Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for night racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, February 23rd.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. It was actually slightly advantageous to be coming down the outside, rather than be hard up against the rail last week with the rail out 5m. It goes back to the True position here so it’s hard to tell how it will play this week.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #4 Freeze Over
Best Value: Race 7 #4 Pretty Fast
RACE 1
(1) Iconoclasm was my best bet of the night but has since been scratched, so I've got the other Weir runner on top - (4) Leicester. He comes to town after a dominant win last start at Terang, which followed a luckless first up run at Ballarat, in a race that has since turned out to be a strong form reference. (6) Ice Hunt also ran in that race at Ballarat and then came out and won his next start, as did Sirius Suspect, who won at Caulfield on Wednesday. Tipping Leicester to turn the tables on Ice Hunt tonight. (9) Tuskar Brook led from start to finish last start and could be tough to run down with a soft run in front with the small field here.
TIP: (4) Leicester
RACE 2
Competitive little race and not a confident betting race. Leaning to (4) Freeze Over here, who returned with a great win first up from a long spell with 59kg on her back. She led all the way on that occasion and I expect she’ll be better with that run under her belt. Drops slightly in weight, and a key factor is Damian Lane choosing to stick with her. I think she will spear across to lead again and with the rail back in the True position, they might be hard to run down early. (3) Demerara returns from a spell here with a trial win up in Sydney under her belt. Although she won the trial, it was the second slowest 735m trial of the day. From barrier 2, will they kick up to lead or will Williams take a sit? She’s been competitive in better grade than this so it won’t shock anyone if she wins. (5) Holy Blade won impressively at Sandown last start and steps up sharply in grade here. Damian Lane jumps off from that win to keep the ride on Freeze Over. (1) Avanti Rose could be the underrated runner here. She’s won three on the trot now and the latest was at this track and distance. And then you’ve got (2) Easy Beast first up with Oliver riding for Richard Laming, which is always ominous. Wary of (6) Kronos who has been $61 into $26 early, first up from a spell.
TIP: (4) Freeze Over
RACE 3
Keen to be with (7) Invincible Al who is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for. He won over this track and distance first up last preparation, and he returns from two months off the track here so faces this test under similar conditions. He’ll likely sit at the rear of this field, so hopefully the track is playing fairly. A positive is the booking of Steph Thornton, who is riding Moonee Valley better than anyone at present. Carrying just 52kg, he should be hard to beat. I think (4) Demonstrate will be ready to peak. He’s had two runs back from a spell and his latest effort at Flemington was good. His third up record is four starts for two wins and a placing, so he looks ready to fire now. Craig Williams has been on board all preparation and he’s also a winner at this track and distance. He currently sits on the fourth line of betting at $6. (1) Itz Invincible looks a logical chance in the race but I’d rather take him on with 3kg apprentice Jack Martin taking the ride. Backing both Invincible Al and Demonstrate.
TIP: (7) Invincible Al / (4) Demonstrate EW
RACE 4
Really only interested in two horses here. It looks a very nice race for (1) Al Haram to break through for his first Australian win. He’s had four starts in Australia after a lengthy spell, and the French import should be at peak fitness now. The step up to 3000m looks ideal and he drops in grade from what he’s been running against lately. I also think he’ll appreciate the little bit of cushion in the Moonee Valley track. In-form apprentice Fred Kersley takes off 2kg. Locking in $3. (2) King Kamada looks the danger after two placings over the 2500m distance at this track in his past two starts. Outside of those two, (6) Crafty Cruiser has a great record over this track and distance and will run his usual honest race here. (10) Barachino could be one to throw in at $61. The stable is flying.
TIP: (1) Al Haram
RACE 5
Three main horses I’m interested in here. I’ve got (1) Scuzi on top after two dominant wins in her past two starts at Hamilton and Ballarat, winning by a combined margin of 6L, and both with big weights. She looks ready to step up to this kind of company now. She draws awkwardly and will get back in the field so hopefully the pattern is allowing horses to loop from the back. $5.50 looks a decent price. (10) Divertente looks a decent each way price. She’s one of just two rides on the night for Mark Zahra, who is in great form and wouldn’t be coming for two rides if they weren’t chances. If the track is favouring on-pacers then expect her to shorten in the market from her current $7.50 quote. (4) Weekend Escape is undefeated from two starts. My query is that both have been on synthetic tracks, but she trialled well leading into this first up assignment.
TIP: (1) Scuzi / (10) Divertente EW
RACE 6
Sticking with (5) Marching On here who was given no hope last start when trapped three-wide without cover the entire trip. His form prior to that was well and truly good enough to win this, and Craig Williams takes over for the ride here. The weight will make it a bit tougher but he went very close to starts ago with 60.5kg so it can be done. The value could be Darren Weir’s (13) Imperial Edition, who won over 2000m two starts ago before dropping back to the mile last start. Back up in trip now, and it interests me that Damian Lane takes the ride on this horse. $16. (6) King Valour, (10) Manning Road, (11) Divine Command and (3) Shaq are all live chances.
TIP: (5) Marching On / (13) Imperial Edition EW
RACE 7
Terrific race. I was with (1) Tulip first up and I thought she was fairly disappointing. She’s got a great record at this track, draws perfectly and has Kerrin McEvoy on board, but I just have to take her on here after that first up performance. Siding with (2) Bella Martini, though the booking of Dwayne Dunn is a negative for mine. She should speed out to lead, and she bolted in at her only start over this track and distance. She’s got a phenomenal record at this distance with four wins from five starts, and she’ll take some catching. (4) Pretty Fast is the value. She failed last start up at the Gold Coast but before that she was flying. She’s one of only two rides on the night for Mark Zahra and she’s also won four of her five starts over this distance. Draws poorly but having something on at $11. (5) Seannie is up to this grade. Her first up win was simply outstanding, almost freakish. She’ll once again get back and need luck but the way she finished off last start suggests she’s up to a race like this. I could make a case for (10) Tarcoola Spirit at $35 so include her in your numbers. (6) Regimen and (14) Platinum Angel others to consider.
TIP: (2) Bella Martini / (4) Pretty Fast EW
RACE 8
Really like (5) Freehearted as a horse but barrier 14 makes this a very tough task given where she’s likely to position in the run. It might cost me dearly jumping off her today but at $2.60 we’re not getting a very good price. There’s a few at good odds that could cause an upset here. Weir’s other horse in the race is (9) Poseidon’s Pool at $11, and Damian Lane jumps aboard today. Last prep this horse matched it with the likes of Jukebox, so despite an average first up performance, I’ll give him another chance here. (7) Bee Jay Zed was a horse I backed at about $41 first up and he’s $26 here. He was good first up behind Seannie without any luck. He’ll be searching for that luck again from barrier 1 but he won second up last prep and could be a sneaky chance once again. (12) Gauteng Girl is much better suited second up and could show up at $67. (10) Booradley maps to find the front and from there he’ll be tough to run down. He’s racing very consistently and was close up in a strong race last time out.
TIP: (9) Poseidon’s Pool EW / (7) Bee Jay Zed EW
QUADDIE (looks a tough one!)
1, 4, 6, 8, 10
5, 6, 10, 11, 13
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 14
5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$100 = 11.42%
