Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, November 15th.
We kick off another big weekend of racing in Australia with eight races under lights at The Valley, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position.
Check out @Tim_Tips' race-by-race preview below.
Horse Racing Tips: Friday, November 15th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (4) Heavenly Emperor
Best Value: Race 3 - (5) Blue Bear
Nothing like a 3000m race to kick off a Friday night! My betting here will be minimal but I'll be following (5) Golden Gee and (6) Pretty Mama who both come out of the same race at Echuca. Pretty Mama won that contest and Golden Gee ran 2nd, but Golden Gee gets a 4kg weight swing in his favour today. He also didn't get much luck last start, held up until about the 150m mark. He's finished in the money in six of his past seven starts so there's little doubt he'll be around the mark again. He'd appreciate a softer track but the Valley has a bit of cushion which may suit him. Pretty Mama might have a few things against her, namely the weight swing and the wide draw, but she can definitely defy that to win again. She's hit form and just needs some luck. The $6.00 on offer isn't a bad bet. (2) Bemboka Queen hit the line well last start for 4th here at The Valley and that was in a stronger race than this behind a promising stayer in Defibrillate. Backing both small.
Value: (6) Pretty Mama $6.00
Very keen to back (4) Darci's Tune here. Patrick Payne is absolutely flying, with 25 winners and 30 placings from his last 100 starters! He's had five runners at The Valley this season, for two winners and one 2nd. Together, him and jockey Billy Egan are striking at 27% this season, with a ROI of 20%. They are some outstanding figures. This horse has come across from New Zealand and we saw the stable win a race here at The Valley two weeks ago with another lightly-raced horse they recently picked up from across the Tasman. This horse won its first start for the stable at Horsham and did it dominantly. The time wasn't flash but he's just such an astute trainer and he wouldn't be bringing it to town if it couldn't win. Looks a definite bet at $3.90. The other horse that appeals to me is another former Kiwi, (2) Talenti. It won on debut back in May and has run 4th in both starts this prep. Makes his stable debut here for Robert Hickmott, who also trains the early favourite (1) Atone. Talenti will get back but draws well in barrier 6 for its racing pattern. Barend Vorster takes the ride and the step up to 1500m is ideal. Should be flashing late. Backing Darci's Tune and saving on Talenti here.
Save on (2) Talenti $4.80
There is a great each way bet here in the form of (5) Blue Bear at $11 and he's my best value bet of the night. He's had two runs back from a spell, winning first up at Mornington before being beat half-a-length in Adelaide last start. He comes into tonight third up from a spell and his third up record is terrific. He's finished in the top two in three of his four starts, and the one that he didn't was last prep where he had no luck at all at Caulfield. His only start over this track and distance was a 2nd placing, beaten 0.5L by Dunlani, and in that race, he finished 7L ahead of (1) Bianco Nuovo who was back in 3rd. He meets that same horse again tonight at basically the same weights, yet he's $11 and Bianco Nuovo is favourite!! (9) Green Ivy is yet to place from three starts when third up. (7) Play Me Now is ready to win third up, (11) Converging next best. Blue Bear is the best each way bet of the night!
(10) Dane Clipper is a clear top pick here but we need some luck from barrier 1, which can be a death trap at Moonee Valley on some occasions. She brings some very good formlines to this race. Two starts ago she was beaten by Sisstar down the straight at Flemington and Sisstar came out and won a G3 fillies race down the straight during Cup week. Last start she raced over 1000m here but was caught three-deep no cover and was still only beaten 2.1L by Ruuca. Jockey change tonight, drawn soft, gets an easy run but just needs a bit of luck at the top of the straight and she should be hard to beat. (3) Helevabel won on debut at Mornington and the horse that ran 3rd to him has since come out and won so that's a good sign for his chances tonight. He'll go forward and probably sit outside the leader which puts him in a strong winning position. That leader could be (2) Equaletta who returns as a gelding and we have to watch the market with this stable. (1) Cosmic Rapsody also not hopeless coming into this off two wins. Good little race!
Competitive little 955m here. (5) Starvirgo had no luck whatsoever first up in a simiar race, where he was held up the entire straight and never got a crack at them. With clear air he probably would have won. He draws out tonight in barrier 11 so he should have no dramas getting some space and if he travels as well as he did first up then he'll be a live chance of rounding them up. (2) Miss Street has been very consistent throughout her career, with 11 placings from 13 starts. She's won five of those and all five have been over 1000m. She's posted some big winning margins and if she's ready to go fresh tonight, she's certainly capable of winning. The tongue tie goes on for the first time, the only little query I have is the jockey booking but at the odds she's worth backing. (10) Three Beans drops from Group 3 company back to a BM70 so he'll find this much easier. My query is he's run over 1200m in both starts this prep and now tackles a 955, but he draws to get the run of the race and should be right in the mix.
Value: (2) Miss Street $12
Very keen on (4) Heavenly Emperor here. He returned with a 2nd placing at Bendigo first up, where he was only beaten a nose. He's had two starts when second up for a win and a 0.2L defeat, and the last time he raced over a mile was last preparation when he won at Flemington. He's a versatile horse that can go forward or back so he's got options from barrier 5 and if he brings his best form, he should be winning. (9) Lord Of Darkness draws poorly but is a promising horse, still only lightly-raced. Comes off a nice win at Bendigo when we backed him and he remains undefeated at the distance.
(4) Heavenly Emperor
$2.60
One of the most open races on the card. (3) Thine Is The Power resumes here. She's placed in nine of her 13 career starts, two of which were wins. She's placed in both starts at this track and distance, and she has two wins and four placings at this distance from six starts. There looks decent speed in the race so from barrier 6 she should be able to sit off that pace and come home late. Finds a winnable race. (13) Can'tforgetyou is a filly I've backed a couple times and I won't be dropping off. She worked home well last start after coming five-wide on the turn. She was only beaten 0.7L and prior to that she was luckless in defeat at Mornington. She's racing well and with an easier run from barrier 2 she could surge home late at each way odds. The chances don't end there.
Value: (13) Can'tforgetyou $9.50
(3) Thine Is The Power
$6.00
Interesting one to finish off with. Jockey Mark Zahra makes the trip to Moonee Valley for one ride tonight and that ride is (10) More Sundays for the Lindsay Park team. She won impressively on debut back in August last year, but she's failed to go on with it after that. She's been racing in strong company throughout her four-start career but she's been disappointing the past few times we've seen her. She resumes from a spell tonight with the blinkers coming off for the first time. Her two jumpouts at Flemington leading into this have been good and you'd have to think they've got her ready to win if Zahra is making his way out at 10pm on a Friday night for one ride! Drawn well, has no excuses, she'll be sacked and put in the 'never again' file if she doesn't win this tonight. (3) Good Therapy is the obvious value in the race and a good each way bet at $10. He was beaten a nose first up and his second up record is outstanding, with three wins and two placings from five starts. He's won over this track and distance previously so at double figure odds he's worth a bet. (9) Crimson Tycoon has won his first two starts this prep by a combined 13.6L. They were only in a maiden at Port Lincoln and a 0-58 at Bendigo, but I'd suggest he's up to the grade. (1) Bianconi Magic not hopeless.
Value: (3) Good Therapy $10
