Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Moonee Valley night racing on Friday, February 2nd.
We’ve got an eight-race card under lights, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 2m. As always, on-pace is best at the Valley, but it did play particularly fair last week.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Sanctimonious
Best Value: Race 8 For A Song EW
RACE 1
Competitive little two-year-old race to kick things off. They’ll need to be pretty good to beat (4) Sanctimonious from the Tony McEvoy stable with Craig Williams aboard. This horse ran a big race on debut on heavy ground at Sandown before going to Sydney, where he ran 5th, beaten 2.1L. That doesn’t tell the full story though. He had nothing go right throughout the race, and still managed to run home strongly despite copping a big check at the 500m mark. He’ll likely get back in the small field but if he’s close enough on the turn he’ll be hard to hold out. (7) Metronome is on debut and draws the inside gate, which should allow it to be prominent in the run. The only jumpout I could find was one back in October, so it’s very hard to get a gauge on this runner. Respect any money for it before the jump from this stable. (5) Cross Legend is on debut for the Lindsay Park stable, and you always have to respect their juveniles. Jumped out relatively well at Flemington but I didn’t think it was anything spectacular. (6) Dramadale ran 3rd at Sale on debut and the form out of that race could actually turn out quite strong so I wouldn’t rule her out. Tricky race but (4) Sanctimonious on top.
TIP: (4) Sanctimonious
RACE 2
Three horses I’m interested in here. (10) Viennese Star goes on top after two eye-catching jumpouts at Caulfield leading into its debut tonight. She went to the line under a stranglehold in her first jumpout, and then was allowed to lead at her second jumpout, where she cleared out from the field. Mark Zahra takes the ride and from the good draw she should be up on speed throughout. Taking $3. (3) Dharma is the value here and I’d highly recommend having something on at the $9.50 currently available. This is a Ken Keys filly on debut and the big hint here is Craig Williams taking the ride. With Hayes and Weir runners in the field, it’s notable that Williams rides a Ken Keys horse. From the wide barrier I’d expect them to punch forward and if he finds the lead it could be very hard to catch. There’s already been a trickle of money for it, and I’d expect it to start shorter than what’s currently available. (1) All Too Handy absolutely terrifies me. She was only 3rd on debut at Ballarat but we saw Weir bring a very smart two-year-old to the Valley last week off a similar run, and that was hammered in the market pre-race. Lane booked to ride from the good gate, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it well-backed and win. Saving on it at the $5.50.
TIP: (10) Viennese Star / (3) Dharma EW
RACE 3
Only interested in two runners here. I’ll be backing (4) Eyes Are Blue who comes off a dominant win over 2460m at Mornington last start. This is a big step up in grade from BM58 to BM84, but Darren Weir wouldn’t put him in here if he couldn’t win, and in terms of BM84’s, this is a pretty weak affair. There’s $2.35 on offer which seems good enough for me. Save on (1) Crafty Cruiser, who just seems to do his best racing here. Incredibly, he’s had seven starts at this track and distance, and has run 2nd in six of them. He gets in very well at the weights with the 2kg claim, which brings him pretty-well level with Eyes Are Blue. He’ll run an honest race and at $6.50 he’s the only one I think poses a genuine threat.
TIP: (4) Eyes Are Blue
RACE 4
Could be another one for Weir here with (4) Quilista who is fresh up from a spell tonight. She’s got a great first up record with two wins and a 2nd from four starts, and I’m tipping they may let her bowl along in front, which is how she’s best ridden. From barrier 6, she should be able to kick up and hold the inside, and from there she’ll be tough to run down. (3) El Sicario has returned a much better horse as a gelding this preparation, backing up his solid first up run with a good win at Sandown last start. He led on that occasion, but he may have to sit outside Quilista tonight from barrier 8. He hasn’t produced at this track from three starts so far in his career, and he’s also failed in three third up runs, so there are some queries with him tonight. (7) Angry Gee should get the sit on them from barrier 4 and will be launching late if they over do it up front, while (6) Punt Club has a good record at the track and distance and is the best roughie in the race at $11.
TIP: (4) Quilista
RACE 5
A race with many chances. Leaning towards (7) Marching On here, who’s run over this distance at his past two starts. He was a winner at Cranbourne two starts ago, despite pulling up lame, and went down very narrowly at Sandown last time out. Above Authority came out of that race and won its next start so the form looks reasonable. From barrier 11 he should slide across to sit up on speed, and he drops from 60.5kg to 54.5kg tonight with the claim for Steph Thornton. (9) Persian Empire comes up the short-price favourite, and probably deservedly so. Williams chooses to jump off Marching On and stick with Persian Empire, which is a positive sign. He only went down very narrowly at Caulfield last start when dropping back to 1600m off a short freshen up, but he should be much better suited with that run under his belt and stepping back up to 2000m here. Draws well, hard to beat. (3) Eureka Street is working back into form, while (5) Big Pat’s Pontiac can be competitive at bigger odds.
TIP: (7) Marching On
RACE 6
This is a terrible race and I can find negatives about most of the favoured runners so it’s really not a confident betting race. I really wanted to take on (10) Warragul but it goes on top by default. It only broke its maiden two starts ago (though it did it the tough way) and failed to beat Takookacod last start at Wagga (a horse that couldn’t win a Highway Handicap), so there’s obvious concerns there, but it was ridden horribly last start and gets the biggest jockey change you can probably get, going from Stacy Metcalfe to Craig Williams. It looks open to improvement still given it’s only had six starts, so with the good draw it can improve enough to feature here. I’m prepared to back (8) Nothing But A Saga each way as well. This horse put two wins together before simply getting too far back at Pakenham last start. It’s going to find itself a long way back again here which is its main issue, but it’s not the worst in the race and at $14 certainly isn’t the worst bet. (4) Smash The Gong and (11) Simeulue are others to include. If you look at the other fancied runners – (1) Excitement has had six starts at the distance for one minor placing, (2) Wrecking Ball won a very lowly $10k race two starts ago but was beaten 4L last start, (3) Sir Mask has never placed from four starts when second up, and (6) O’Lonhro Bay has never placed from three second up runs. Hard to get excited about this one.
TIP: (10) Warragul / (8) Nothing But A Saga EW
RACE 7
(9) The Avenger can bounce back here if he can sit a touch closer from the inside gate. He was a winner at Caulfield two starts ago before probably getting too far back last start, though that was a strong race he contested and he’ll find this a good deal easier. He’ll need luck from barrier 1 but Oliver is starting to really find form as we head towards the Group 1’s, so I’m prepared to stick with him here. We might just see significant improvement from this import of Darren Weir’s, (6) Cullingworth. The 1400m first up was never going to suit him, so the step up to 1600m tonight is more in his favour. To add to that, he draws well tonight in barrier 4, so he’s another that can settle closer in the run as opposed to last like he was from the wide barrier first up. The give in the Moonee Valley track is another factor that could bring about improvement – often the European imports struggle on the firm ground like Caulfield, so the softer ground here might suit him better. At $7 I think he’s worth a bet tonight. (3) Floral Fever has been racing in country cups but he’s struck form and his last win was franked by Vianden bolting in at its next start. (4) Domino Vitale found form as she tends to do third up. She can go well again from the good draw.
TIP: (9) The Avenger / (6) Cullingworth EW
RACE 8
Nice race to finish off with. Keen on two here. (1) Brugal Reward comes back to Melbourne after a narrow defeat in Adelaide last start. She’s got a terrific record at this track and distance with two wins and a 2nd from three starts, and if Weir’s runners are going as well as they were here last week, she should be right in the finish. Drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 8 but she should at least get a clear crack at them. Taking $5.50. (8) For A Song won for us at good odds last time out and can be very competitive once again tonight. She should be able to find the lead, and with just 53.5kg she can give a bold sight. She went close over this track and distance a few starts ago and has finished in the money at her past six starts so at $6.50 I’d expect her to be there once again. (4) Mystified is worth saving on at $4.60. She is over from Adelaide and finished right alongside Brugal Reward last start, and gets a small weight swing in her favour tonight. My concern is that her record over 1200m is poor, with just one placing from four starts, but she is Ryan Balfour’s only runner of the night and Jamie Kah’s only ride for the night – they wouldn’t be coming over from Adelaide for just one horse without reason! (7) Cullemy’s Diamond gets a 4kg weight swing on For A Song from last start, but she has a poor second up record and I’ll take her on here. (9) Alaskan Sun is another that gets a weight swing on For A Song, and she does draw well. She has some claims.
TIP: (1) Brugal Reward / (8) For A Song EW
QUADDIE
5, 7, 9
3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11
3, 4, 6, 9
1, 4, 8
$100 = 46.29%
Always Gamble Responsibly.
