AFL Round 20 begins on Friday night with a mouth-watering matchup between Collingwood and Carlton at the MCG. It’ll be a pack stadium at the home of footy and Ace is here to preview this pivotal encounter and provide his expert betting analysis!
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AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Carlton
Friday 7:50pm AEST, July 28th, MCG
Round 20 of the AFL season kicks off with a bang, with the Pies and Blues set to face off in front of a bumper crowd at the MCG. It’s a little earlier than their final face-off in 2022, however there are still massive consequences at stake, namely for Carlton. A win for the Blues will see them rise to 5th on the ladder, and lock in a spot in the Top 8 at the end of the round. The Pies are sitting pretty on top of the ladder, now two games and percentage clear of Port Adelaide, and more importantly 3 games and 6.5% ahead of the 3rd place Brisbane Lions.
It's hard to fault the Pies in terms of the results they are producing when it comes to pure win and loss. They are 16-2 for the year, with a loss to Brisbane earlier in the year, and a tight loss to the Demons on King’s Birthday when reports suggest illness ravaged the team. There are whispers again this week of a few players that are under the weather, however there is only one change so far, with Bobby Hill (illness) out, Oleg Markov into the starting 22, and Will Hoskin-Elliott coming into the team as the sub. There are two ways you can look at the win over Port Adelaide. You can look at all the things the Power did right, including tagging Nick Daicos and keeping Darcy Moore’s hands full with Charlie Dixon. However even with those moves, and a down performance from Jordan De Goey, the Pies *still* found a way to win. With some separation now at the top of the ladder, I am intrigued to see how Collingwood perform across the four quarters on Friday night.
It’s not often that you see six changes after a dominant win, but we see that with the Blues this week. Sam Walsh and Jack Silvagni out through injury doesn’t help the Blues, however seeing the names Cripps, Cerra, Pittonet, Martin and Owies in the ‘in’ column certainly strengthens the overall team. Pittonet assumes the number 1 ruck position, meaning Tom De Koning will play more time up forward as a second tall target. The primary forward target himself is going to keep the Pies hands full on Friday night, with Charlie Curnow coming into this one off a career high 10 goals against the Eagles. All eyes will be on the Blues forward line as the siren sounds, as it will be interesting to see if the Pies look to play Nathan Murphy on Curnow, allowing Moore to zone off De Koning to assist, or we see a match-up of the potential All-Australian FF and CHB.
The weather should be okay for Friday night footy, so we should be treated to a fascinating contest. I am a little concerned about the Pies backing up from a 6 day break, including interstate travel, with some illness about in the squad. Carlton are fielding a strong team, and have the ability to get the upper hand through the middle here. I will back Carlton with the 14.5 point head start here for 1 unit.
Carlton +14.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Daniel McStay 2+ goals – happy to go back to the well against with McStay this week. Mihocek commands the most attention, followed by Cox when he is down forward. I like his chances to kick two majors against Kemp/McGovern.
Jack Crisp 20+ disposals – looks to be enjoying his return to the half back flank, and is the catalyst for a lot of run and carry for the Pies.
Adam Saad 20+ disposals – the same can be said for Saad. Looking for the Blues to use his run and carry to overcome and try and get out the back of the Pies defensive setup.
SGM Odds: $6.25 at BoomBet
