Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Derby Day at Morphettville on Saturday, May 9th.
The second day of the South Australian racing carnival features the G1 South Australian Derby. The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there's plenty of rain predicted on both Friday and Saturday, so I'd expect that to be downgraded. The rail is out 3m.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for Derby Day below!
Morphettville Racing Tips: 2020 Derby Day
Best Bet: Race 3 - (2) One More Jack
Best Value: Race 7 - (5) Viera & (14) Miss Jane $34
Race 1 - Sabois 3YO BM64 1000m (Market)
We're on the Parks track to start the day. I think the $18 for (9) Utah Joe is also over the odds. He ran a big race first up at Murray Bridge and then had no luck at all here last start, with the jockey spending the whole straight trying to get clear running. Will need luck again from barrier 1 but can be included in numbers at the odds. (6) Dixon Street bolted in first up at Gawler but what concerns me is they elect to claim on her with Georgina Cartwright rather than stable jockey Barend Vorster taking the ride on her. With the scratchings in the race he does look hard to beat but I'll take him on with (1) The General, who was defeated as a well-backed odds-on favourite last start at Cranbourne, where they somehow elected to take a sit rather than lead, which is what he'd done in his first two career wins. I think they'll be trying to lead here and with the scratchings, he might be able to run them into the ground.
Race 2 - G3 TAB SA Sires Produce 1400m (Market)
On the Parks track again here and this looks to be a two-horse race. (7) Ecumenical has won three of her four career starts, and she's unlucky not to be four from four. The one she lost is when Anna Jordsjo had her planted four-wide the trip as favourite and she was beaten less than 2L. But since then, she's bounced back with two more victories, including a dominant effort last start over 1200m here on the Parks track. She's won both starts on wet ground, she draws well in barrier 3, and she's given no indication that she won't handle the step up to 1400m. She's the one to beat. (3) Indictment looks the danger. He was very good on debut at Caulfield on a day where you couldn't make any ground at all. He then ran 3rd in the Listed ANZAC Day Stakes at Flemington last start, beaten 0.7L by Flying Award after sitting three-wide the trip. He shouldn't have any problems with the ground, nor the distance, and he draws a gate here in barrier 2. He's the only one I can see beating the favourite. (4) Vancouver Velvet can be thrown in at huge odds. He's $35 and although beaten 5.5L on debut, he actually did a good job to finish that close given where he came from in the run. He steps up sharply in trip here which looks to suit.
Race 3 - Autumn Series Final 1400m (Market)
The last of the races on the Parks track for the meeting. I'm struggling to work out how we're getting $3.60 about (2) One More Jack here. He's won six from six this prep, including his last three in town on the main track here at Morphettville. There's only two tiny queries. The first is the fact this is his first go on the Parks track, but he's won six races on three different tracks this prep so I'm not too concerned about that. And the second is the 1400m. The only time he's gone close to losing this prep was over 1350m at Strathalbyn - he's been dominant in the rest of his wins which have all been over 1200m, but he did have a real fight on his hands in that race over the longer trip. But even so, I think he's a very clear top pick here and I think $3.50 is a terrific bet. (9) She's Never Late is the value in the race at $8.50 and for mine, she's the danger to the favourite. She's flying. She was a dominant winner second up over 1350m at Strathalbyn, before dropping back to 1200m last weekend and working home strongly to be beaten 0.5L in 3rd. Back up in distance to 1400m now, which will suit her much better, and down in weight to 55kg. She draws well, and provided she handles the one-week back-up, I think she'll run very well again. Happy to have a good bet here and back both of the above runners, obviously One More Jack will be the better result.
Value: (9) She's Never Late $8.50
Race 4 - BM64 Hcp 1050m (Market)
(10) Alamdrava joined the Phillip Stokes stable ahead of this preparation and she's improved drastically. She won a trial easily at Morphettville before they took her to Gawler for an easy kill first up. She led all the way to score by 4.5L eased down, and Stokes described it as basically a second trial. She steps up to a pretty handy BM64 today but the way she's gone for the new stable, I'd expect her to measure up and be very hard to beat. The only negative in the race for her is the amount of speed on paper, especially drawn inside her. (1) Moi Choux is one of those. He's won three of his four starts, with his only defeat being first up when he was caught three-wide the trip with 61kg on a wet track. He bounced back well last start though, leading all the way at Sale. Drawn inside with an apprentice on, you'd think they'd try their best to hold the rail up front. (5) Daskulya could be worth throwing in at $51. He's first up for a new stable and has never finished out of the top three from three starts when first up.
Race 5 - Provincial Super Series Final 1800m (Market)
Very competitive race but the market as it stands has a few out of place. If the rain comes, there is no way (3) Adatto is a $7.50 chance, and more importantly, there's no way he should be that price while (2) Sasun is $12. Sasun is absolutely airborne, winning three in a row before running 2nd to Adatto last start. He came from a clear last and charged home to be beaten less than a length, the race was all over by the time he got going. He meets Adatto better off at the weights today, and Adatto faces a couple of key negatives. He goes much better on firm ground than he does wet - in fact, he's never won on wet ground - and he's never run a place from five starts on the main track at Morphettville. So the market has it wrong between those two and Sasun certainly presents as value at the $12 on offer. (1) Manzala should give this a real shake. He changed stables leading into this prep and it's turned his form around. He won first up, then failed as a well-backed favourite second up, before atoning last start at Gawler. The stable only have a very small team, but of their last 10 runners, five have been winners. He'll need a good ride from John Allen from barrier 10, but expect him to go very close at $7.00. (12) Fight For Freedom is worth including at $16, which seems a good price. He beat (14) Monteferrante last start, yet is double that horse's price here. He's a genuine wet tracker so he's going to get conditions to suit here and the price on offer looks value at the moment. Monteferrante can go well again and should be thereabouts. (13) Superveloce is another to include at $31. He comes out of that same race behind Adatto and Sasun last start, where he was beaten just under 3L. He goes much better on wet tracks so will appreciate the rain here. (7) Hasta La Fiorente is flying and obviously deserves respect. Plenty of horse mentioned there but I'm keen on both Sasun and Manzala, while I'd be looking to play trifectas and first fours with all those mentioned, except Adatto!
Trifecta 1, 2, 7, 12, 13, 14.
Race 6 - Adelaide Guineas 1600m (Market)
This looks a terrific race for (6) Kooweerup, who has been super in two starts this campaign. First up she drew wide and carried 61kg and came from the back of the field to hit the line strongly, beaten less than 2L. She ran the fastest final 400m of the meeting in that race, and Wild Vixen came out of that same race and won in Listed grade here in Adelaide at her next start. Kooweerup then ran the fastest final 400m in defeat once again last start, where she again had to come from a long way back after drawing wide. She brings the right form here, she's third up and up to the mile, has won her only start on wet ground, has won her only start here at Morphettville, and she finally draws a good gate. She's a clear top pick and one of the better bets on the card. (7) Excelida looks a bit of value at $10. She won well two starts ago at Sandown on wet ground, before working home well enough here in Adelaide over 1400m last start. The soft track is the key for her provided the rain comes, but she's just got the awkward draw to deal with.
Race 7 - 2MW-LY 1200m (Market)
Wide open race but there's a couple of the runners at the top of the market which I'm keen to take on due to the wet track. (1) Terbium comes out of a really strong form race in Melbourne but the stable have said they've brought him to Adelaide in search of better ground, but he won't find that here with the forecast we've got. (10) Tequila Time has had six goes on wet ground and hasn't won yet. Both of those horses are $5.50 chances here and I'll take them on, which gives us a good crack at some value. (9) Debt Collector ran well first up, finishing 5th, beaten 2.3L. He drew barrier 1 and just found himself too far back. He won second up last prep, he gets the blinkers back on, drops significantly in weight and he's got a good record on soft ground, so he should be hard to beat. (5) Viera looks value at $18. He actually worked home quite well first up, beaten just 2.1L. He's never placed from five starts when first up, but he improves sharply second up, with two wins and a 3rd from four starts. He's another one with a good record on soft ground. Six of his seven career wins have come at this distance so the rise in trip will suit, and he'll just need a good ride from Caitlin Jones from the wide gate. He's way over the odds at $18. (14) Miss Jane isn't hopeless at $34. She was solid first up before a poor showing last start, but forgive her for that, she never goes any good second up. She fires third up though, with two wins and a 3rd from three starts. Has a good record on soft tracks and carries just 52kg here. Third up last prep she ran 3rd in Listed company. Have something on at $34. (4) Easy Beast has a great record at the track and has claims. Backing three runners here - Debt Collector ($6.50), Viera ($18) and Miss Jane ($34).
Value: (5) Viera $18 & (14) Miss Jane $34
Race 8 - G1 TAB South Australian Derby 2500m (Market)
It goes against absolutely everything I live by when I do form, but I'm going to side with (4) Russian Camelot, and Danny O'Brien is one of the few trainers I'd trust to have him fit enough for a 2500m race off just two runs at 1400m and 1600m. I understand he comes off a BM64 win at Pakenham on a Thursday night, but he's obviously panels above that level, as he demonstrated. He should have won first up had he not blown the start completely too. The other risk with him is the fact he missed his last run with an irregular blood picture. Again, a huge red flag, but another I'm going to ignore on this one occasion. I just think this horse has the world at his feet and is a class above the other animals, so even with so much against him, I'm going to take the punt that he's too good. We're getting $4.40 to find out. (1) Dalasan hasn't done much wrong in recent starts but he looks well and truly short enough to me at $2.90. He won well last start, but I wouldn't say it was dominant, and this is a much harder race than that. We know he goes in the wet, and he's undefeated from four starts at the track, so he's obviously a very good chance, but I can't get him that short. (2) Warning was the flashing light run in the Chairman's behind Dalasan, and we know he'll be suited by the step up to 2500m, which we can't say for sure about Dalasan. Two fillies back up from last week's Oaks and take their place in the Derby today, those being (12) Moonlight Maid and (14) Zayydani, and both look to be chances at a bit of value. Moonlight Maid was very brave in the Oaks after making a mid-race move to take the lead. She stuck on really well to be beaten less than a length, and we know she runs the trip given she ran 2nd in the Victorian Oaks back in the Spring. Zayydani was never a hope from how far back she was off the slow tempo, but she worked home nicely to be beaten just 2.4L. She brings a similar profile to what her stablemate Qafila did when she backed up to win this race last year.
(4) Russian Camelot
$4.40
Race 9 - SA Sprint Series Final 1100m (Market)
Another competitive race to close out the card. (11) Appalachian has had two starts back from a spell and has been desperately unlucky in both of them. First up he was backed into favourite and was held up the entire straight at Murray Bridge, and last start it was a very similar story. Third up today, Zac Spain takes over from the two apprentices that have ridden him in his previous starts, so he gets a positive jockey change, and he just needs a bit of luck from the wide gate. $7.00 looks a decent bet to see if he can atone. (4) Seemingly Discreet is aiming for five straight wins. She's flying and the only little query with her is how she's going to handle the wet ground. The only other time she saw wet ground was her final start before going for a 40-week spell, so it's hard to gauge how she goes on it. (1) Mum's My Hero is another horse in the race in tremendous form, with four wins and two 2nds from six starts this preparation. He's won four from five at the track and distance and he's won on both soft and heavy ground, so there's no reason he can't go very close once more today. (6) Lakhani Rose has returned in good order and should run well. Something on Appalachian at $7.00 and Mum's My Hero at $9.00.
Value: (1) Mum's My Hero $9.00
