Today's Esports betting predictions take a look at three Counter-Strike: Global Offensive fixtures including Virtus.pro vs Wisla Krakow, OG vs Fnatic and Team Liquid vs MIBR, who will clash in the opening round of IEM Katowice Play-In stage. All games are scheduled for Tuesday, February 16 at 13:30 and 15:00 local time respectively.
Esports Betting Tips - Tuesday, February 16th
Virtus.pro vs Wisla Krakow
IEM Katowice Play-In
Virtus.pro and Wisla Krakow will meet on Tuesday, February 16, in the first round of IEM Katowice Play-In stage. Virtus.pro are billed as huge favourites, which does not surprise me, since they're a much stronger team, however, I don't expect to see a one-sided affair.
Despite VP's quality and the fact that they will almost certainly win this match, this is still a best-of-one fixture, where it's rarely smart to take the favourites. At this point, it's also important to note that BO1 format hasn't been used at the top tier of CS for a very long time, which won't do VP any favours.
These sides last met in November 2020, when Virtus.pro won with 16-14 on Dust2 and 16-7 on Mirage. That was also their only meeting in their history, however, since it has happened four months ago, it's not a very good indication of how this match will go.
At PickleBet, you can get $1.81 for over 24.5 rounds, which is probably the best bet we can take here. I don't see how Wisla can win, but they should at least come close to double digits.
OG vs Fnatic
IEM Katowice Play-In
On paper, this should be a closely contested match and considering the latest head-to-head results between OG and Fnatic it likely will be. These teams last met during cs_summit 7, when Fnatic won 2-1 with 16-9 on Train, 11-16 on mirage and 19-17 on Inferno.
As the record suggests, the match could have easily ended in OG's favour, but they simply ran out of luck that day and had to admit defeat. Only two months prior, OG won this match with 16-14 on Mirage and 16-5 on Overpass, so they definitely are capable of taking down Fnatic.
The odds on the Swedish squad seem a bit low which is likely due to their strong performance at the cs_summit 7, where they made it to the finals. However, if things went only slightly different in their clash with OG, it would likely be OG who would make it just as far, so I wouldn't overvalue Fnatic's success that much.
Like the Virtus.pro vs Wisla Krakow match, this one will be played as a BO1, meaning we can expect a bit more volatile and unpredictable results. This also suggests any team can win, so it makes perfect sense to take plus money on OG.
Team Liquid vs MIBR
IEM Katowice Play-In
Team Liquid demolished MIBR with 16-9 on Inferno and 16-6 on Vertigo just two days ago, so it makes sense to see them priced as 1.40 favourites. That result, however, does not mean we are in for another dominant showing from Liquid.
BO1 fixtures are not comparable to BO3, since there is a chance where the underdogs perform better on the first map and steal the win, at which point the game is over. Although I do not expect MIBR to win, they have looked good enough of late for me to say they are capable of keeping this match close.
Even though MIBR lost to Liquid last time out, they still won one map against Natus Vincere, Cloud9, Heroic and even beat FaZe Clan (2-1), which shows this team is not as weak as they're portrayed to be. That is not to say they have a legitimate chance to win their ticket for the main event, but they are good enough to put up a fight.
One option for this match would be to take a +3.5 round handicap on MIBR which is a good bet to take at PickleBet who offer odds of 1.89, but I find the over 26.5 maps far better option. The former suggests MIBR would win at least 13 rounds in a defeat, whereas the latter offers us a chance to bet on this match ending with at least one side winning 11 rounds. And if we assume Liquid will win, it's not hard to choose between the two options.
