Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, September 5th.
Melbourne racing returns to The Valley this Saturday with a nine-race card headlined by dual Group 2s, the McEwen Stakes and the Feehan Stakes! The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail returning to the true position, which we feel will favour those horses on speed.
Trent Crebbin has assess every race on the card and given his tips and best bets for the day below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, September 5th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (3) Age Of Chivalry
Best Value: Race 6 - (4) Fine Dane
The more I look at this race the more I think (3) How Womantic just wins. She’s won 4 from 5 in her career, the only failure coming at the end of last prep when 3 wide the trip in a strong group 2, fading late over 1400m to finish 8th. She did start $7 that day and the race was won by Rubisaki, with some other good fillies around the mark. Her 4 wins prior were very good, with an undeniable will to win by putting herself on speed and giving a strong kick every time. At 1200m she’s clearly the best horse in the race, but as always there are a couple of queries. The map is the first one, because I’m honestly not sure who will lead. The other two on pace horses are drawn wide so I would assume they come across, but if How Womantic is quickly away she could hold them out on the rail. I hope that’s the case because I’d prefer not to have a scenario where (4) Jentico and (9) Lady Loft cross her, and Neindorf is leader’s back in the coffin. She might be too good anyway, and I do think rails in run will be an advantage early, but that map position has claimed many a good horse at The Valley. If she holds them out for the lead it should be close to game over, and if she gets crossed, I still think she’s a good chance of getting off the fence early enough, so at the $2.80 she does seem a fair price.
Tricky race. There’s certainly solid pace on paper with a few that like to roll out in front. There are two I want to spec here, one that should be on pace and one off. The on pacer is (3) Thought Of That. I think he’s simply a dry track horse, so I’m prepared to forgive his last start failure when a $4.80 chance in a harder 3yo handicap at Flemington. He comes here off an 8 week let up, which can sometimes be a concern, but we’ve seen with the Maher & Eustace stable that their horses can have longer breaks between runs and still perform, notably Persan last week over 2400m. There’s no denying the horse’s ability- his two wins leading up to the Vic Derby were outstanding, absolutely demolishing subsequent Derby and Oaks’ winners Warning and Miami Bound. Zahra jumps aboard here, he’ll strike a bone dry track for the first time in a while, he should be able to come across and potentially even lead if they really show some intent, and the high pressure race should suit. The other horse I can have something on is (9) O’tauto who comes here 2nd up. His run 1st up at Caulfield was inconclusive, stuck on the inside and getting held up when trying to build momentum. He didn’t exactly savage the line once clear, but the race was over by then anyway. On his best form he’s clearly up to these, and 2nd up last prep he started $3.80 against Harbour Views and Star Missile and you could argue he should’ve won, or at least been right in the finish. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 5, likely sitting one off the fence midfield or just worse, but if the gaps come or there’s a back to follow, he can finish very strongly at a big price. (14) Shandy is flying but this is a step up and she looks more than short enough at the current quote. (2) Skyman is a good horse, but he drops back to 1600m, draws the carpark and will be giving some of these 10 lengths head start. He should be double figures based on the map alone.
I saved this race until last to preview because it’s probably the toughest race of the day. I’m going to spec a couple at odds that map well here because the winner likely comes down to the best run in transit. (5) Milton Park is coming off two synthetic wins, but he’s led throughout in both and the most recent, whilst only a class 1, was a decent field and he did it comfortably after being very quick early. (14) Jay Gatsby could find the rail from barrier 4 and was only overrun very late at Sandown on a soft 7. He travelled very nicely into that race but just gave out late, and I do think a firm track is going to help his case. Gets the 2kg off for Stockdale, he’s hard fit, should lead and did start $5.50 last start against (7) Surooj who draws wide here. The winner of that race was (3) Cumberbatch who is an obvious hope. He draws barrier 1 here so will be rails in run but will need luck to get out in the big field. A huge tick for him is Jamie Kah, who rides The Valley better than nearly anyone because she’s so balanced around the sharp turns. Cumberbatch started 3x the price of Jay Gatsby in that race and is the same price here so although he’s not hopeless whatsoever I do prefer Jay Gatsby at the price. I’m basically ignoring the ‘better’ exposed horses such as (1) Lunar Fox who jumps from 1100m to 1500m here and carries 62kg. (2) Flinders River comes out of that awful 1800m race but was solid two back beating (4) Galactic Fury, and although they’ve been racing in strong company, I think the less exposed horses might actually have their measure going forward and do set up better today. Backing Jay Gatsby who will be my best result, and Milton Park.
Value: (5) Milton Park $19
I’ve narrowed this down to three horses that at the odds, I can make a case for. I’ll start with the favourite (6) Junipal who comes here 2nd up off an excellent first up run behind Showmanship, settling last in run and coming home very strongly in the 2nd fastest sectionals of the race to run 3rd, beaten 1.4L giving that horse 1.5kg. Whilst he’s never won 2nd up, he has run a very good 5th to Kolding, and should’ve won at this T/D 2nd up off a let up this time last year. Maher/Eustace runners tend to improve 2nd up, and if he has any improvement off the first up run, he’ll be very hard to beat. The only, and obvious knock is barrier 1. The horse doesn’t have much tactical speed so he’s going to be buried on the fence and need a good ride to get out, which probably isn’t John Allen’s best asset as a rider. If the luck comes, he just wins, so I simply have to make him a result. Allowing me to do that at the odds is (9) Prince Ziggy who looks overs. He comes here 4th up, and if you look back through his record, he bolted in 4th up last prep in the Traralgon Cup. His form this prep has been indifferent, just holding his ground 1st up, leading 2nd up and fading, before elevating significantly 3rd up at this T/D, running on strongly behind Al Galayel (who knocked off Orderofthegarter last week) for 2nd. Olly sticks here and he should be ready to fire. He does draw the carpark so tactics will be interesting. If they snick and settle last he’s probably got no hope, but the horse has the speed to roll forward and with a long run to the first turn it’d be incompetent not to try and find a spot forward of midfield, with the option to drop back for cover if he can’t find a spot early. The other horse that interests me is (3) Odeon but I’m very wary of horses coming off that bog track after we saw Kentucky Tornado absolutely cooked at Bendigo on Wednesday. He doesn’t win often but if he’s recovered certainly has the ability. If Junipal gets any luck he probably wins, so I’m happy to back both him and Prince Ziggy who is ready to win.
Value: (9) Prince Ziggy $15
Close to the race of the day in my opinion between (3) Age Of Chivalry who comes here 2nd up off a 0.1L defeat to Viridine 1st up, and (6) Showmanship who I declared a moral at Caulfield and won duly saluted. This time, I’m pretty happy to be with Age Of Chivalry at the prices and the set up for each runner. Age Of Chivalry has an excellent 2nd up record with 2 wins and a 3rd from 4 starts, including a very easy all the way win this time last year over Rox The Castle and Shot Of Irish. That first up run behind Viridine was excellent, travelling well on the inside and fighting on very strongly to just go down to the fit and airborne Viridine. Well beaten in 4th was Begood Toya Mother, who in my opinion ran enormous in the group 1 Memsie last week. Whilst Showmanship came home in stronger sectionals on the same day, that’s to be expected given he was near last in that race, and the slower early tempo allowed him to reel off some solid late splits. Age Of Chivalry went much faster early but was still very strong through the line. The real issue here is the map. We saw with Showmanship at Caulfield that from the wide barrier Pike was very negative on the horse, probably realising that he had the field covered regardless. Showmanship does have tactical speed, but there are a few here that certainly have him beat for early speed, so where he settles will be interesting. If Pike is negative out the gates and he settles just off midfield, he might struggle to get to Age Of Chivalry, especially over 1200m where he’s potentially a touch vulnerable. It’s not generally Lane’s style, but his best chance of winning would be to be aggressive out of the gates and try to hold the front/fence, hopefully squeezing Showmanship a pair further back than he’d like to be. I’ve taken $3.80 Age Of Chivalry and would expect him to start around the $3 mark, perhaps just under. Showmanship should jump favourite but if he’s going to get beat it’ll be here, despite the 4kg weight swing. I seriously doubt anything else can win at 1200m here, so get set for a cracking battle of tactics and ability, with a slight lean to Age Of Chivalry at the price.
(3) Age Of Chivalry
$3.00
Tricky edition of the Mcewen stakes. There’s heaps of speed as you’d expect over 1000m, but the backmarkers may be a long way off them coming round the turn if they can’t keep up early. I think you can play two here at odds that should get every chance in run. The first is one I thought I’d never back again in (9) Rulership. I was disappointed with his first up run in the Vain but looking back on it you can make excuses. I think the horse might be a pure dry tracker so his run first up when a heavily supported favourite on a soft 6 can be forgiven. I was ready to bin the horse, thinking he might’ve just been a strong 2yo, but his run last week was very good. He settled leader’s back on the fence, and through no fault of Damien Lane, he was blocked for a run when trying to ease off heels. In hindsight he could’ve shot through the inside, which opened up just as he was making his move. Rulership only really got clear air for 150m and was only hitting top gear at the 100m but still ran the 4th fastest last 200m of the race. He’s much better suited at the weights as a new 3yo here, only having to carry 52kg, a drop of 4kg from last week. With the feather weight he’ll likely cross to the fence early and hold out (6) Witherspoon, or Lane will let that horse cross him and he’ll have rails in run just behind the speed. Going back to his 2yo days, Rulership did start $2.90 vs (10) Hanseatic $2.30 and was only beaten 0.3L, so for Rulership to be 3x the price and with a far better map looks overs. The one at monstrous odds I can make a case for is (4) Fine Dane who at $41 fixed is the outside of the field. This horse is 3 from 4 when first up, the only miss coming at the Caulfield 1000m when finishing 6th behind Jungle Edge and I Am Immortal, only beaten 2.15L and racing through the inferior ground. All 4 of Fine Dane’s wins have come at the 1000m, 3 of them have been on good tracks and 2 of them have been here at The Valley. I don’t think he has the early speed to hold out Rulership and Witherspoon from barrier 1, so I imagine he’ll be on the back of Rulership in the run. If the rail is hot, he’ll be advantaged, and whilst he will need luck in the straight, if something rolls off the fence or a gap appears around the turn, he’s going to have every chance to sprint quickly. We only have to go back to the 955m series final where he started $5.50 to (5) Bella Vella’s $4.80 and whilst he was soundly beaten, the price discrepancy here, especially with the first up and rails in run factors, is too big. Bella Vella is obviously a good chance herself and went unbeaten last prep, culminating in a group 1 Sangster win in Adelaide. (7) Brooklyn Hustle bolted in this T/D first up and whilst it’s been a while between runs, she’s a great chance too. Again she will need a lot of luck from barrier 2 back in the field in a much stronger race than last time. Pretty happy to back Rulership and Fine Dane here, who could end up starting north of $50 on the exchange.
Very open race for the fillies, but I am keen on (9) Night Raid for the Mick Price yard. She’s had two career starts, the first a good run down the straight in January when racing greenly and the 2nd at Tatura of all places where she started at a prohibitive $1.20, which in hindsight was overs because she went straight to the front, Terry Bailey went the early crow at about the 800m mark, and once she was shaken up she put 7L on the field with ease. If she’s away as well as she was last start, Zahra should have no trouble finding the lead from barrier 5 and if it’s a highway she’s going to be mighty hard to run down. The early support has come for her and I think she’ll start favourite. (8) Agreeable is a good filly and on a Thousand Guineas path. Her run in the Quezette was good, getting a long way back and coming home strongly, but I can only envision a similar scenario here from the same barrier. The unbeaten (4) Aidensfield is the danger and whilst she beat the ‘staying’ B graders on debut and virtually nothing last start, she puts herself near the speed and seems quite honest. Ideally, she’d sit outside Night Raid in the run from barrier 8 but if a few inside her kick up, such as (2) River Night she might struggle. (3) Dirty Thoughts keeps winning but in hindsight had every favour last start and back to a good surface looks short enough. I think Night Raid starts favourite from Aidensfield, but if Night Raid finds the lead good luck catching her.
How on earth is (4) Surprise Baby favourite here? I know he’s a very good horse and arguably should’ve won last year’s Melbourne Cup, but that was at 3200m. This is at 1600m off nearly a year off. He ran in this race last year first up after a 15 week spell and ran 4th, but they had far more reason to win there seeing as he wasn’t assured of a Melbourne Cup start. He was fit and forward enough to jump up to the 2520m at his next start to gain a ticket. First up here, he’s assured of a start and won’t want any weight penalties along the way. He also draws barrier 7 so will probably be last in run and needing to make a sweeping run down the outside, which could be near impossible if the track plays as expected. I just can’t get him anywhere near as short as he is now. One that has every reason to show intent is (8) Harbour Views. I’ve never been a big fan of the horse, but if he brings his best form here, he’s going to take a stack of beating. He’s only started above $4 once in his career and that was first up last prep, where he ran 3rd but still easily beat (6) Sirrconi home, who started $19. Even when Sirrconi did beat Harbour Views home at his most recent run, Harbour Views started $2 to Sirrconi’s $17. I’m a big believer in SP’s and off that reason alone there is no way Harbour Views should be $4.20 and Sirrconi $4.80. Harbour Views will be rails in run and if the field is strung out a touch, which could very well be the case, Allen will have ample time to get off the fence and prove too strong. I actually thought one that was suited here was (9) Coming Around. His run was close to the best of the day at The Valley in race 1 on the abandoned meeting, making ground off the speed. He can be just off the pace and whilst he’s in awfully at the weights for his rating, he should get a nice run and a drier track suits. If he drifts out a bit more, which is very possible, I could have a saver on him, hopefully at closer to $15. (3) Streets Of Avalon hasn’t been suited in his 2 runs this prep but I’ve got a query on him at 1600m, so he looks short enough. The more I look through this field, the more knocks I can find on nearly every runner, except Harbour Views, so at the price he’s definitely worthy of a solid wager and saving Coming Around late if he doesn’t firm.
Found this race very tough. There’s no designated leader engaged, and whilst a few can go forward, none really have the fitness base or set up that scream intent. If (3) Dabiyr does go forward from a middle barrier he’s going to be hard to beat. I thought he was a big chance before The Valley track disintegrated two weeks ago in a tougher race, but now he comes here 7 weeks between runs which is a concern for a stayer stepping up in trip. In his favour he’s unbeaten when 2nd up from a spell despite the long break, and he has raced on pace and even led before, but that was at 3200m. If they do go forward and take the lead, which is not guaranteed for a Waller horse, he’ll probably win. He’s one I could look to take a slightly lower price about in play after 50-100m. (12) Skelm was well backed 1st up and could find the fence from barrier 3, but he’s not the quickest beginner and generally settles near the back of the field. I would’ve been keen on the odds of (10) Naivasha but she probably settles midfield or worse and surely can’t find the fence from barrier 8. By this time of the day, we’ll know how the races are being run. If they have started to make ground off the fence by now, I’ll definitely be backing her, so watch closely. (7) Naval Warfare could lead but has only placed once from 5 attempts when 2nd up. If (4) Creedence doesn’t get too far back from barrier 1 he’ll be a chance, but he might be buried with some unfit horses falling back on his lap. Very tough way to finish. If they’re still leading on the rail, I’ve got Dabiyr on top, if they are coming off the fence I’d be happier to back Naivasha.
