Welcome to our horse racing preview for Moonee Valley on Saturday, 9th September. We have an outstanding nine-race card to look forward to, featuring the Group 2 McEwen Stakes and Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. The track is rated a Good 4 but it's worth noting there is rain predicted on both Friday and Saturday in Melbourne, so we may see that downgraded into the soft range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Sanadaat - Race 6
Best Value: Articus EW - Race 8
Race 1
Three mares that I really like line up against each other here, with each bringing terrific form lines to the race. SAMOVARE is a horse I really want to be following going into the Spring as she continues to step up in distance. She will really appreciate stepping out the mile here for the first time since winning in Group 2 company back in WA. The horse she beat in that race was Ellicazoom, who then came to Melbourne and performed very well in Group 2 company too. Samovare was luckless first up, caught wide the entire race before finishing off nicely to run 2nd to Swampland. Swampland then came out and probably should have won again when 2nd to Oregon's Day, who is another horse to be followed in the Spring. So that form line is strong. Oliver sticks with her, but I have a couple of small concerns. Firstly, she draws awkward once again, so she risks being caught wide again. And if the rain comes, it may not suit her. The only time she hasn't placed in her career was on a soft track. I really do love her, but $2.60 is short enough here. SPANISH REEF is another horse I love and she's been very good to us. Three starts ago she beat Lovani (very strong form) over a mile, and backed that up with a win over Ruby Sea at Flemington. She then stepped up to 2000m and ran 2nd to Eureka Street, beaten 0.4L. Eureka Street then came out and won by over 4L at her next start, so the form has stacked up. Spanish Reef is undefeated at the mile, won her only start on soft ground and draws perfectly in barrier 4 to get a lovely run up on speed, which should be a big advantage. Newitt is back on board and she's hard to beat here at $4.80. 35 days between runs teh query. SEA THE SPARKLE is the final chance. She won very well first up on a soft track, before failing second up when pulling up with slow recovery and mucus. She bounced back last start when running 2nd to Hell Or Highwater, beaten 0.4L over 1600m at Caulfield on soft ground. She loomed up like she was going to win easily, but possibly was just a run short after having 28 days off leading into the race. Hell Or Highwater then came out and won her next start in Listed grade. Sea The Sparkle draws well, has that run under her belt now and gets conditions to suit here. Williams sticks with her, and I'm pretty happy with the $5.50 we're getting, with $1.91 available for the place. Backing Sea The Sparkle each way, saver on Spanish Reef.
TIP: Sea The Sparkle EW
Race 2
Open race following the scratching firstly of Mutamayel, and then of Illumicon who I was keen on. Amerock is also scratched, who I thought could run a race at huge odds. That leaves us with seven runners! I'm in the corner of ESHTIRAAK who won four races as a two-year-old and resumed in Sydney, finishing 4th behind Dracarys which is a very hot formline. Should be able to sit closer from barrier 2 and he won second up last in his first prep. If he rates a chance here, then so too must ABERRO and SUNQUEST. Aberro finished 0.2L behind Eshtiraak in the Mornington Sires last prep, and gets in 4kg better here. He resumed with a solid win over Wassergeist, who came out and won on Wednesday. Sunquest finished 0.5L behind Eshtiraak last prep and also gets in 4kg better off here. He absolutely charged home in Stakes grade last start at this track, and the step up in trip looks to be what he needs. MASCULINO was good when winning first up and certainly isn't out of it now. The other three- ASPECT, SHEER MADNESS and KEDLESTON - all have claims in their own right.
TIP: Eshtiraak
Race 3
Looks an open race and expecting a fierce tempo set here with MAJESTIC DUKE, OSCAR'S MY MATE PA, EMOJI, COSMIC LIGHTS, LORD TENNYSON and DON'T GET EXCITED (if he gets a run) all going forward. Much will depend on the second emergency BRAHMOS gaining a start. If he does, I think he's the one to beat. He won impressively in BM64 midweek city grade on debut, before rising to BM70 grade and running 2nd, beaten 0.4L. He drops to the minimum weight here with 54.5kg, and I don't think barrier 9 is the worst draw here. I think he'll be able to sit in midfield behind a hot tempo, somewhere in the 2-3 wide running line. Hopefully that allows him to stay clear of any traffic, and he should be charging home over the top of them late. Craig Williams chooses to stick with him, and given he's not guaranteed a start, that's a good sign. Hopefully we get two scratchings and he lines up. Look for EBEDIYIN to improve sharply for the Weir/Lane combo. He was really well backed on his Australian debut but pulled up with slow recovery and mucus. 1500m is short of his best, but the weight of money he received first up tells me he can feature here at a better price. We're getting $8.50 today and happy to back him. RADICAL is ready to win after a luckless run last start. He draws poorly here but should be motoring home. RIYADH has a huge weight but had excuses last start and previous to that was flying. I expect them to stay to the inside and hope the gaps open up for him to poke through. MAJESTIC DUKE one to include at big odds.
TIP: Brahmos / Ebediyin EW
Race 4
Another very tough race. The Team Williams runners could be key here. FOUNDRY ran an enormous race first up over the mile at Caulfield, only run down late by the in-form Rhythm To Spare. He led from barrier 11 that day, and he will likely go forward once again from the same barrier today. With the step up in trip and the run under his belt (that was his first run in 335 days) he can go close here. HANS HOLBEIN resumed with a solid enough effort over this track and distance, finishing 5th behind another in-form horse, Pacodali. The key with this horse is how much he improves from his first up run to his second up run. He's only placed once from six starts when first up, but has won twice from three starts when second up. Last prep he was beaten 4.5L first up over a mile, before bolting in by 3.5L second up over 2400m. This prep is slightly different in that he resumed over 2040m instead of 1600m, and stays at 2040m instead of rising in trip. I think we'll see him ridden a touch quieter today, but he should be going close despite probably still being short of his best trip. MOONOVERMANHATTAN took a few runs to get fit, but showed last start that he's nearing a win. He finished right alongside Foundry in that race, and actually headed him before possibly peaking on his run slightly. He will go forward from the wide gate, drops from 54kg to 52.5kg, and has won his only start over this track and distance. Keen to have a bet on him at each way odds. His stablemate KILLARNEY KID gets D Lane on board and is at absolute peak fitness. Comes off a strong trial hurdle and will go well. HARLOW GOLD was very good first up and gets out to a more reasonable distance. Draws well and no surprises to see her win. It's very interesting/strange to see Craig Williams booked to ride $71 chance RULING DYNASTY for Darren Weir. I'll be including him in numbers, while ELECTRIC FUSION is going well.
TIP: Hans Holbein / Moonovermanhattan EW
Race 5
What a cracking race this is. Low on numbers but it's a seriously hot field! Very keen to take on HOUTZEN here at around $2.50-$2.70 which I think is extremely short in a field this good. She carries absolutely no weight, but she is a new season three-year-old filly, returning to the track for the first time since her two-year-old year, taking on older and proven Group 1 winning horses. Happy to be on RUSSIAN REVOLUTION who won the Group 1 The Galaxy first up last prep, beating subsequent Group 1 winner Redzel. He's undefeated first up, has won in all conditions, and although this is his first go at 1000m, he's won three races over 1100m so I'm not concerned. Happy to take $3.60. Also keen to back HELLBENT who has won three races from five starts when first up. His only start at this track saw him run 0.1L behind Silent Sedition in Group 1 company, and he's also got a great record at this distance. Barrier 1 is a very tricky barrier for him and we could see him settle last on the rails, so hopefully D Dunn produces a bit of magic. But at $9 I'm more than happy to have something on. SUPIDO won well enough first up but he beat absolutely nothing in the race and faces much stiffer competition here. It's a positive for him that he's been kept fresh into this as his record suggests that's how he races best. Has a good record at the distance and won his only start at the track. I'll be taking him on but no surprises to see him win. HEATHERLY and MISSROCK finished alongside each other first up over this track and distance, with Missrock just getting the better (a good result for us). Missrock has a much better first up record than second up, while Heatherly has never missed a place from seven starts at the track and distance and gets a small weight turnaround. Think Heatherly is the better suited here but will likely be taking both on.
TIP: Russian Revolution / Hellbent EW
Race 6
Speaking of hot fields, this is right up there. Pretty keen on two in this race. The first is SANADAAT who somehow opened $13 but not finds her right price at the $4.40. I still think that's a good price in a race where she is very well suited. She should be undefeated and resumed with an ultra impressive win at Sandown. She sat outside the leader and skipped away in the straight to win eased down by 2.75L carrying 59.5kg. She drops to 55kg here, draws very well in barrier 5, and rates as a top chance. She's paying $1.85 for the place and that makes her a fantastic each way bet. I was keen also to back Roomooz but she's since been scratched. SHOALS is favourite for the race and deservedly so, but her trainer admitted she is vulnerable first up here and she does give a little bit of weight to race-fit horses. She should get a nice enough run from the barrier and she'll get every chance to win, but I'm going to take her on at the price. LIMESTONE is one I'm not too sure what to do with. She drifted badly first up and ran accordingly, though she wasn't terrible. She's once again been an early drifter here ($4 out to $6), and she'll have to go back again from the wide barrier. We may see her take plenty of improvement out of that first up run and really bounce back here, but from where she maps, I'm taking her on again. I was very keen on Sanadaat even before my second pick Roomooz was scratched, so even keener now. Has come down to $4.40/$1.85 after Roomooz's scratching but that's still a good price.
TIP: Sanadaat (Best Bet)
Race 7
Looks a one horse affair on paper and all things equal BRAVE SMASH should take care of this lot. He probably should have tested Vega Magic on his Australian debut, and they cleared out by over 4L from the third horse. Vega Magic then came out and won the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, so on paper Brave Smash should be able to measure up at that level, meaning this Listed race is well within his grasp. Weir's horses have funny ways of coming in and out of form but looks a safe anchor for any multis. OAK DOOR returned with a good win first up and can run well again. KEEN ARRAY showed promise last start and has a good record over track and distance. RELDAS, EL DIVINO and REVOLVING DOOR others to include.
TIP: Brave Smash
Race 8
HE'S OUR ROKKI will be hard to beat in this as a Group 1 winner over the distance, with most of the field looking for further as they target the longer distance races in the Spring. He resumed with a solid effort when 4th behind Hartnell in the PB Lawrence Stakes and his second up record suggests he should be right in the finish today. They may try to sit handy from barrier 1 today. Think he goes very close but just leaning to a couple of others that tempt me at the prices. The first is STAR EXHIBIT who I was very keen on first up but thought he was disappointing on face value. Having said that, it was a very on-speed dominated race and he can be forgiven for not making much ground. He's never missed a place second up and unlike some of the other stayers, he has the ability to go well over the mile. Zahra takes over from John Allen today, which is an interesting booking for a Weir horse, but I'm expecting an improved showing here and I'll stick with him at the $6 mark. Weir's other horse ARTICUS looks over the odds at $12. His first up run was okay without being spectacular, but he carried 60kg that day and he is undefeated second up, so he looks well suited today with the run under his belt. Craig Williams takes over from Ben Allen for the ride and I think we'll see him in the finish today. The two Kiwi horses for Murray Baker are definitely worth keeping a close eye on. I think this will be a touch short for BONNEVAL, but follow her during the Spring. LIZZIE L'AMOUR looks the stable's best chance. She's got a great first up record with two wins and a placing from three starts, and she won fresh over 1400m last prep. Draws well for Damien Oliver and while I don't expect her to win, I think she'll run a big race. She's $51 in the Caulfield Cup - I'd recommend having a penny on because Baker thinks she's right up there as the stable's best chance. GALLANTE the blowout at $51.
TIP: Star Exhibit / Articus EW (Best Value)
Race 9
Wide open affair. I think STAMPEDE will go very close here, but the only thing that puts me off him is the speed map. The only way MIHANY can win is if he tries to lead at his own leisure, and ONPICALO draws barrier 1, so there's going to be competition for the lead. Add in BOOM TIME coming across from the wide barrier and there may be a bit of tempo up front that will set it up for some others coming from off the pace. I'll be with two Weir runners again here. BIG DUKE is the first of those. I thought his first up run was super, and with that run under his belt he could give this a shake. I'd have liked to have seen him up in trip, but I think he will drift on the day out to a decent price that's better than the $6.50 we're getting. RAW IMPULSE might be the stable's better chance. He was okay first up, and his second up record is fantastic, with three wins from four races. Second up last prep he bolted in by 5L in Adelaide, so although he maps poorly here, I think with the way the race could be run he can swoop late for Lane. $7.50 is reasonable. HERE TO THERE once again maps to get the run of the race. Everything went right for him last start and everything will probably go right for him again here so include him at double figures. ETYMOLOGY was terrific first up from well over a year off the track. Williams takes the ride and he can feature in the finish.
TIP: Big Duke / Raw Impulse EW
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