A cracking matchup for Monday Night Football in Week 10, as the suddenly hot Los Angeles Rams host the Miami Dolphins, who are desperate to snap a 3-game losing streak to keep their playoff hopes alive. This could honestly go either way, and with plenty of points predicted, should have you glued to your tv sets on Tuesday!
NFL Week 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins
SoFi Stadium, Tuesday 12th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Rams are coming off an exhilarating overtime win last week over the Seattle Seahawks, winning 26-20, after trailing by 10 points at halftime. It was the Rams’ third straight win, but they were the beneficiaries of some turnover luck, as the Seahawks managed more yards, more yards per play, and more yards per pass play. But with three turnovers, the Seahawks were their own worst enemy, and the result proved a little bit phony in my opinion for the Rams.
The Dolphins were on the opposite side of close results last week, going down 30-27 to the Bills in a cracking game, which was won by the Bills on the back of a 61-yard Tyler Bass field goal with 10 seconds left on the clock. Tua Tagovailoa looked back to his best, throwing for 254 yards on 25-28 passing, with two touchdowns and no picks, whilst the offense was spread around nicely, with 6 different receivers managing multiple receptions. The Dolphins appear to be back to their pre-concussion Tua form and should be viewed as an above average team moving forward.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Rams
Troy Reeder (LB) – OUT
Tyler Higbee (TE) – OUT
Rob Havenstein (OT) – OUT
Neville Gallimore (DT) – OUT
Kamren Curl (S) – Questionable
Kevin Dotson (G) – Questionable
Miami Dolphins
Austin Jackson (OT) – OUT
Cameron Goode (LB) – OUT
Isaiah Wynn (OG) – OUT
Bradley Chubb (OLB) – OUT
Braxton Berrios (WR) – OUT
Jevon Holland (S) – Questionable
Tyreek Hill (WR) – Questionable
Match Preview
The -Dolphins and Rams last met in week 8 of the 2020 season in Miami, with the Dolphins running out 28-17 winners. It was an unbelievable result, as the Dolphins only managed 145 total net yards, compared to the Rams’ 471. Despite a mammoth game from Jared Goff, who threw for 355 yards, the Rams lost in one of the more extraordinary box scores you are ever likely to see. I take nothing from this result, however it’s an interesting game to look back on.
The Rams’ opened 3-point favourites on the lookahead for this matchup, before re-opening as 2.5-point favourites after last weekend’s games. This move seemed completely justified, given how well the Dolphins played last week. This opinion has continued through the week, with the Rams now sitting as short 1.5-point favourites. I make this contest very close to a pick em’ and see some solid value here in the underdog to win the game outright. The Dolphins are in a must-win situation here, and I’ll take them to get the job done.
The total was 49.5 on the lookahead, before bumping up to 50.5 on re-open. It has been bet down to 49, and I believe this is on the news of Tyreek Hill being questionable. Hill pops up on the injury report quite often, and always seems to be good to go on game day. I trust he will be ready to go, and an 80% Tyreek Hill is still good enough to get the job done. I make a fair total lower (47.5), but in ideal conditions I can’t bet on an under between these two explosive offenses. I’ll steer clear of the total for now.
Looking at props, and I’ll take Dolphins running back De’Von Achane to have a big game on the ground, and through the air. The Rams defence against the run isn’t anything special, and they rank dead last in the league in terms of DVOA against receiving backs. If you’re not confident Achane can get the ground game going, over 42.5 receiving yards is also a good bet, but I’ll take the over 119.5 all purpose yards from Achane at $2.88. In the past two games with Tua back, Achane is averaging 134 all-purpose yards per game.
Prop Bet
De’Von Achane (over) 119.5 rushing and receiving yards - $2.88 at Unibet (1u)
Dolphins to Win
$2.16 (2 Units)
