After a perfect 3/3 with his esports betting picks for last Tuesday, Michael Lee is back with more betting picks and predictions. Today, he takes a look at three NLC 2022 Spring League of Legends matches on Monday, January 31, including X7 Esports vs Bifrost, Riddle Esports vs Vanir, and Team Singularity vs MnM Gaming.
Esports Betting Tips: Monday, January 31st
X7 Esports vs Bifrost
NLC 2022 Spring
X7 Esports are the only undefeated team of the NLC, with a perfect 6-0 record, and will now face Bifrost, who have managed a 5-1 record, which puts them in second place, tied with JD|XL, who handed Bifrost their only loss so far back on January 17.
Since then, Bifrost have picked up three wins against Vanir, Astralis Talent, and Riddle Esports, which is nothing to be too excited about, but Bifrost are winning games against other bottom-table teams and are looking like a serious candidate to win the NLC title.
These highly talented teams will compete for the trophy, so the only question that needs answering is which team will prevail on Monday. And while the bookies have made it very clear that X7 Esports are in a much better spot to win (1.30), the odds offered on Bifrost seems a bit too high.
Looking at the stats, X7 Esports have a much better GDPM (415 – 208) and are very efficient in translating their leads with a +2908 GD@15 to Bifrost's +425. But there isn't much to separate these teams talent-wise, and while X7 Esports' numbers are significantly better, we have to consider that they have been padding their stats against weaker teams.
For a BO1 match, 3.40 on Bifrost seems a bit too high since there aren't many reasons to believe their chances to upset the current NLC leader should be that low. Furthermore, the teams share the same 2.4 kill/death ratio, so it's unlikely that either team will stop the other. I'm taking Bofrost with a +8.5 kill handicap at 1.83 since they should at least keep this one close.
Riddle Esports vs Vanir
NLC 2022 Spring
Vanir are 4-2 three weeks into the spring split, which sits them well above Riddle Esports, who have managed only two (2-4). I did not expect Riddle to be as bad as they are, but we're still early into the season, so there is time for them to improve.
Although Vanir have lost two games, those two defeats came against Bifrost and JD|XL, who are two of the strongest teams in the league. Vanir played well against other squads, and I expect them to continue the trend where they'll look good against any team that is not X7, Bifrost, or JD|XL. On the other side, Riddle seems way too inconsistent, and their record perfectly illustrates that. They have lost against X7, MnM Gaming, Dusty, and Bifrost but won only against NYYRIKKI and Singularity, two of the league's weakest teams.
Bet365 has Vanir priced at 1.53 to win and Riddle Esports as 2.37 outsiders to cause an upset. The odds are very close to what I expected to see since I anticipate Vanir to win, but this is still a BO1 match, and Riddle can be good if they feel like it.
So instead of betting on a team, I'll take a shot with over 12.5 towers at 2.25. A lot of this will hinge on whether Riddle will show up and play a close game, but despite their weaknesses, this squad has enough talent to compete against other middle-table teams such as Vanir.
Team Singularity vs MnM Gaming
NLC 2022 Spring
No matter how you look at it, this match is MnM Gaming's to lose. They're 3-3, which isn't perfect, but it's much better than Team Singularity, who have yet to win a single match. And besides that, two of MnM's losses came against Bifrost and X7, so you can't really blame them for losing three games so far.
Maybe that's a topic for another day, but Astralis Talent have the talent to be one of the top teams in the league, even though their record (2-4) might not show it, and they lost to MnM Gaming, which shows that MnM have enough individual talent to compete for a strong finish.
I'm not a fan of huge kill handicaps, but Singularity have not shown anything so far that would make me believe they can cause an upset against MnM or come even close to it. Unless Team Singularity come up with a unique strategy, MnM should be able to pick up an easy win on Monday.
MnM Gaming -8.5 Kills
$1.83
