St Kilda and North Melbourne go head to head to finish off Round 19, with both sides looking to bounce back after disappointing losses. Can the Saints keep their spot in the top eight? Or will the Roos finally put an end to their losing streak?
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AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
St Kilda vs North Melbourne
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, July 23rd, Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne’s fifteenth straight loss has left the Roos reeling from an injury standpoint, with Cam Zurhaar (ankle), George Wardlaw (hamstring), Callum Coleman-Jones (concussion) and Jack Ziebell (managed) all out of this week’s clash. Todd Goldstein, Will Phillips and Charlie Lazarro return for North Melbourne.
Ross Lyon was brutal in his assessment after his side’s loss to Gold Coast last week and has responded at selection, axing Liam Stocker, Ryan Burns and Jack Perris. Jack Higgins and Jack Bytel are back, while Hunter Clark has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the sub.
St Kilda have lost four of their last five games, with the Saints Round 18 loss coming on the back of a poor performance at the coalface. St Kilda were beaten in the contested possession count by 22 and by 15 in the clearances count, with the Saints trailing for the entirety of the contest against a side who was reeling after the sacking of their coach.
Ross Lyon won’t allow his side to be as complacent as they were last week, and the Saints will be looking to get back to their brand of football against an inexperienced North Melbourne side. St Kilda rank second in the competition for contested possessions, and with the size advantage they have through Steele and Crouch, the Saints should be well on top in the middle of the ground.
Although St Kilda should win this game comfortably, with the way they’ve been playing the line at -36.5 is too big to have confidence in taking the Saints. The total points market is the way to go in this clash, with the Saints last six matches only reaching above the 161.5 line once, which was against the Eagles. Even in the game the total points was 162, highlighting St Kilda’s struggles inside forward 50.
The average total points across St Kilda’s last six games has been 145, and the total points when the two sides faced off in Round 8 was a mere 98 points, in one of the worst games of the season. The last four games between the Saints and Roos have seen the total points under 161.5, at an average of 129 points.
North Melbourne have struggled to hit the scoreboard in recent weeks, producing scores of 40, 63 and 72 from their last three games. All roads point to a low scoring affair at Marvel.
Under 161.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
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Harry Sheezel 25+ Disposals: In a dark season for the Kangaroos, Harry Sheezel has been a bright spot averaging 26 disposals per game. After a quiet outing against Geelong in Round 17, Sheezel bounced back with 31 disposals in an outstanding performance despite his side’s struggles. Sheezel has reached the 30 disposal mark in three of his last four games.
Brad Crouch 25+ Disposals: Brad Crouch continues to get the job done week in, week out for the Saints, averaging 27 disposals per game. Crouch has hit the 25+ disposal mark in seven consecutive games, and will be a difficult matchup for the young North midfield.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 25+ Disposals: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been one of the most improved players in the AFL this season, becoming one of St Kilda’s most important players. Wanganeen-Milera has been at his best across the last fortnight, recording 33 and 28 disposals, despite two losses. Wanganeen-Milera has taken the most kick ins for St Kilda in each of their last four games, opening up extra avenues to gain disposals.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
