We head back to Rosehill this Saturday after the dramas surrounding Randwick last week. The forecast has improved and we should get through the whole meeting this time! Last week’s feature The Winter Challenge is scheduled on the program which highlights a strong card ten race card.
The track is currently rated a heavy 9 but plenty of sun in the lead up to race day may even see us get into the soft range come race day. Realistically I hink we will be racing on a heavy 8. The rail position is as follows: +4m 1500m-W/Post, True Remainder.
As always, Billy Bestford has cast his eye across the program and brings you his free horse racing tips, including best bets and race previews.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday July 30th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (7) Shades Of Rose
Best Value: Race 4 - (9) Monfelicity
Race 4
Want to have something on the Waller import (1) Lovely Esteem who comes into this having 3rd run in Aus and has progressed nicely at two starts this prep. Looks as if the step tp 1800m will suit and he was strong through the line last start behind Alcyone. Jmac jumps on from a good draw and he should see nice run throughout. Expect he is very strong come the last 100m.
With only 54kg on her back I think (9) Monfelicity can run very well here and was very good winning fresh. That race has turned into a terrific form reference, with three horses who finished behind there that day winning at their next starts. She will strip fitter for this now and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of her yet.
(2) Narrated was solid enough up in grade at Doomben and will run her usual very honest race. Will lead with Nash on board and expect he gets everything out of her. Could just run them off their legs.
(3) Elusive Jewel is another honest type but is struggling to win one of late. I think back in trip suits her chances here.
Value: (9) Monfelicity - $14 (0.5 unit)
(1) Lovely Esteem
$7.00 (1 unit)
Race 5
Giving (7) Shades Of Rose another chance. She’s been costly to punters this prep but really through no fault of her own. Saddle slipped fresh and lost the rider before being caught three wide on speed last start and nosed out on the line. I like the booking of Jmac today from a low draw I doubt he takes any chances with her from there. A drying track might help as well. I'm keeping it simply and betting up big today because I think simply she’s the best horse in this race.
(15) Twilight Affair looked handy enough in debut prep, winning once and placing twice. No doubt she should improve now into this 2nd prep and has trialled up well for her return.
(11) Petulant has been well backed at every run this prep and has been solid enough without winning. She’s been placed behind a couple of in-form horses at recent starts and should be hard fit now ready to run well. Draws the carpark which is some query.
(10) Sneaky Paige bounced back to form last start and looks the value runner. From a good draw with Bowman on I think she can run a hole. Still lightly raced and there’s some upside about her.
(7) Shades Of Rose
$2.70 (4 units)
Race 8
The Winter Challenge postponed from Randwick last week sees a similar field with the addition of Cross Talk and the omission of Mugatoo.
I’m pretty keen on (12) Cross Talk who gets a run in this now and has been simply airborne on the Sydney wet tracks this prep. He bolted in by 4L last start over 1400m and I think there should be no issues with the rise to 1500m now. Gets a 2kg weight swing on Jojo from when they met two starts ago. I think with just 53kg on his back they go handlebars down and make every post a winner.
(1) Gold Trip is the big query runner here with the stable having Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup targets in mind in the Spring. His form back in France is top shelf but this might be a tad short for him? Has jumped out extremely well for a return and could just be levels above this lot. He is a backable enough price.
(12) Jojo Was A Man is flying on these Sydney wet tracks and won’t get a better chance than this to win at Stakes level. I think with just 53kg on his back and a good solid prep under his belt he is going to take some beating.
(9) Oscar Zulu drops 4kg off the last start run and has been racing in great form this prep. Up to 1500m is a big tick for him, having won two of three starts over the trip.
(14) Snippy Fox handles wet ground and looks a decent value chance 3rd up.
Also Backing: (1) Gold Trip - $9.50 (0.5 unit)
(12) Cross Talk
$3.45 (2 units)
Race 9
Position in running and race fitness should take (5) Easy Single a long way here. A senior rider taking over is also a big tick as he probably should have won last start with a more positive ride. Expect Collett bounces him out to the lead and the drying track might suit him more than other key rivals. He should be near enough to peak fitness now 4th up and is a super consistent horse. They will do well to run him down here.
(3) Enchanted Heart has been competitive in much tougher races than this and has a bit of class about her. Back onto a wet track will do her no harm but I just think she may need the run.
(2) Rocketing By has been trialling well for his return and he is a good horse on the fresh side. With that being said, I’m not sure about resuming on a wet track against some race-fit horses?
(10) Siege beat Easy Single two back but arguably swap the runs and ES reverses the result. She’ll carry just 52kg here and maps for every favour. Four wins from six career starts tells you she’s no slouch.
(5) Easy Single
$4.00 (1 unit)
