Two games scheduled for the penultimate day of the 2022/23 NFL season this Sunday, with plenty on the line in both matchups. First, we head to Sin City, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to sew up the number 1 seed in the AFC, as they face off with Divisional rivals the Las Vegas Raiders. Then, the AFC South Title is on the line, as the Tennessee Titans head to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the winner taking the AFC South and the 4th seed in the AFC playoffs.
Our bets were void in Week 17 Monday Night Football, after the tragic situation that played out between the Bills and Bengals. Thankfully, it sounds as though Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin is doing well, and hopefully his health continues to improve.
Ben Bridge brings us his NFL betting tips for Sunday's action below!
NFL 2022-23: Week 18 Sunday Games Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Sunday 8:30am AEDT
Plenty of permutations have been sifted through during the week, after the Bills/Bengals game was declared a ‘no contest’. The decision has resulted in the Chiefs being in a position to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC, and a first-round bye, with a win against the Raiders this week. This is a massive deal, as not only will the Chiefs receive a much-needed week off, but they will also avoid playing the Bills or Bengals until the AFC Championship game. So, there is no doubt they have the motivation to come out this week and leave it all on the field.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff position. However, I believe they will still have motivation to win this game. A win is not going to adversely affect their draft position too much, and Head Coach Josh McDaniels wants to see what he has with new starting QB Jarrett Stidham. If he can show out against a motivated Chiefs team, maybe the Raiders confidence increases that they have their QB for next season, and they can move forward. Added to this, why wouldn’t they want to hurt the Chiefs’ chances of winning the Super Bowl, with a loss here severely cutting into the Chiefs’ Super Bowl equity.
The lookahead was Chiefs -9.5, before opening at the same number. Raiders’ money came in, pulling the Chiefs down to 7.5-point favourites, however that has bumped back up towards -9/-9.5. I can only really get to Chiefs -7, and that’s assuming Stidham is a sizeable downgrade from Derek Carr. Small stakes as if the Raiders go down early it could be a blood bath, but I like them to keep it tight. I’ll buy the extra point as 9 is a dead number, and bet the Raiders to cover +8.5.
Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5)
$1.97 (1.5 units)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field, Sunday 12:15pm AEDT
Everything is on the line in this AFC South showdown, with the winner guaranteeing themselves a spot in the Playoffs as the number 4 seed, and a home playoff game in week 1. For the loser of the game, the ramifications are different. If the Titans lose, they cannot make the Playoffs. The Jaguars, however, have a slim chance at still making the playoffs with a loss. If they lose on Sunday, the Jaguars will need the Bills to beat the Patriots, and the Jets to beat the Dolphins. These two results aren’t certain, but it gives the Jags something to hope for if they lose.
This is a tough game to handicap. I have the Jaguars as a 5.5-point better team than the Titans on a neutral field, so the current market of Jags -6/6.5 is pretty much spot on my number. But how can I be confident in a rating for the Titans, with Joshua Dobbs lining up at Quarterback for the Titans? I can’t be, and as such I will be once again looking at a team total in this one.
Last week, we took the Cowboys to score points against the Titans, however that was more down to the number of players the Titans were resting, particularly on defence. This week, the Titans get back several key pieces on defence. With this being the biggest NFL game of Trevor Lawrence’s young career, I don’t mind the Jaguars to go under their team total (23.5). The efficiency of the Jags’ offence scares me off this though, so I will look at the Titans team total.
The Titans scored 13 points against a woeful Cowboys’ defence last week. Yes, they do get Derrick Henry back this week, however I see them struggling to score in this one. The Jags defence has slowly been getting better, and if they can shut Derrick Henry down, relatively speaking, I expect the Titans to struggle to score more than 17 points.
Titans Total Points Under 16.5 points
$1.95 (1 unit)
