Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, August 4th.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Tune in to Episode 45 of the Before You Bet Podcast below as Tim previews all of today's racing at both Moonee Valley and Randwick!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 #11 Another Coldie
Best Value: Race 4 #8 Carlingford / #13 Kyzamba
RACE 1
Tricky sort of race to start off with. The speed map makes things interesting. The favourite (3) All In Brawl is drawn a touch sticky out in barrier 8, so unless he begins very sharply, he might well be caught three-wide up on the speed with a couple of speed horses drawn inside him. Godolphin seems to have sorted their stuff out in Melbourne (and Sydney) and we see (1) Sanglier resume from a three-month spell here. Barrier 1 at the Valley can be very problematic but Damian Lane is a positive jockey booking and this horse has some reasonable form to his name. Does have to carry 2.5kg more than any other horse in the field though. (7) Mig Energy is a runner I’m vary wary of at double figure odds and could be my main bet in the race. He’s on debut here and has only had two ordinary trials leading into it but he’s from a pretty astute stable that is always worth watching in these sorts of races. Barrier 4 is ideal and an each way bet isn’t the worst play. (6) Jimenez is another horse on debut but hasn’t been seen in any public trials. Always have to keep them safe under those circumstances, especially from this stable. Sanglier and Mig Energy for me.
Value: (7) Mig Energy $13 Crownbet
RACE 2
Open race. (6) Nantaali comes off a strong win at Flemington two weeks ago over 1400m. Steps up to the mile for the first time today but she was strong through the line last start which indicates the 1600m should be fine. Drawn reasonably well in barrier 6 and Damian Lan retains the ride so she goes on top. (7) Spannerhead gets two big positives today. Craig Williams goes on and she gets blinkers on for the first time. Drawn well in barrier 3 and has placed at her only run at this track. Could be value at $8. (3) Ma Jones went mighty close last start at Flemington and looks to be knocking on the door for a win. She will be coming from a long way off the pace which is her only issue. (4) Crafty Devil is Weir’s other runner in the race and could be a blowout at $51. (9) Alaskan Sun not hopeless.
Value: (7) Spannerhead $8.00 Neds
RACE 3
Seriously competitive race so without going through all the hances (there are plenty), I’ll highlight the two that interest me most. (3) La Pomme De Pin returns from a spell here and has trialled very nicely for the first up run. She went very close behind Long Leaf on debut in her first campaign before bolting in to win the Ballarat Magic Millions by 5.5L. Disappointing in the Wyong Magic Millions but hasn’t been seen since which indicates she may have pulled up with a problem out of that. Drawn nicely in barrier 3 and looks a good chance at $7. (4) Belzella ran 3rd on debut at Flemington back in November of last year and was sent straight for a spell. She returned with an easy win in a Balaklava maiden, cruising home to win by 2.5L despite sitting three-wide the trip. She was far too good and obviously a few classes above that and ran good time in the process. Drawn well in 6 and represents a very strong stable. $9.00 appeals.
Value: (4) Belzella $9.00 Crownbet
(3) La Pomme de Pin
$6.50
RACE 4
Looks a very nice race for the talented (4) You’ve Been Had who has four wins from seven starts. Failed last time out at Flemington behind Malibu Style in a straight race but drops back heavily in grade to BM78 company here and ran enormously over this track and distance two starts ago. Carries 60kg and draws barrier 11 so will have to do it the hard way again but he looks a more progressive horse than many of these. Two horses at value odds are (8) Carlingford and (13) Kyzamba. Carlingford did nothing first up but rarely does and has won three from four starts when second up. Kyzamba, on the other hand, won first up in easier grade despite doing it tough and is undefeated second up. Both have the ability to settle on the speed and enjoy good runs from their barriers so at $20 and $15 respectively, they are definitely worth throwing in.
Value: (8) Carlingford $20 Neds / (13) Kyzamba $15 Neds
(4) You've Been Had
$3.40
RACE 5
(5) Streets Of Avalon continues to run very well but I can’t be taking $3.60 here about a horse that just doesn’t win. His record is now one win from 17 starts and with a tricky draw here, I’m keen to avoid. It’s a wide-open race though. (4) Lord Tennyson could be set to bounce back here after a string of fairly consistent performances. He goes back up to 1500m here after dropping back in distance last start, draws barrier 1 and Damian Lane also gets back aboard. He’d probably be a better chance with a bit of rain around but $8.50o is a backable each way price. (6) Emoji drops back in distance and gets blinkers applied for the first time with Mark Zahra a very notable jockey booking. (10) Cavalero is worth keeping safe first up and (15) Palmateer was a last-start winner and draws well here which, for a Waller runner, means they should sit forward in the run.
RACE 6
Another race that continues the theme of the day: big field, wide-open contest. (1) Thunder Cloud could only manage 3rd as favourite at Flemington last start but that was his first start at the distance and he was jumping from 2100m to 2500m. With that run under his belt he should be better off today and he’s drawn well in barrier 4. He might be able to bounce back. His stablemate (2) Big Hammer also ran 3rd last start but was beaten 2.1L by (8) Pioneertown and only gets a 1kg weight swing today. Add to that a sticky draw in barrier 14 and he might be worth risking here. Pioneertown kept his undefeated record at this distance intact with that victory last start and must be considered a chance again today from barrier 1, which should see him lead. (4) Streetcar To Stars might be able to turn the tables, though. He had his first run in just under 4 years last start when he finished 2nd. Must be a whole lot better suited second up today, gets a 2.5kg weight swing and draws well. (9) Tiffany’s Lass is flying but draws poorly in barrier 15, while (14) Kawabata and (15) Flaaj aren’t at all hopeless.
Also backing: (1) Thunder Cloud $5.50 Crownbet
(4) Streetcar to Stars
$4.60
RACE 7
Looks likely to be a race between (11) Another Coldie and (12) Call Me Handsome. Another Coldie comes off a very strong midweek win at Sandown, which was his first on soft ground in eight attempts. Back onto a firmer surface will only see him go better and he raced well in a couple of Saturday races prior to that win. Call Me Handsome has come back with three terrific wins and was huge in defeat last start after overracing and peeling out three-wide from the 800m mark. Barrier 1 ensures he gets a nice run but he won’t want to overrace again. He’s won his only start at the mile and is ready to step up in trip now with those three runs under his belt. Leaning slightly to Another Coldie. The value in the race could be another Weir runner, (8) Raw Impulse at $20. He drops in trip and gets the blinkers on for the first time, which generally works well for Weir horses. Keep safe.
Value: (8) Raw Impulse $20 Neds
(11) Another Coldie
$3.60
RACE 8
This is an absolute no-bet race for mine following the news (3) Trap For Fools would be wearing a three-quarter bar plate on one of his hooves after cracking it. I thought he looked a complete moral on paper but following that news I simply can’t back him unfortunately. (1) Pacodali produced a strong win last start but has a third up record which leaves him as a query here (three starts, no placings). (2) Morton’s Fork did well when finishing 3rd behind Sixties Groove and Trap For Fools last start at his first attempt at the distance. Sure to be better with that run under his belt and with the good draw might be the one to beat now, but you really have to take that horse on trust. No bets for me but if you’re still keen to back Trap For Fools, wait until jump time because you’ll get a much better price than you currently are.
RACE 9
Another tricky race to finish off with but there’s five main chances I’m interested in. (3) Princeton Spirit has been racing well in harder company than this, beaten just a length in Listed grade last start following a win at this track and distance two starts back. Carries weight here but did carry 59kg to victory in his last victory and should be right up on the speed. The value looks to be (8) Lord Barrington who ran 2nd to Princeton Spirit three starts ago and gets a 4.5kg weight swing here. Can roll forward from the wide gate to sit outside the leaders. (1) Labuan Star broke through for a win last start after a string of minor placings. Awkward draw but going too well to ignore. (6) Sharpness won a handy race last start, defeating Rillito and Life On The Wire. Tricky draw for her but if she gets across and finds a bit of cover she’ll be right there again, while (7) Nordic Empire is flying and shouldn’t be ruled out.
Value: (8) Lord Barrington $11 Neds
(3) Princeton Spirit
$6.00
