Back to normal programming, with two games for Sunday in the NRL. Thankfully, we get two potentially good games this week, as first up the Cronulla Sharks play host to the surprising New Zealand Warriors, before the Bulldogs host the Cowboys at Accor Stadium. Both games have the potential to be close and entertaining, which is something I can get behind for a Sunday afternoon slate.
Check out our best NRL betting tips for Sunday below and good luck if following!
NRL Round 5 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors
PointsBet Stadium, Sunday 2nd April, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Sharks welcomed back halfback Nicho Hynes last week, and what an addition he proved to be, as the Sharks ran out 40-8 winners over the Dragons. Hynes had a blinder, serving up 5 line-break assists and 3 try assists, as he led the Sharks to the biggest win of the season so far. Despite being dominant statistically, Head Coach Craig Fitzgibbon would have still taken issue with the 13 errors the Sharks made, something that I’m sure he will be addressing this week.
The Warriors continued their impressive start to the season, beating the Bulldogs 16-14 at home, with a piece of induvial brilliance by Shaun Johnson in the 66th minute proving the difference in a tight matchup that the Bulldogs led for the most part. The Warriors continued their ability to break the line, making 6 line-breaks to the Bulldogs 2, keeping their average to 6.25 line-breaks per game, good for most in the league.
The lookahead had the Sharks 9.5-point favourites over the Warriors prior to last weekend’s games, and with both teams winning in round 4, the number hasn’t moved all that much. This seems a little odd, given how good the Sharks looked last week blowing out the Dragons 40-8. But I guess it shows that the market is starting to give the Warriors a little bit more respect.
A quick look at the for and against will have Warriors fans excited about the defensive statistics the teams has displayed, conceding only 14.5 points per game, good for second best in the league. But if we dig a little deeper, we see the Warriors have not faced a top 8 attack in terms of points scored, with the best team they’ve played (Roosters), averaging 19.3 points per game (9th). A deeper dive shows the Warriors are also getting the job done with limiting their opponents’ metres, and post contact metres, conceding the least in each category. This week they get their biggest test in the Sharks, and it’s going to be fascinating to see whether the Warriors have an answer for Nicho Hynes and the Sharks’ attack.
The Warriors are undoubtedly playing better than they did last season, however I’m not convinced they are going to be able to match it with the Sharks. Last season, the Sharks closed 14.5 (away) and 15.5 (home) point favourites against the Warriors, and easily covered both numbers. Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors gave a good account of themselves, I trust the Sharks to continue on their way and win this one convincingly.
Cronulla Sharks (13+)
$2.05 (1.5 Units)
Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys
Accor Stadium, Sunday 2nd April, 6:15pm (AEST)
The Bulldogs once again looked solid for the opening hour or so last week, leading the Warriors after two minutes all the way until a Shaun Johnson try took the lead from the Bulldogs with only 15 minutes left in the contest. Coach Cameron Ciraldo would have plenty of positives to discuss with his team over their performance during the first month of the competition, but he will have some serious concerns with the lack of an 80-minute performance from his men. Ciraldo will believe his team should have won last week, and you’d hope he has them finally ready to play the full 80 this week.
The Cowboys got back on track last week, after two straight losses had them mired towards the bottom of the ladder. Whilst they weren’t perfect against the Titans, for a team desperate for the two points, the Cowboys did well to overcome a sin-binning to get the job done 24-12. They definitely aren’t at their 2022 level yet, but a win is surely a shot in the arm and a boost for the confidence levels of a Cowboys team who came into the season expecting to be right in the Premiership discussion.
This game is close to a coin flip with the books, with the Cowboys opening 1.5-point favourites prior to last week’s game, to now sit right around a pick em’, or Bulldogs slight favourites. The favourite has flipped back and forth a few times during the week, and it shows just how close the market has both these teams.
Whilst the Bulldogs have deservedly received an upgrade on their rating since last season, there has been a massive shift in the markets view on the Cowboys since the last time these teams met in August last year. Then, the Cowboys closed 11.5-point favourites, before covering that line in a 28-14 victory. To now have these teams so close, it shows how cold the market has become on the Cowboys.
Whilst I have soured on the Cowboys too, I still believe they can get their season back on track and be a factor come September. However, I’m not banking on it here, and agree with the price in the market.
I’m going to lean into the handicap that has the Bulldogs being a superior first half team, and take them at the handicap in the first half. The Bulldogs have shown all year that they are stronger in the first half, and I’ll tip them to keep it up this weekend.
Canterbury Bulldogs (-0.5) – 1st half line
$2.12 (1 Unit)
