Sydney and Melbourne are both undefeated after three rounds of the season as some surprise results shocked during Round 3 of action. It was a round for the key forwards with Taylor Walker, Harry McKay and Josh Bruce all kicking a bag which should attract the umpire's eye, while Cam Guthrie was everywhere on Easter Monday in a statisically dominant effort.
Let's see if the umpires agree with our assessment with our Brownlow votes for Round 3 of the 2021 season.
Read on for our 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 3.
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 3
Collingwood 11.6.72 def by Brisbane 11.7.73
After being denied the same opportunity the week before, Zac Bailey was he hero with a goal after the siren to get the Lions home by a point! Hugh McLuggage was superb for the Lions with 28 disposals and 8 marks, with good support from Jarryd Lyons (29 disposals, 8 marks, 10 tackles). Brodie Grundy was the dominant big man on the ground with a whopping 54 hitouts to go with 28 disposals, Scott Pendlebury (30 disposals, 8 marks) was as good as ever and Jordan Roughead (20 disposals, 17 marks) was a rock in defence.
Hugh McLuggage – 2.5
Brodie Grundy – 2.5
Jarryd Lyons – 0.5
Jordan Roughead – 0.5
North Melbourne 5.9.39 def by Western Bulldogs 25.17.167
It was an embarrassing Good Friday for the Roos as they were pumped by the Dogs. The three votes should clearly be with Josh Bruce who bagged 10 goals from 21 disposals and 10 marks. Adam Treloar (27 disposals, 3 goals) and Josh Dunkley (33 disposals, 1 goal) should round out the votes. Jack Ziebell (33 disposals, 11 marks) padded his stats with kickouts from full back, but the reality is that the Roos didn’t win a single position on the ground.
Josh Bruce – 3
Adam Treloar – 2
Josh Dunkley - 1
Adelaide 14.11.95 def Gold Coast 12.13.85
Taylor Walker is in the form of his life as he inspired his Crows to a narrow win over the Suns. Walker bagged another 6 goals from 24 disposals and 9 marks in another imposing performance. It’s likely he’s leading the Brownlow and the Coleman after three rounds of the season. He was fed by Rory Sloane (34 disposals, 8 clearances), Brodie Smith (26 disposals) and Paul Seedsman (27 disposals). Brandon Ellis (25 disposals, 1 goal) and Noah Anderson (26 disposals) were among the best for the Suns.
Taylor Walker – 3
Rory Sloane – 2
Brodie Smith – 0.5
Brandon Ellis – 0.5
Richmond 10.12.72 def by Sydney 17.15.117
The young Swans might just be the real deal as they are off to a flyer in 2021 with wins over contenders Brisbane and now Richmond. Sam Wicks (21 disposals, 13 marks, 3 goals) and Chad Warner (20 disposals, 2 goals) are part of the new breed making an impact but it was also the experienced heads of Callum Mills (31 disposals, 8 marks, 8 clearances), Luke Parker (29 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) and Josh Kennedy (27 disposals, 7 clearances) that helped setup the win.
Sam Wicks – 3
Callum Mills – 1
Luke Parker – 1
Chad Warner - 1
Essendon 22.11.143 def St.Kilda 9.14.68
A huge win for the Bombers against a bitterly disappointing Saints team was setup in the middle by the dominance of Darcy Parish (34 disposals, 9 marks, 10 clearances) and Zach Merrett (34 disposals, 7 marks). Their work was finished off up forward by Cale Hooker (5 goals, 13 disposals, 6 marks) and Jake Stringer (4 goals, 12 disposals). Jack Steele was the only stand who could hold his head high after collecting 35 disposals, 7 clearances and a goal.
Darcy Parish – 2.5
Zach Merrett – 2.5
Jack Steele - 1
West Coast 16.12.108 def Port Adelaide 11.5.71
It was billed as a battle of the heavyweights but West Coast landed the knockout punch against a disappointing Power outfit. Luke Shuey (28 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) was superb in his return before going off late with injury while Andrew Gaff (36 disposals, 13 marks) found the footy for the first time this season. The final vote will be up for grabs with Jack Redden (31 disposals, 9 clearances), Tim Kelly (28 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) and Jeremy McGovern (18 disposals, 11 marks) all a chance.
Luke Shuey – 3
Andrew Gaff – 2
Tim Kelly – 0.5
Jack Redden – 0.5
Carlton 16.13.109 def Fremantle 9.10.64
The Blues have been threatening and they finally broke through for a big win over Freo. Harry McKay kicked a bag with 7 goals from 12 scoring shots, with 17 disposals and 10 marks in a commanding performance. He was fed by the brilliance of Patrick Cripps (34 disposals, 11 clearances, 2 goals) and Sam Walsh (37 disposals, 5 clearances) and it’s hard to see any votes coming from outside of those three.
Harry McKay – 3
Patrick Cripps – 2
Sam Walsh - 1
GWS Giants 11.2.68 def by Melbourne 15.12.102
The Giants copped some injuries but the Dees were too good to continue their good start to the season. Big Max Gawn was dominant with 28 hitouts, 24 disposals, 9 marks, 7 clearances and 2 goals. Christian Petracca (29 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Jack Viney (24 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances) and Kysaiah Pickett (4 goals, 13 disposals) were also among the best. Toby Greene (5 goals, 17 disposals) and Tim Taranto (32 disposals, 6 tackles) can hold their heads high for the Giants.
Max Gawn – 3
Christian Petracca – 2
Kysaiah Pickett – 0.5
Toby Greene – 0.5
Geelong 10.9.69 def Hawthorn 9.10.64
The Cats survived a late scare to get away with the points against the Hawks on Easter Monday. Cam Guthrie was everywhere with an enormous 43 disposals, 11 marks and 10 clearances in a clear best-on-ground performance. Mitch Duncan (37 disposals, 10 marks) was prominent while Mark O’Connor (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances) did a superb job of keeping Tom Mitchell quiet while gathering plenty of his own ball. Jaegar O’Meara (34 disposals, 8 marks, 13 clearances) was best for the Hawks.
Cam Guthrie – 3
Mitch Duncan – 2
Mark O’Connor – 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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