Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 16th.
The Group 1 Goodwood headlines the nine-race card on the third and final day of the South Australian racing carnival. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 but with clear weather leading up to Saturday, we should be back on a Good surface come race day.
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race at Morphettville below!
Morphettville Racing Tips: 2020 Goodwood Day
Best Bet: Race 8 - (3) Gytrash
Best Value: Race 7 - (8) Dexter You Devil
Race 1 - BM80 Hcp 2030m (Market)
Was originally very keen on Orleans Rock here but he's been scratched. (4) Mahis Angel is the way I'll go each way. He won over the mile here last time out, defeating France's Boy who came out and ran 2nd again two weeks ago. He's still only had three starts this prep so there may still be more improvement to come stepping up in distance. (2) War Tiger won here two starts ago but could only manage 3rd last start back in Melbourne. There hasn't been a single horse come out of that race and win since, and that was run five weeks ago so there is obvious queries with the form. War Tiger actually beat (1) Farooq in his win here two starts ago and they meet at level weights, so you'd think War Tiger would have him covered again. Happy to take on both of them and side with Orleans Rock and Mahis Angel.
(4) Mahis Angel E/W
$6.50
Race 2 - G3 National Stakes 1200m (Market)
(7) Hard Rock Girl has been in great form this prep. She won her first two runs in Melbourne before coming over to Adelaide. In her first run across the border she led and faded to finish 5th behind Ecumenical, before running a good race for 2nd behind Forever Free last time out. She was held up at a crucial point in the home straight too, so she did well to finish just a length off the winner. She draws barrier 1 again here so she'll need luck, but she's racing consistently and should be around the mark again at $5.50. (6) Diala comes across to Adelaide having won two of her three starts in Melbourne this preparation. The query for me is both have been on wet tracks. (1) Yule My Hero ran a good race at huge odds last start, finishing 2.8L off Forever Free and 1.7L behind Hard Rock Girl. Her run two starts ago was a forgive run after being caught wide, and prior to that she won. She looks value once againa t $17. (8) Zoushine continues to run well but she just keeps finding one or two better. I was with her last start when the blinkers went on but she still only managed 3rd. She'll be around the mark again.
(7) Hard Rock Girl E/W
$5.50
Race 3 - BM72 Hcp 1050m (Market)
(10) Fortune Follows returned with a very good win first up over the 1000m, coming from last to get up right along the fence to win. That was only his third career start so you'd suggest there would be more natural improvement to come, but I do think he's short enough at $2.40. He's drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 and would have to go back again from that gate, you'd think. I concede he's the one to beat but I'd rather take the bigger price about (7) Symphonette, who also returned from a spell with a very good run. She was caught three-wide the trip back in the field but still ran home strongly to be beaten less than a length. The winner has since come out and run very well - Mum's My Hero probably should have won again last weekend - so the form is strong. She's got a good second up record and should get conditions to suit. Just needs a better run in transit from the wide gate again and she should be very competitive. (5) Quiddick could be the value first up at $11. She failed in her only start last preparation but she was put straight back out for a spell. She's got a good first up record overall and a good record at the track and distance. If she can find her form from a couple of preps ago, she would be right in this. (6) Star Hills should be peaking third up and his first two runs back from a spell have been good.
Race 4 - BM64 Hcp 1200m (Market)
(7) Lunar Light looks well placed today. She's raced in Listed company her past two starts but has been outclassed. Gets a big drop in class back to a BM64 today. In a similar race three starts ago, she sat three-wide the trip and still finished strongly to run 3rd, right alongside (13) Calypso Reign who she meets again today at similar weights. Lunar Light gets the blinkers on for the first time, Ethan Brown takes the ride and she draws well in 3 so should be hard to beat in this. (4) Exeter is one I've followed in his first two starts of the prep. He ran home really well first up, recording the equal-fastest final 400m, matched only by the winner. Last start, while he may have looked disappointing, I think he just peaked on his run the final 200m. He ran the fastest two splits of the race between the 600m-200m, in fact his split from the 400m-200m was the fastest of the entire meeting. Third up today, back onto a good track, so long as he can get a good run from the gate, I think he'll run a good race at odds. (2) I'm A Legend comes off a win on the Parks track last start and the key for him is the firm track. He ran on wet ground three races in a row leading into last start and was ordinary in all of them, but prior to that ran really well at Canterbury on frim ground. Overall, he's finished in the placings in eight of his 10 starts on good ground. Include him in your numbers at $13. Lunar Light on top, Exeter the value and I'm A Legend certainly not hopeless.
Race 5 - G3 TAB SA Fillies Classic 2500m (Market)
Tough race this but will be keeping it pretty simple. (3) Realm Of Flowers goes on top. She saluted as a short-priced favourite at Murray Bridge last start and while that form appears very ordinary, her form in town prior to that was good. She ran 3rd in the Laelia Stakes and then 6th in the Schweppervescence, where she came from a long way back in the field and worked home nicely. She dodged the Oaks and went to that race at Murray Bridge instead, and now steps up to 2500m which really looks to suit based on how she's been running. (2) Silent Sovereign won the Schweppervescence where she beat Realm Of Flowers by 3.9L, and she just had no luck in the Oaks last start. She copped a nasty check at the 1800m and lost her position, then had to work four-wide at the 800m and understandably weakened out. Forgive her for that and she should be hard to beat here.
(3) Realm Of Flowers
$3.80
Race 6 - Listed AAMI Centaurea Stakes 2030m (Market)
Again another open race with plenty of horses you could make a case for. (2) Girl Tuesday probably has a class edge over these though. She had no luck at all in the Hawkesbury Cup last start, held up badly in the straight and she went to the line untested with plenty to offer. She shouldn't have that problem from barrier 8 here and while she's never won over this distance before, she has won over 1800m and as mentioned, looks to be the class runner. She'll get a good track which she needs and she looks the one to beat. (7) Lamu has been very good in two starts in Australia. She probably should have won last start when held up at a crucial stage of the straight. Third up, well drawn and up to 2000m should find her very hard to beat at a decent price. (4) Naivasha has won her past two starts and is flying since joining the Danny O'Brien stable. She's previously been unsuccessful at this distance but she's a new horse this prep. The draw is obviously tough for her as she'll be a long way back once again and will need to be good, but it's hard to knock her. (5) Bea Tempted ran well first up and has won at this track and distance previously. Include her at $26. (13) Oasis Girl is a horse I really like but both of her wins this prep have been on heavy ground. She draws a lovely gate and gets in light but I'll take her on today.
Race 7 - G3 R A Lee Stakes 1600m (Market)
(9) Harbour Views looks to have found a very nice race at his second run back from a spell. He was good in defeat first up, working home well on the heavy ground behind Buffalo River. Up to the mile second up and back onto firmer ground are both positives. He's undefeated from his previous two second up runs and should take plenty of beating here. (8) Dexter You Devil looks a bit of value at $10. He's absolutely flying. He won consecutive races at Port Lincoln before dropping in distance on his return to town last start. He was back in the field and held up badly in the straight before charging home to run 2nd. Back up in distance now, he's won two from three at the track and distance, and he looks a great chance at good odds. (12) Chapel City looks a huge price at $91. We were on him at about $41 last start and he ran well as expected. He's never missed a place from five starts at the mile at Morphettville and he's placed in five of his seven starts when third up from a spell. Draws well again and is a blowout chance at huge odds. (13) Seabrook found a perfect race last start but couldn't get the job done. There was some query over why they decided to hand up the lead, which ultimately proved costly, so don't be surprised to see them try to lead today.
Value: (8) Dexter You Devil $10
Race 8 - G1 Goodwood 1200m (Market)
Sticking with (3) Gytrash here who arrives in career best form coming into this. He won at Group 1 level first up, ran consecutive placings in G1 level second and third up, before bolting in to win the G3 Irwin Stakes over 1100m here last start. Now the obvious query is he beat Sunlight on that occasion and she failed horribly last start, but I don't think that's any reason to jump off the Gordon Richards-trained sprinter today. Just has the wide draw to overcome. (4) Sunlight could be the value here. As mentioned, she failed horribly in the Sangster Stakes last start, but there's a few things to consider. She started basically equal-favourite with Gytrash first up. She then started a well-backed favourite in the Sangster, meaning the market expected her to go very close to winning. She has a good SP profile for this. She's undefeated from four career starts when third up from a spell. She gets blinkers on for the first time. She failed last prep in the Everest before bouncing back to run a huge race in the Golden Eagle. She also gets back on to a good track, which is a huge positive for her. Draws well in barrier 3, she's a legitimate Group 1 star on her day, and today we're getting $10 to find out if she's cooked or if her run last start was a one off. I'll be backing her again at those odds. (11) Lyre was very good in defeat in the Sangster, working home strongly from back in the field. (2) Trekking looks primed third up from a spell but the jury is out on (1) Santa Ana Lane who just hasn't looked the same horse this preparation. (14) Amberdi could be thrown in numbers for value hunters. She also worked home well in the Sangster. (7) The Inevitable has plenty of fans and he comes into this on the back of a good run at Flemington last start. He's undefeated third up from a spell. Sticking with the locals Gytrash and Sunlight here!
Race 9 - G3 TAB Proud Miss Stakes 1200m (Market)
It's a wide-open race to conclude the carnival, there's probably 10 winning chances. (2) Humma Humma is our current favourite but I'll be taking her on. She's never won at this distance from nine attempts. (4) Mystery Love won impressively first up in Melbourne before failing on the heavy track last start. Back onto a firmer surface should be ideal for her and she should get her chance to sit off them and pounce. (8) Equal Love won first up but hasn't had any luck since then. Two starts back she was trapped three-wide the trip behind subsequent Group 1 winner Bella Vella, and last start she was held up the entire straight. She appeals at $12. (9) Magna Bella returned with a great run first up last week and backs up quickly this week. She'll need to come from a long way back but she really hit the line well last start. (17) Lakhani Rose was another that caught the eye last week, charging home from back in the field to be beaten a nose. She draws horribly again but she's finished in the top two in her past five starts and if she gets a start, she can run well again. Almost a field job in the quaddie!
Value: (8) Equal Love $12
