After just 2 matches last Saturday, normal transmission resumes this week with 3 exciting games. The first heads to the regional town of Mudgee, with the Sea Eagles hosting the Knights. Now a regular fixture each season, the match in the central west of NSW is always a great spectacle. The second game heads to Wollongong for the first time this year with the Dragons hosting the Dolphins. The Dragons dropped in the NRL Power Rankings, while the Dolphins lost no admirers with their recent loss. The night concludes in Brisbane, with the Broncos returning ‘home’ to Suncorp Stadium up against a struggling Tigers outfit. As always, Before You Bet will have you covered across the entire weekend of sporting action.
NRL Round 5 Saturday Preview & Betting Tips
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights
Glen Willow Oval, Saturday 1st April, 3pm (AEST)
The Sea Eagles went down to the Rabbitohs 13-12 in a tight, Golden Point contest last week. Leading at HT, the Sea Eagles were kept scoreless in the second half despite having a larger share of possession, a higher completion rate and accumulating more total and post-contact metres. They were strong in some areas but need greater potency when attacking their opponents red zone.
The Knights caused an upset over the Raiders 24-14 on Sunday, in a victory that made a statement about their determination. Amid a horror injury toll, the Knights overturned a 14-8 HT deficit to set up victory with 3 tries in 6 minutes just after the break. Their defence held strong (24 missed tackles, conceded just 3 line breaks) and they will hope it gives their squad confidence moving forward.
The Sea Eagles are strong favourites ($1.20 vs $4.50). This is an accurate judgement given the attacking power of the home side and players missing for the Knights. As good as last week was for this club, they will face a new challenge altogether. Defence has been a strong area for the Sea Eagles, and this will limit the Knights scoring opportunities (and points in attack). The line (13.5) is in danger, mainly because the Knights have passages whereby, they ‘switch off’ in defence. They cannot afford it here, otherwise, the result will get ugly for them.
Prop Bet
SGM – T. Trbojevic, Schuster & Olakauatu to score @ $15 – 0.5 units
Sea Eagles -13.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs The Dolphins
WIN Stadium, Saturday 1st April, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Dragons were humbled 40-8 by the Sharks in Round 4, their poor effort only increasing the pressure on coach Anthony Griffin. Leading 8-nil after 30 minutes, there was a sense that the upset was brewing. With their opponents clicking into another gear in the second half, the Dragons fragilities were exposed. They allowed 11 line breaks, missed 39 tackles and conceded 490m less than the Sharks. Such performances against quality teams will rarely go unpunished.
The Dolphins did themselves proud against the Broncos as their rivalry got off to a great start. An upset appeared likely at one stage by the Broncos closed out the contest strongly to prevail 18-12. The margin of victory could’ve been larger had their opponents converted their tries. The most impressive part of their performance was the way they gave themselves a chance at victory; they controlled possession (54%) and had a higher completion rate. The performance was hindered also with the injury suffered to halfback Sean O’Sullivan, which is likely a loss they will need to cover the remainder of the season. This could be a reason why the Dragons are favourites ($1.77 vs $2.05). Milford is named at halfback and wasn’t too bad last week. The return of Marshall-King further assists the Dolphins spine and adds stability.
The odds should be closer (almost $1.90 each). The Dragons do have positives. For two matches now (against the Sharks and Broncos), they have played a tight half (or more) and had a chance of winning the match but failed. They are capable enough if they play for 80 minutes. Due to the uncertainty in this fixture, confidence is very low in the result. The suggested bet is rather aimed towards a close result, with either team prevailing.
Either Team by 8 Points or Less
$2.15 (2 Units)
Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers
Suncorp Stadium, Saturday 1st April, 7:30pm (AEST)
The Broncos wanted to make a statement against the Dolphins that Suncorp Stadium (and Brisbane) was their territory. Despite being the away team, they did just that with a gritty 18-12 victory. The final margin could’ve been more had they converted their tries, but they will take the win. The fact that they scored 2 tries in the final 11 minutes demonstrated their determination to succeed, all the while with a lesser share of possession (46%) and inferior completion rate (65%). Running the ball (higher average metres and post contact metres) and line breaks was again a strength and an area they will aim to build on in this contest.
The Tigers were competitive at times in their match against the Storm, but it wasn’t enough to impact the 24-12 result. Trailing 22-6 at HT, an improved second half will give them some confidence, but major concerns still linger. Their defensive structure was again exposed and their ineffectiveness with the ball, especially at the end of sets, fails to build pressure on opponents.
This game is the Broncos to lose; even if they have not defeated the Tigers in their past 4 meetings (last time was back in 2018). They are clearly the better team, but the opening 4 rounds of the competition is sure to have drained their energy. If they want to be taken seriously, this is a game that they should win and win well. The key is the freedom they enjoyed against the Dragon in the closing stages. They will be conscious not to allow the game to get to that situation (the same happened against the Dolphins too). With a better defensive structure, they should also limit the Tigers attacking opportunities. The line is almost too large (16.5), so take the safer option of the margin, with a larger stake.
Prop Bet
SGM – Staggs, Cobbo and Mam to Score @ $9 – 0.5 units
Broncos 13+
$1.72 (3.5 Units)
