Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 5th.
We have an eight-race card headlined by two Group 1’s – the Robert Sangster Stakes (UBET Classic) and the Australasian Oaks (Schweppes Oaks). There’s also two Group 2’s, a Group 3 and a Listed race among the supporting races.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Be sure to also check out our Flemington and Rosehill tips here, and tune in to Episode 33 of the Before You Bet Podcast below!
MORPHETTVILLE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Savapinski
Best Value: Race 5 #4 First Among Equals EW
RACE 1
Three that I’m mainly interested in here. (5) Heaven’s Deal is a Spirit Of Boom filly that bolted in on debut to win by 5L, with a further 2L back to 3rd. That was over 1000m at Murray Bridge. This is obviously a sharp step up in class to a Saturday Listed race, but the Spirit Of Boom juveniles have been exceptional all season and on the ease of that victory she can go close here. (9) She Will Rise is on debut for the Lindsay Park team. You always have to respect this stable’s two-year-olds, particularly when they’re on debut in a race like this. Her jumpouts at Flemington have been sound and she is bred to handle the soft 6 surface should it remain that way. Draws favourably in barrier 1 and will go close. (3) Winning Partner represents the Tony McEvoy stable with Jamie Kah on board. Ran 2nd on debut back in December and resumes from a spell today. On debut he jumped very slowly but made ground in the straight, so I won’t be letting him go around at double figure odds without something on. (1) Gytrash brings genuine Saturday form, while (2) Sanglier brings Melbourne city form, but I have some queries over his form and he looks very short to me. Hard to comment on some of the others with no public trials to go off.
TIP: (5) Heaven’s Deal / (3) Winning Partner EW
RACE 2
Looks a genuine match race between (2) Waging War and (8) Silent Warrior. Waging War has returned in terrific form this preparation. He won first up over 1250m, was then beat a nose over 1200m, before going to Melbourne and bolting in by 3L when stepped up to the mile. He steps up to 2000m today, which normally is some query, but this horse has won all the way up to 2200m before, so the sharp rise in distance is less of an issue. Silent Warrior is the one he’ll have to reel in, as he’s likely to find the front and make it a genuine test over the 2000m. He won back-to-back races by a combined 7.8L before being overrun by Chequered Flag last start. The positives for him are that he’s now had two solid runs over 2000m leading into today’s race and he’ll likely have a good headstart on Waging War around the home turn. If he makes it another hard-run 2000m, the soft lead up run from Waging War could find him out. But I’ll be sticking with the favourite.
TIP: (2) Waging War
RACE 3
The way I had this race mapped out in my head originally is completely different to how I’ve ended up, purely based on the expected soft ground we’ll be running on. I was very keen to take on (5) Ken’s Dream at first but with the ground likely to be wet, I’ve got him on top. The wide draw probably suits him with that in mind, and his record on wet ground is outstanding. He was only fair last start when stepped up to 1600m for the first time in his career and with that run under the belt, we should see him improve today. With that said, he’s short enough at $3.70. Conversely, (2) Lite’n In My Veins is now worth risking. I thought he’d be hard to beat on first look, but the wet ground isn’t in his favour. He’s won just once from five attempts on soft tracks, so despite him winning his past two starts over this track and distance, I’ll be taking him on at that short quote. The value could be (3) Balf’s Choice at $15. Barrier 1 might not be ideal, but his effort first up was better than it looked and his record at this distance and his record on soft ground are both terrific. He’s had four starts for two wins at this track and distance (five wins and three placings from 10 starts at the distance overall), with five wins from seven starts on wet ground. (7) Mihany has run well in both starts over this track and distance. He’d prefer it rock hard rather than wet but expect him to run well. (6) Raw Impulse is the horse I’m terrified of. Lane takes the ride for Weir, which in itself suggests he’s a big chance. He’s got a great second up record and his record on wet ground is also good, but last preparation he took a number of starts to get fit and find his best form, so he might still need more racing?
TIP: (5) Ken’s Dream / (3) Balf’s Choice EW
RACE 4
Looks a two-horse race. (1) Viridine was murdered by Bowman in the Arrowfield Sprint last start, so I’m pleased to see Kerrin McEvoy taking the ride today. The form behind In Her Time from two starts ago is strong, and the positive with the wide barrier is at least the horse will get an uninterrupted run. The horse to beat, according to the market, is boom sprinter (2) Nature Strip, who was also on the receiving end of a slaughter last start. I don’t think there’s much doubt that he should have won, but the fact remains he was beaten by Sam’s Image. This is his biggest test, but he does draw very well in barrier 4 and will undoubtedly have first run on Viridine, which could count late on. I suppose (3) Isaurian isn’t completely hopeless – he was also given a dud steer by Bowman on the same day as Viridine last start. His form prior to that was plenty good enough to be competitive. I’d prefer to take the $3.80 about Viridine rather than $2.30 for Nature Strip.
TIP: (1) Viridine
RACE 5
Nice little Group 3 sprint here. Three mainly that appeal to me and we can probably back all three at the odds. (3) Casino Wizard has had two runs this preparation and both have been luckless. First up he was cast three-wide without cover on the speed before fading to be beaten 2.6L. Last start he was checked severely at the 100m and lost all momentum, eventually beaten 1.9L by Dainty Tess and Viddora. Those two are live chances in the Sangster later in the day. His third up record is terrible but he’s still way over the odds at $15. (4) First Among Equals is another that looks value at $9.50. He’s another one that’s had two starts this prep without a lot of luck. First up he finished last in the Hareeba Stakes at Mornington but he was held up at the 300m mark and again at the 100m mark. Last start he drew wide at Caulfield and settled near the back of the field before working home in the fastest late sectionals of the race. He was beaten 2.25L by (7) Sprightly Lass on that occasion, but with the good barrier draw and good third up record, he can turn the tables today. Sprightly Lass is the last one of interest and deserves plenty of respect with a record of five wins and two 2nds from seven starts. She’ll bounce straight to the front from the wide barrier and from there she’ll be hard to run down. $4.80 seems a reasonable price. I’ll be backing all three.
TIP: (7) Sprightly Lass / (4) First Among Equals EW
RACE 6
The Group 1 Australasian Oaks. Very keen to bet here as I think there’s four or five main chances, with some of those at good odds. (5) Sopressa ($5) bolted in to win the Schweppervescence Stakes over 1800m last start, atoning for a completely luckless run two starts ago. She drew barrier 1 last start and went on to win by 4.3L, so with barrier 1 again today, she rates a huge chance. The Schweppervescence has proved a strong lead up race for this race. Sopressa may have won the race, but the stablemate (6) Pleasuring was arguably the run of the race back in 4th. The Tasmanian Oaks winner drew wide in barrier 11 and ended up 15th in the run before peeling wide and motoring home with the best final 400m sectional of the race. It’s extremely notable that Damian Lane jumps off (4) Think Bleue (who he has ridden to victory in her past two starts) to ride Pleasuring, who he steered to success in Tasmania. From barrier 8 she’ll be much closer in the run today (settled midfield in the Tas Oaks), and $15 looks well over the odds. (7) Savacool ($5.50) follows a very similar path to stablemate Egg Tart, who won this race last year. She’s had two starts this preparation and comes into this off a last-start win over 1600m in Melbourne. She’s never finished outside the top two from her six career starts, and although she has a difficult draw to contend with here, she gets Damien Oliver on board. Rates highly. (9) Temple Of Bel is another good roughie in the race at $12. I’ve always had a lot of time for this filly, who looks to have returned well after a setback forced her to miss the Spring. She was very good in her first start for Tony McEvoy last start, charging home to be beaten 0.1L over 1600m at Caulfield. She’s always given the indication that 2000m would suit and it’d be no surprise to see her right in the finish here. (12) Sheezdashing has had a relatively luckless campaign but has showed her true ability in her past two starts, both narrow defeats behind Savacool and Think Bleue. Slightly worse off at the weights today but still has genuine claims at $17. Savacool goes on top but Pleasuring the big value in the race, along with Temple Of Bel.
TIP: (7) Savacool / (6) Pleasuring EW
RACE 7
The Group 1 UBET Classic (Robert Sangster Stakes). What a field we have here, with as many as eight to 10 chances on paper. The big query for me is (2) Viddora drawing barrier 1. She’s the best horse in the race, in my opinion, but is likely to be buried away on the fence from barrier 1. There’s every chance she’ll need to navigate traffic in the straight, but with such a big field and a possibly deteriorating track, they might fan out all over the track, creating gaps on the inside? I think if she gets an uninterrupted run, she’ll win, but there’s absolutely no guarantee of that happening. (3) Super Cash has a tremendous first up record, with five wins from six starts, including last prep when she defeated Flamberge and Merchant Navy. The concern with her is that she’s just got the one win from nine starts over 1200m. (4) Missrock comes out of two genuine Group 1 races and wasn’t beaten far in either. She’s fresh coming into this off a 54-day break and could go close. WA mare (5) Dainty Tess caused an upset in the Irwin Stakes where she defeated Viddora. She’s basically third up into this and has never finished outside the top two from four starts when third up. Drawn perfectly in barrier 5 and based on last start you’d have to consider her a chance. I’ve seen her quite a bit over here in the West and my query is that I don’t think she’s a genuine top-liner. (6) Quilista is absolutely flying with three wins on the bounce. She’ll go straight to the front here and will be very hard to run down. She proved two starts ago that the wet ground isn’t an issue. (7) Whispering Brook is the stablemate of Quilista and bounced back to form last star after failing as a very short-priced favourite two starts ago. Untested on wet ground. (9) Pedrena is the value for mine at $23. She’s finished in the top two in eight of her 10 career starts. She was unlucky first up last prep over this distance and although she’s possibly better over 1400m, she’s still very good at 1200m and could finish hard at the end of a strongly-run 1200m. Untested on wet ground but bred by Mossman so should handle it. (14) Shoals was a Group 1 winner last time we saw her but she’s definitely better at 1400m. (15) Catchy is another that returned to her best form in Sydney last start, but she won’t want a wet track at all. (1) Secret Agenda won this race last year, defeating Viddora, and has wet track form but I’d have preferred to have seen more from her last start.
Not a confident betting race at all! Super Cash on top with her good fresh form, Pedrena the clear value, but Quilista and Viddora very live chances.
TIP: (3) Super Cash / (9) Pedrena EW
RACE 8
Looks a nice race for (1) Savapinski with the set weights and penalties conditions. She was an easy Group 2 winner over 2000m back in the Spring and returned with a good hit-out first up in Sydney in a strong race. She’s won her only second up run previously and will be hard to run down from the front today at $3.40. There’s a number of interesting runners involved that could cause a boil over, though. (4) Tiamo Grace was good first up and fair second up but went backwards on wet ground at Caulfield last start, when the market predicted as much. They’ve pressed on to this race but she’s likely to find a wet track once again. You never really know with this stable whether it was the wet ground or not last start. $34 is a big price. (5) Tahanee is from the same stable and although she hasn’t done much in two starts back from a spell, she hadn’t done anything of note before winning at Flemington during the Spring. Basically, that shows that Weir can get these horses to peak for their grand finals. Third up here with a good draw, she could show sharp improvement at $26. (6) Quilate looks a decent each way chance at $16. She ran well over 1100m first up and steps straight up to 1600m today. For any other stable, that would be an enormous concern, but this is about the only stable that I can trust in doing that. She’s got a good second up record and Kerrin McEvoy takes over the ride today which is a big positive. Mark Zahra umps on (7) Flying Jess who can pop up and run a good race in these sorts of races, while (2) French Emotion comes off a good win in Melbourne but her record over 1600m is a concern. Savapinski on top, Quilate the value, but wouldn’t rule out the Weir runners.
TIP: (1) Savapinski / (6) Quilate EW
QUADDIE
2, 3, 4, 7
5, 6, 7, 9, 12
1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9
1, 2, 4, 5, 6
$100 = 16.66%
