Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, June 13th.
Victorian racing returns to The Valley for the first time in months, with a nine-race Saturday meeting to welcome us back! The track is rated a soft 6 but could improve slightly, while the rail is out 4m for the circuit.
Find Trent Crebbin's preview and betting tips below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, June 13th
Best Bet: Race 8 - (2) Django Freeman * Use Palmerbet Price Push *
Value Bet: Race 1- (10) Island Joy * Use Palmerbet Race Rescue *
We were on (10) Island Joy last start at Caulfield, where I expected the track to favour leaders. Unfortunately, the 40km headwinds had other ideas, and she struggled in the worst part of the track. I’m happy to forgive that effort, and the Moonee Valley circuit should be to her liking. It’s worth noting she started $4.20 against a couple of these and has come up double figures here. One of those was (1) Jabali Ridge who was slow out and came home in the fastest sectionals of the race. He’s clearly come back well, but I’m not sure the track will suit him as much as Flemington or Caulfield last week. There’s a few coming off impressive maiden wins, and my pick of them would be (3) Crosshaven who ran the fastest sectionals of the day on debut which is never easy. (6) Sense of Honour also fits that bill but will need a bit of luck early. Happy to stick with Island Joy in the opener and play both ways if so inclined at $3 the place. Make sure you use the Palmerbet Race Rescue product to ensure your stake is returned if our Best value finishes 2nd or 3rd!
Good race with some progressive horses. (3) Librate and (5) Smoke Bomb come out of the same race at Caulfield. Smoke Bomb was expected to lead (which would’ve been tough on the day) but missed the start and settled last. I thought his effort to finish as close as he did was good, running the fastest last 1400, 1200 and 1000m of the race just to keep up. Gets barrier 2 and Jamie Kah, both of which are positives and if he finds the front, he could be too strong. Librate was enormous at Caulfield racing without cover and narrowly going down to a handy horse. Does draw wide here but if Olly finds a spot just off the leaders, she can go one better. (2) La Chevalee is the other in the market. Not sure back to a drier track is in her favour, and she has had the perfect run at her last two wins. Does map well again but looks short enough to me.
Going again with (2) Sikorsky. Backed into the red at Caulfield, he just got trapped wide no cover into that headwind, working the entire race to eventually sit outside the leader before getting nailed right on the line by our other pick in the race. It’s a long run to the first turn at the Valley 1600m start and Oliver should be able to slot in. If that happens, Sikorsky should be winning. (1) Holbein is racing well, almost getting past our $65 winner last week at Flemington. The 1600m shouldn’t be an issue but he does need another win. I think the main dangers are (5) Strategic Phil who is racing well. He just knocked off Sonaree last start, and that horse has won well for us at Mornington since. (4) Kaplumpich is the other knocking on the door. Not sure where he gets to on the map though.
Looks a race on two on paper. We were on (1) Great Again last start at double figures and I thought the win was terrific. He was there to be beaten numerous times against some handy sprinters and just kept fighting to score. His 2nd up form in WA is nearly perfect in some handy races. The obvious negative is Chris Caserta going on. I know he broke the drought last week, but it’s still not ideal. Drawing just inside him is (2) Tavisan who was the only leader to win at Caulfield two weeks ago. I think he probably leads again which will be beneficial. (3) Ashlor gets some weight relief, (4) All Over Bosanova has a great 3rd up record and (8) Spirit of Aquada was excellent late last start but draws barrier 1. With the jockey change, Tavisan’s last start win and his record at the track/trip, I think Great Again will get out in the market a bit, and I’m happy to have him on top if that’s the case.
They’ll go like last week’s jobseeker in this one, and I’m not entirely sure who will lead. Olly is drawn wide on (3) Iconic Star and will come across and could force the issue to find the rail. (2) Ms Catherine is a very quick beginner and if Cartwright wants to she can hold them out. This filly is 3 from 3. Her win over this track and distance in February was exceptional winning by 4.5L. She then stepped up to 1200m and again led all the way beating a handy 3yo field. She’s only had a 16 week break with a potential Adelaide trip called off, and if she’s close to peak fitness she could just be too fast. The other main chance who maps well is (1) Sansom. The interesting form line comes through Hint of Mint, who Sansom narrowly defeated after a torrid run before a spell. Ms Catherine beat that horse by over 6 lengths when they met, and although the SP’s are in favour of Sansom the margin is significant. (9) Beauty Supreme gets blinkers first time and maps to sit just behind the speedsters, but I’m not sure he’s quite good enough. I don’t think Ms Catherine will get much shorter, so I’ll be shopping late despite being keen on her and having something small on Iconic Star, split 85/15.
Value: (3) Iconic Star $8.50
Happy to give (6) It’s Kind Of Magic another chance. Backed into $3 in a similar race at Caulfield, he just never looked comfortable on the heavy track and dropped out to finish a distant last. He did break his maiden 2nd up last preparation in dominant fashion, and back onto a drier track from barrier 4, Prebble should find a lovely spot one out one back and be hard to beat. The danger coming from Adelaide looks to be (3) Dixon Street. Interestingly Olly jumps off It’s Kind Of Magic to ride for T & C McEvoy, but Prebble was the favourite’s original rider so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Dixon Street is flying in SA winning his last three and should also find a nice spot just off the speed. If (10) Kalkarni Royale finds the front and settles she can run a good race.
(6) It's Kind Of Magic
$4.80
Found this race quite tough to dissect. (4) Shot Of Irish is flying, his run last start at Flemington was almost the best of the preparation despite not winning. He rode a hot speed and was bloused by (1) Reykjavik late whilst the others on speed were beaten out of sight. The Valley looks an ideal track for Shot Of Irish, but he gets back onto a good/soft track, which takes away one of his main strengths. Reykjavik meets the favourite worse at the weights but is flying. He was just ridden upside down in the Wangoom after being well backed before bolting in last start, but he probably sits worse than midfield from the map which could be tough at The Valley coming from Flemington. The replay was tough to watch but I thought (2) Plein Ciel was excellent first up, coming home in the 2nd fastest sectionals of the race to finish 3rd behind Iconoclasm and Achernar Star who was our best bet on the day. Interestingly Plein Ciel hasn’t drawn closer than barrier 7 for over a year. When he has drawn well, he’s been able to settle midfield rather than near last. His 2nd up record is excellent, and I think you’ll get double figures on the day. Next best is (9) Biometric who was unlucky in his Australian debut and can win.
Good race. I’m keen to take on the favourite (9) Harbour Views. How he opened at $2.50 and under I’ll never know. The horse has had a big spruik on him from day one, and clearly he has talent, but the fact is his two best wins are in BM78’s and were hardly dominant. I thought he was good first up behind Buffalo River and Achernar Star, but last start was just disappointing. He had every chance to beat $101 shot Chapel City and couldn’t yet has come up the same price in a much tougher race. I think (2) Django Freeman is clearly the horse to beat. This German import was very good first up in that Reykjavik race. He steps up to 2040m on a drier track, Willo sticks and should be leader’s back from barrier 1. It has a bit of ‘Masaff’ feel from last week, but this horse was close to favourite in the Cox Plate and Cups last year. Back onto a better track should suit (6) Hang Man who was enormous last week sitting wide into the headwind and only just going down late. Not sure we’ll get a price that will allow a two bet play but he’s the clear danger for mine. Not sure how well (5) Double You Tee has come back, but his form last preparation puts him right in the game. (12) Tavirun probably leads and will be fitter 3rd up after a good run last start. Make sure you use the Palmerbet Price Push product to get better value for our Best of the Day!
Handy littles mares BM84 to finish. I’ll start with the favourite (8) Broadwayandfourth who got a much deserved win last start at Caulfield. The race set up perfectly for her and she was the best swooper, winning comfortably. From barrier 12 she probably goes back to last and at the Valley that’s a different ball game. I’d probably go as far to say she and Harbour Views are my lays of the day. (2) La Tigeresa was desperately unlucky first up down the straight. Her 2nd up record is outstanding, and she gets Olly from barrier 4. (6) Jamaican Hurry might be the most in-form mare in Australia. She just keeps racing well and has a great will to win but draws wide again. If she gets a three wide trail, she can finish over the top for sure. The other horse I’m keen to back is (1) Kabini. She’s racing incredibly well in Adelaide. Two back she came from near last to run 3rd to Jungle Edge and Behemoth, beating seasoned sprinters Bold Star and Viridine before running 2nd to Humma Humma, where she should’ve finished even closer. Draws well and King takes 2kg off, I think she’s the value in the race.
