Our final Sunday triple header for season 2022 kicks off this weekend, with 3 sides with title aspirations taking on 3 sides who are close to booking their Mad Monday trips for the end of the year.
First up at 2:00pm, the Wests Tigers host the Panthers at CommBank Stadium, with the Panthers set to rest all 7 of their Origin contingent against the last placed Tigers. The Tigers, meanwhile, have made significant changes to their run-on side, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Next up, the Storm will be desperate to get their season back on track, as they play host to the Raiders. This once brutal rivalry has turned one-sided in the recent past, with the Storm winning the past 5 matches between the pair. After two straight losses, the Storm will be eager to get a win in front of their home faithful, whilst the Raiders are hanging onto their chance of a top 8 finish by a thread.
Finally, the Bulldogs host the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium, in a matchup that tends to provide fireworks. The sides met at this very ground back in round 6, with the Latrell-less Rabbitohs smashing the hapless Bulldogs 36-16. Has anything changed, or will the Bunnies continue their ascent towards the top 4?
NRL Sunday Round 18 Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers
CommBank Stadium, Sunday 17th July, 2:00pm (AEST)
Wests Tigers
1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. James Roberts 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Fa’amanu Brown 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Justin Matamua 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Jackson Hastings. INTERCHANGE: 14. Fonua Pole 15. James Tamou 16. Luke Garner 17. Jake Simpkin. RESERVES: 18. Austin Dias 19. Jock Madden 20. Junior Tupou 21. Asu Kepaoa 22. Alex Seyfarth
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Robert Jennings 5. Charlie Staines 6. Kurt Falls 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Chris Smith 13. Matt Eisenhuth. INTERCHANGE: 14. Soni Luke 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon. RESERVES: 18. Sunia Turuva 19. J’maine Hopgood 20. Lindsay Smith 21. Thomas Jenkins 22. Christian Crichton
Match Preview
Massive changes to both teams leading into this round 18 clash, with 1st taking on last. The Tigers have relented to star Adam Doueihi’s request to play in the halves, shifting Jackson Hastings to lock and Luke Brooks back to halfback, in a change that has sparked plenty of social media chatter amongst Tigers fans. The Panthers, meanwhile, will be without all 7 of their Origin players, with Ivan Cleary rightfully allowing his stars a 10-day rest after a gruelling Origin period, given the Panthers now sit atop the NRL ladder by 6 points.
Last year, the Tigers also had the opportunity of playing the Panthers during the Origin period, and much like this season, Ivan Cleary rested his Origin players. The Tigers ran out easy 26-6 winners in that clash, which will surely give them confidence heading into this weekend.
Statistics get you nowhere in this game, with the Panthers essentially naming half of their reserve grade team. The closest we can get to a comparison was the Panthers’ round 13 clash with the Bulldogs, in which they ran out 30-18 winners. The only real change for this clash will be the loss of Api Koroisau, which is a big loss in my opinion.
With the players missing, I give the Tigers a shot at a win in this clash. It’s going to be low staking, but we’re going for the Tigers in a big upset. I believe the value in the handicap is gone, with the Tigers opening +12.5 and having been bet into +8.5.
Alternate Bets:
Wests Tigers Over 15.5 ($1.87)
May, Maumalo, Doueihi Tryscorers ($19)
Wests Tigers H2H
$3.25 (1 Unit)
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders
AAMI Park, Sunday 17th July, 4:05pm (AEST)
Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Nick Meaney 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Dean Ieremia 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Alec MacDonald 17. Jordan Grant. RESERVES: 18. Jayden Nikorima 19. Chris Lewis 20. Tom Eisenhuth 21. Young Tonumaipea 22. Bronson Garlick
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Ryan Sutton. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tom Starling 15. James Schiller 16. Adam Elliott 17. Corey Horsburgh. RESERVES: 18. Brad Schneider 19. Ata Mariota 20. Corey Harawira-Naera 21. Emre Guler 22. Albert Hopoate
Match Preview
Aren’t the Storm glad to get back superstar Cam Munster for this round 18 clash! After two straight losses, the Storm have dropped to 3rd place on the ladder, 2 points behind the Cowboys. A loss this week could have the Storm under all sorts of pressure to keep a place in the top 4, with the Sharks, Broncos and Eels all within touching distance.
The Raiders, meanwhile, will be ruing a tight loss to the Dragons in round 16, with 2 points going begging in a dour 12-10 loss. Canberra now sits in 11th place, 2 points off a top 8 spot, however there are 2 teams above them with superior for and against. A tough ask for them this week, however all is not lost, with matches against the Warriors, Titans and Dragons coming up in the run to the finals.
In attack, these sides have strikingly similar numbers across the park, apart from points scored per game and line breaks generated. These are obviously key statistics, and it shows that the Storm are far more clinical in attack than the Raiders. The Raiders score the 11th most points in the competition, whilst only generating the 15th most line breaks per game. The Storm on the other hand are 2nd in both categories.
Defensively, the numbers are again quite similar, with both sides able to halt the other team’s yardage extremely well. This should be a tight battle through the middle third of the field early in this clash.
This opened Storm -9.5 and was quickly bet to -11.5 on the news of Munster’s return, where it remains. My numbers have the Storm more like a 17-point favourite, however with their poor run of form I think the market is a little closer to the mark. Either way, I like the Storm at home to win and win comfortably, despite what will likely be a tight opening 20 minutes. The Storm average 36 points a game at home this season, so a Storm team total over is also on the cards.
Alternate Bets:
Storm Over 25.5 ($1.86)
Highest Scoring Half - 2nd ($1.81)
Storm 13+
$2.05 (1.5 Units)
Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Accor Stadium, Sunday 17th July, 6:55pm (AEST)
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Jake Averillo 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Braidon Burns 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Jackson 12. Corey Waddell 13. Tevita Pangai jnr. INTERCHANGE: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Joe Stimson 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner. RESERVES: 19. Matt Dufty 20. Declan Casey 21. Bailey Biondi-Odo 22. Jackson Topine 23. Chris Patolo
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray. INTERCHANGE: 14. Kodi Nikorima 15. Jed Cartwright 16. Siliva Havili 17. Thomas Burgess. RESERVES: 18. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 19. Richard Kennar 20. Davvy Moale 21. Shaq Mitchell 22. Blake Taaffe 23. Ben Lovett
Match Preview
The Bulldogs have looked a far better side since the sacking of Trent Barrett as Head Coach, and it will be interesting to see how they finish the season. The Rabbitohs, meanwhile, have also started kicking on towards the back end of the season. They have managed to score at least 30 points in 5 of their past 6 matches, and look set to push for an unexpected top 4 finish.
The Bulldogs come in fresh off the bye, with only Matt Burton backing up from Origin. Burton engaged in a skirmish with Dane Gagai and was also clipped high in a tackle, leaving him battered and bruised. Despite this, it appears as though he will back up, and it must be said if he doesn’t, this could get very ugly for the Bulldogs.
These two sides met in round 6, with the Rabbitohs dominating the match through the middle and winning easily 36-16. Whilst I don’t think this contest will be as one sided, I still like the Rabbitohs to win and win well.
I like the look of all overs in this game. The Rabbitohs attack has taken off in recent weeks, and aside from only scoring 6 points in their match two weeks ago in monsoonal conditions, the Bulldogs have managed to improve dramatically in their attack. Expect plenty of points in this one.
Alternate Bets:
Rabbitohs Over 24.5 ($2.00)
Bulldogs Over 15.5 ($1.83)
Over 41.5 Points
$1.91 (2 Units)
