The best tipping result of the season between two close foes may be a sound predictor for another local derby with a tight recent history as Super Rugby Pacific heads into Round 7.
Last weekend’s classic in Canberra produced a 40-36 win for the ACT Brumbies over the NSW Waratahs and the margin delivered us a nice winner at $4.60 for the Brumbies to win by 1-7 points.
On Friday night, the Queensland Reds and Brumbies meet at Suncorp Stadium in a feature clash of the round. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 7 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Queensland Reds v Brumbies
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Friday April 7th, 7:35pm (AEDT)
This is the closest rivalry in recent history in Australia... 5-all in the 10 games since the beginning of 2020 and eight of those have been decided by six points or less.
What do we make of the mojo? Reds are desperate at 2-4, but did improve last weekend against the Crusaders and often carry hurt into better rugby when they feel shunned in Wallabies training squad selections.
The Brumbies have picked a settled and very strong side. They have 11 Wallabies in the starting side and a command of their game that is enviable.
Non-Wallabies like winger Andy Muirhead, speedster Corey Toole and flanker Rory Scott have been among the Brumbies best in 2023 so the weapons run deep.
Coach Steve Larkham has added some attacking zing so when the Waratahs scored five tries against them last weekend, the Brumbies scored six.
Many are classifying James O’Connor’s demotion to the bench, behind Lawson Creighton, as “dropped.” Sure, he made three errant kicks against the Crusaders in a scratchy game but smart minds also see his bench position as repeating the accelerator role he played against the Brumbies in Canberra last month.
The Reds were 13-0 down at half-time when he came on in that game. He sparked tempo, breaks and tries and a more clinical Reds side would have won the match before going down 23-17.
The Brumbies deserved to win it. They are a far tidier, more clinical and better disciplined team and all the stats say so.
There is one big stat that suggests the Reds are great value to win at $2.88, or at the line with 7.5-point start at $1.90.
The Reds have beaten the Brumbies seven straight times when they have met at Suncorp Stadium. Humidity, travel, hostile crowd, quality opponent...Larkham and his team have talked through all the factors. Now, they have to deal with them.
A Tate McDermott Anytime Try ($3.50 at TAB) also looks juicy.
Reds to win
$2.88 (3 Units)
Melbourne Rebels v Blues
AAMI Park, Melbourne, Saturday April 8th, 7:35pm (AEDT)
The progress of the Rebels is being reinforced at every turn. This week, it was the good form that propelled flanker Brad Wilkin and flyhalf Carter Gordon into the Wallabies training squad for the first time.
The Rebels are still only 2-4 and ninth so the reality of progress and position on the table still don’t match up.
The Rebels have scored a good number of points in losses to the Hurricanes (33) and Chiefs (25) already this season so they have put together decent attack against Kiwi opposition.
Conceding tries has been a handbrake. Because they have a crack in attack, the Rebels’ turnover count is the highest in the competition. That’s free ball for the potent Blues attack.
The Rebels can’t be giving away easy tries.
The Blues have won 13 of their past 14 games against Aussie opposition so they have earned a dominance with this quality team.
Rebels +14.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
More Super Rugby Pacific Round 7 Betting Tips
Crusaders v Moana Pasifika
Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, Friday April 7th, 5:05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Leicester Fainga’anuku 2 or more tries - $3.00 at TAB
Highlanders v Hurricanes
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Saturday April 8th, 5:05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Highlanders +8.5 - $1.90 at Ladbrokes
