Two pivotal matchups on Saturday in the Association, as things heat up in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. We kick things off in Philadelphia, where the 76ers are aiming to keep their home court advantage against the Celtics, in a series where the winner will be a huge favourite to win the east. Then, the Suns will aim to stay in the series against the Nuggets, as they host game three down 2-0.
Two massive games which could shape the path to the NBA Finals on both sides of the bracket. Sit back and relax, as the team at Before You Bet have you covered for all the biggest games during the NBA Finals.
2022-23 NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Saturday, May 6th 2023
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Wells Fargo Center, 9:30am AEST
The 76ers welcomed back the MVP in game 2, as Joel Embiid made his return from a knee injury. Embiid was limited to just 27 minutes, as the Celtics led from the tip, running away 121-87 winners. I’m sure a decent chunk of this blowout was down to the fact that the 76ers were content with winning one of the first two games and wrestling home court advantage, but surely there are some concerns coming out of this game for the 76ers.
Regarding the spread, the Celtics currently sit as 1.5/2-point favourites, which tracks with the earlier matchups spread, however I don’t really agree with the difference between these two teams. The Celtics are rated 4.5 points better on a neutral site, while I have it closer to 2.5. I believe the 76ers will turn their performance around in game 3 and get the win as small dogs.
Regarding the total, I like the over. The totals in this series so far have been 213.5 and 215, with the market shifting depending on results. I see the result in game 1 being more indicative of a true total for these teams, with my fair sitting around 224.5. Small stakes for both, but I like the 76ers to secure a 113-109 type victory.
Other Bet
Over 214 total points - $1.90 @ NEDS (1u)
Philadelphia 76ers to Win
$2.18 (1 Unit)
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
FootPrint Center, 12:00pm AEST
The Nuggets have dominated this series early doors, and with the loss of Chris Paul for the Suns, alarm bells are ringing. It appears as though the market is factoring in a 4-point advantage for home-court in this series, and it makes sense given the disparity of play between the Nuggets at home and away. The Nuggets only managed a 19-22 record on the road this season, good for the 11th best record in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Suns are very good at home (28-13), which was the 8th best record in the NBA.
With the loss of Chris Paul, I don’t really agree with this move. Chris Paul is surely worth more to the spread than zero, and I believe the market is pricing in the ‘must win’ scenario for the Suns. As a smart man once said, if you’re in the position of a ‘must win game’, maybe you’re just not that good. I believe the Nuggets will win this game and get one step closer to the Western Conference Finals.
As for the total, I like the over. With Chris Paul in the line-up this season, the Suns games averaged 225.5 total points. When Paul was out of the line-up, that average went up to 231.3. The total for this game has dropped severely from the opening two games, and it now sits at 224.5. I make this just about correct; however, I would lean to the over based off the Suns’ defence without their star point guard.
Other Bets
Denver Nuggets to Win - $2.58 @ Betfair (1u)
Denver Nuggets +4.5
$1.89 (2 Units)
