainly helped by two sin bins against the Eels.
I think the Roosters can get the job done in this one, with a one try spread surely being short enough for them to cover. As mentioned last week, the Eels have been horrible in covering spreads when underdogs this season (2-9), and with Moses out for the season, the belief is surely all but gone at the Eels.
Elsewhere, I like the Eels team total under, with the Roosters rarely allowing teams they beat to score more than 18 points. In their 10 wins this season, they’ve conceded just 16.4 points per game. With Mitch Moses out, and the Roosters going all in for a late finals push, I like this play.
Other Bet
Parramatta Eels (team total) Under 19.5 - $1.94 at Palmerbet (1u)
Sydney Roosters -3.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
