NFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2023-24: Week 11

The main slate for Week 11 in the NFL will see 8 early window games, and only 3 in the late window. There are several divisional matchups in the early window, including Bears v Lions, Giants v Commanders, Titans v Jaguars, and Steelers v Browns. Then in the late window, a massive AFC East matchup between the Bills and Jets headlines the action, whilst the Seahawks and Rams will also battle it out in a divisional game. Plenty of rivalries then for this week in the NFL.

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NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 11

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott - $15,440

Prescott has been unstoppable the past 4 weeks, and this week he gets a Panthers’ defence that he should torch. Since week 6, Prescott leads the league in completion percentage over expected, highly accurate throw rate, passing touchdowns, passer rating, and yards per attempt. With Ceedee Lamb in tow, the Cowboys offense is looking as explosive as any other in the NFL right now. The only concern I have is the fact the Cowboys will be playing on Thanksgiving on a short week against the Commanders next Friday, but I don’t think it matters. Lock him in.

C.J. Stroud - $15,750

C.J. Stroud is already operating as a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. The discussion over who will win the Offensive Rookie of the Year was over weeks ago, with discussions already beginning for a Stroud MVP award. Whilst I believe that’s a stretch, Stroud is undoubtedly showing the Panthers on a weekly basis that they chose the wrong quarterback. Stroud gets the Cardinals this week, who are bottom 10 in the league in terms of points allowed to opposing quarterbacks per game. Since week 5, the Cardinals have given up the second-highest deep passer rating, fifth-most passing touchdowns, third-highest passer rating, and seventh-highest adjusted completion percentage. Stroud should torch this secondary.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs - $13,580

Jacobs gets a tough matchup the week against the Dolphins, however the volume he has been getting all season means he should give you a solid floor. Since the new coaching regime has taken over in Las Vegas, Jacobs has benefitted from an improved display by his offensive line. Whilst Jacobs hasn’t been explosive all season, he has continued to score well based on volume. This play is more on the fact I believe it’s a tough week for the biggest names in the running back market, with McCaffrey taking on the Bucs, Ekeler not quite back to full health, Etienne taking on a great run D in the Titans, and Barkley having to deal with stacked boxes with the Giants’ quarterback issues. 

Jahmyr Gibbs - $12,820

I was concerned last week with the return of David Montgomery, that Gibbs’ usage would fall off a cliff. Whilst it obviously dipped, Gibbs still took the majority of snaps, and crucially had snaps in the redzone. Gibbs currently ranks 2^nd in explosive run rate, 4^th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12^th in yards after contact per attempt. Whilst the Bears’ run defence has been much improved, I expect the Lions to use Gibbs in the passing game just as much as they use him between the tackles. Expect another big performance from Gibbs this week.

De’Von Achane - $11,940

Achane makes his comeback this week from a 6-week knee injury, in a boom or bust fantasy situation here. There’s obviously concerns that the Dolphins won’t want to rush Achane back, so a dip in his snap share is to be expected. With Achane still questionable at the time of writing, obviously check the final injury report before selecting Achane, but with an upside of 50+ points for under $12k, Achane must be a consideration this week in your squads.

Wide Receivers

Ceedee Lamb - $16,290

Much like Prescott, Lamb has been on fire the past 4 weeks. In that time, Lamb has a 32.9% target share, 41.3% air-yard share, 3.93 yards per route run, and a 34.8% first-read share. These numbers somehow increase against single-high safety looks, of which the Panthers rank 3^rd in the league since week 6. Lamb has at least 117 receiving yards in the past 4 games, and over 150 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks. Against a Panthers defence that is hanging by a thread, Lamb should eat once again. 

Jaylen Waddle - $12,920

Waddle still seems underpriced for mine, and he could have a big game this week. The Dolphins take on the Raiders this week, who defend in zone coverage at the third highest rate in the league. Since week 5, Waddle’s numbers against zone have been interesting, with a 22.8% target share, 33.5% air-yard share, 2.95 yards per route run, and a 26.6% first-read share. Waddle also ranks 1^st in expected points per route run, and 6^th in fantasy points per route run against zone in this time. Whilst Tyreek Hill is the obvious WR1, Waddle has a big chance to eat this week.

Christian Kirk - $10,300

Kirk and the Jags get a Titans defence that is a pass funnel, having conceded the 8^th most points per game to opposing wide receivers. Since week 6, the Titans are utilizing two-high safeties at the 10^th highest rate in the league. Against two-high, Kirk’s numbers all improve, with a 27.8% target share, 32.9% air-yard share, 2.45 yards per route run, and a 35.1% first-read share. At close to WR3 money, Kirk should easily get you solid WR2 numbers, with borderline WR1 upside.

Tight Ends

George Kittle - $10,250

Kittle takes on the Buccaneers this weekend, with the Bucs being a bottom third of the league team against tight ends this season and have been worse the past few weeks. Tampa Bay is deploying more single-high as the season goes on, and Kittle explodes against single-high safety looks. In the games with Deebo Samuel, Kittle garners a 17.9% target share, 22.8% air-yard share, 3.28 yards per route run, and 20.3% air-yard share. Since week 7, the Bucs concede the 7^th most fantasy points per game, and 4^th most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Trey McBride - $9,320

Where has this guy come from? Since taking over as the TE1 for the Cardinals, the 2^nd year Colorado State tight end has been phenomenal. With two scores above 24 in the past 3 weeks, McBride has solid upside for a tight end. This week, he gets a great matchup against the Texans, who concede the most points per game to opposing tight ends, and the fifth-highest receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. Since week 8, McBride amongst tight ends ranks 2^nd in target share (31.5%), 3^rd in air-yard share (34.5%), 2^nd in yards per route run (3.02), and 1^st in first-read share (38.2%).

D/ST

Cleveland Browns - $6,770

The Browns continue to be one of the best defences in the league and continue to get you solid points in fantasy. In the past 4 weeks, the Browns D/ST has scores of 16, 5, 23, and 15. This week, they take on a Steelers team, with the current total in the market set at 33, easily the lowest of the season. The Browns rank 5^th in the league in sacks, and rank 9^th in the league in takeaways. The Steelers have the 6^th fewest points in the NFL this season, and I expect a low scoring, brutal affair between these two AFC North rivals.

New York Jets - $4,700

This one is a bit more speculative, given the Jets are taking on one of the best offenses in the league, in the Buffalo Bills. The Jets have been a thorn in the side of the Bills and Josh Allen, and I’m banking on that happening again this week. Since Josh Allen entered the league, the Bills have only reached 20 points three times against the Jets defence. The Jets have conceded the fifth-least amount of points this season in the NFL, and rank 9^th in takeaways. In week 1, the Jets D/ST units managed 20 points against the Bills. A high upside swing at a cheap D/ST option this week.

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