Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, October 2nd.
Nine races under lights at The valley this Friday on the eve of another big day of Group 1 racing in Australia! The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 7m.
Trent Crebbin takes a look at every race on Friday night with his tips and best bets below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 2nd
Best Bet: Race 8 - (4) Titan Blinders
Next Best: Race 4 - (6) Phoenix Global
Best Value: Race 9 - (4) Beautiful Bee
Happy to be with the map horse in the first which is (4) Mr Roger. This gelding has had three career starts, the first two notably on heavy tracks. He struck a good track last start and won nicely at Kilmore, settling 2nd in run and taking over early to record a dominant victory. He looks the sole leader on paper here so German should be able to control the race from barrier 4 and ideally get the chasers off the bit before the turn. (2) Criminal looks a touch short at $2 considering he’ll probably be a fair way back and has only won on a soft 6 or worse. (7) Trodaire looks the danger stepping up to 1600m but is another that maps awkwardly from barrier 2.
Could be a good little maiden with some newcomers showing above average talent, none more so than Toronado gelding (7) Shelby Cobra who looked very smart in a recent jumpout, missing the start but cruising to the line under a hold when running 2nd. My problem here is if he blows the start again, he’ll be last on the fence from barrier 2 which will be incredibly tough. The other two main chances come out of a Bendigo maiden, where (3) Fixated finished 2nd, narrowly ahead of (9) Viscacha who was on debut. They both had their chance there and there’s very little between them. Fixated probably maps better from barrier 5 and the tactics will be interesting on the Godolphin horse drawn barrier 11. He box seated on debut but there’s a chance Lane goes back as he’s not a noted aggressive rider. (1) Daunting Magic has jumped out well too on debut for the Archie Alexander stable. Found this very tough with a slight leaning to Fixated based on the map, but I won’t be getting carried away.
3000m over the Valley should be interesting to say the least. The favourite and best flat horse in the race is (1) Maseratie Bay, who has had two 2400m races to prepare for this. He’s won both nicely and whilst he hasn’t been over further, he’s the horse to beat, even with 60kg. (7) Northern Voyage led and won over 3200m last start and will be hard to run down for Waterhouse/Bott. That was his first flat run for a while, but he has to be respected off it. (8) Wolfe Tone is another who will easily run 3000m and potentially even find it too short. Getting back on a good surface should help too. (2) Jukila won over 3200m at Warnambool two back and will be in the finish too. Incredibly tough race, but if Maseratie Bay runs 3000m class should carry him a long way.
Good race for a bm64 on a Friday night. (6) Phoenix Global was disappointing first up for the new stable, fading from the lead to finish 8th, beaten 5 lengths. He did cop a fair bit of pressure in front there and fitness gave out late. Drawn barrier one here, Brown should take him to the front with minimal fuss, and in an easier race he could be tough to catch. His best form beating Alfa Oro would make him an absolute moral in this, so I’ll give him one more chance tonight. (9) Pioneer River looks the danger, but he was also disappointing first up and as a 3yo it’s not something you want to see. He did jump out well previously but will be a long way back again here so would need to find something quickly. Outside of those two the race is very thin, so I’m banking on Phoenix Global taking enough improvement and being hard to beat here.
If (8) Monetizing runs 1200m she’ll be hard to beat here. All her form is at 1000m, but she’s racing well. She knuckled at the start at Sandown but managed to run 5th in a solid race. Her run first up behind Cliffs Of Belaura was very good too, with that horse subsequently running 2nd to The Gauch, who won again very impressively over Phoenix Global. The danger looks to be the 3yo (10) Itzhot who has unfortunately drawn barrier one. I think this is a better race for him than at Flemington over 1100m, as his jumpouts have suggested he’ll get over a bit more ground this preparation. He ran some very good races in 3yo company, and a repeat of those performances make him hard to beat here. He will need a good ride from barrier one but at the odds I think he’s easily backable. (9) The Stylist took on some good mare’s races last prep and ran well. She’s never won first up but this is much easier and she has to be respected. At the odds I’ll be backing Itzhot and saving Monetizing.
Saver: (8) Monetizing $3.90
The 2nd of the 55 second challenge races for the season. Unfortunately no moral like Alfa Oro last week but it’s a competitive race. I’d mark (9) Dane Clipper favourite here over (5) Meteorite so on that basis I have to be with Dane Clipper at the odds. This mare won her maiden on debut very impressively, bolting in by nearly 5L. She then contested some hot 3yo races, running 3rd to Sisstar and 4th to Somals at this track. If she brings her best 3yo form, she should simply be too fast for them here. Drawn wide, Willo should be able to come across and sit outside the leader. Even if he’s forced to sit three wide or take a sit, I think she’ll be too strong here off a recent jumpout win. (8) Unicorny loves The Valley and has to be respected here and looks the danger at odds, but pretty keen on Dane Clipper.
(3) Look Sharpish should take a stack of beating here 4th up. She gets out to her preferred distance after two good runs at the mile, winning one and only being run down late by an in form mare at her last start. She maps nicely from barrier 5 here and her one run at this distance range was a 2nd in the Tasmanian Oaks. If (1) Firstclass Dreamer can run 2040m he’d be right in the game, but he’s failed at anything over 1600m in the past and with the big weight I’m prepared to risk him. (4) Excelman is the favourite but looks short enough. He was disqualified after bolting in before the jockey weighed in heavy two back and couldn’t quite get the win last start as the $1.85 favourite, but he ran very well. He’s never raced past 1700m so the step up in trip is a slight query, although he should be ready for it now. His best 3yo form makes him very competitive, I’d just prefer to be with Look Sharpish at the odds available.
(4) Titan Blinders will be hard to beat here. He’s run 2nd at all three starts this preparation, the latest at Flemington when just run down late by the unbeaten Challiot. The start before he did a stack of work on the synthetic as favourite, and he looks suited here with that 1400m run under his belt. I expect Willo to be very aggressive out of the gates, go straight to the front and be very hard to run down. (3) Sovereign Award drops back to 1400m which I’m not sure will suit. She’s been consistent all prep and her record at the T/D is very good with 2 wins from 3 starts. Even with the drop in distance she looks the clear danger. (5) Chuck A Luck ran a much improved race 2nd up but draws very wide here and will get a long way back. Titan Blinders will be a long way in front coming into the straight.
We could be waiting a while for this race, because (8) Just Zerene is a headcase. She can be very hard to load and does a lot wrong, but she’s clearly talented and was only run down by a huge effort from Parlophone last start at listed level. At the odds on quote you’d have to be brave to back her, but if she does everything right, she’ll be winning. I’ll be taking her on here with two mares that can run well at big odds. The first is (2) The Commoner who comes here first up from a spell. She’s 2/2 when fresh and clearly likes her runs spaced. She’s run well in good company including the 955m series, running 4th to Bella Vella in the final. She draws barrier 3 here and should lob just behind the leaders and with any luck in the straight will be hard to hold out. The other is (4) Beautiful Bee who has won her last two, the most recent at Sandown over the 1000m. Sickeningly for me she knocked off my $31 best value by a nose, but a repeat of that run certainly puts her in this race. She’ll start big odds because of her SP profile, and you could do worse than have something on, because she’s the fit in form mare who can sit just off the speed and produce her best again.
Value: (4) Beautiful Bee $34
