Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, December 7th.
We’ve got eight races on a Good 3 track with the rail in the true position.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Beetobe
Best Value Bet: Race 3 Plenty
RACE 1
Two-year-old race over the 1000m with all eight runners on debut. Not a big betting race but happy to have something on the favourite Maktabba for the Lindsay Park team with Craig Williams in the saddle. She jumped out pretty smartly at Flemington a few weeks ago, settling near the back of the small field and slicing her way through approaching the turn before asserting dominance towards the line. This stable always performs well in these juvenile races and Williams in the saddle is a good lead. Important to watch the market with other runners.
RACE 2
Going to stick with the Darren Weir-trained Declares War, who I backed last start and I thought he was pretty strong to the line on that occasion, which indicates the step up to 1500m shouldn’t be an issue tonight. The slight query will be carrying 60kg coming from back in the field with the rail in the true position, but we often see Weir’s horses make this sort of progression early in their careers. Tall Lady comes off a strong win at Pakenham last start and Jerome Hunter has a good record with runners at Moonee Valley. He’s had three winners from seven starters at Moonee Valley this season, resulting in a 198% ROI. Could be the value at $8.50. Igniter drops in grade after finishing 2nd to the very promising Mr Quickie last start.
RACE 3
Very keen to bet here. Angel Lass comes off a 2nd placing to the progressive My Pendant at Sandown Lakeside and we saw My Pendant come out and win again impressively after that. Provided she gets a comfortable run from barrier 9, she should be featuring in the finish here at $3.80. Also very keen to have something on Plenty at $6.50. He was an absolute tragedy beat first up when he completely bombed the start by 4L, but still managed to run home into 3rd. If he jumps with them tonight, he’ll take plenty of holding out.
RACE 4
Sticking with another last-start Weir winner in Beetobe, who won over this track and distance three weeks ago at just her third career start. She looked to be a progressive staying filly when she put up that performance and it’s notable that she gets the blinkers on for the first time tonight coming off that win. She’ll need to be strong again coming from back in the field but she does meet a pretty tired field here. Be Instant finished last two starts ago but her two runs this prep outside of that have been good. She could be the value with Oliver on board. Currently $10.
RACE 5
Despite carrying 61.5kg here, I’m happy to stick with Reward With Return, who ran super over this track and distance two starts ago before going one better last start over the 1000m. Back slightly in trip and up in weight, but drawn better tonight and he’s racing in terrific form. He can go close again so looks a reasonable each way bet at $5.50/$2.00. Shir returns as a gelding first up for Danny O’Brien and Damien Oliver. He did enough in his first prep to suggest he may be up to a race like this fresh but the query is the 955m after he was stretched out to 1500m last prep. Ray’s Dream draws ideally in barrier 1 for Jamie Mott and John McArdle. Has trialled well leading into her first up run tonight.
RACE 6
Critical Thinking was one of the more painful results I’ve had in recent times when he went down by a nose over this track and distance last start at 30/1. He got all the favours on that occasion from barrier 1 and he faces a very different set of circumstances tonight. He’s up in the weights, has a 3kg apprentice on and draws barrier 10. But with that said, he drops in grade and finds another winnable race, and the horse that beat him last start has since come out and won again, so the form stacks up. He’s a $4.00 chance tonight and I hate backing apprentices from these wide barriers, but I’d be spewing if he won tonight and I’d gone against him so I’ll follow my money and put him on top again. Craig Williams takes the ride on Rox The Castle from barrier 1. He was good first up at Ballarat and should be open to plenty of improvement second up tonight. Goethe and Brahmos are both capable of winning this at good odds. Aaadelad the blowout at $26. He’s drawn to get a good run tonight.
RACE 7
Three that interest me most here. Immaculate Secret couldn’t have been any more impressive at Terang first up. She sped out to lead and cruised home to win hard held by 2.25L. From barrier 3, she should be able to find the front again and will take plenty of catching. Vivi Valentina backed up her first up win at Pakenham with another good effort behind Solar Star at this track and distance last start. She should get a lovely run from barrier 4 and has every chance of winning this. I think the blowout chance is Ensuing from the Andrew Noblet stable. She’s drawn poorly in barrier 10 but she’s got a terrific first up record (three starts, two wins and a 2nd) and also has a solid record at the distance. She won easily first up last prep and she should be hitting the line hard at big odds.
RACE 8
Wide-open way to finish the night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout result. Palazzo Vecchio has had my money most of the preparation and she really gets her chance to win again tonight. Up to 2000m, drawn well and gets a nice claim for King so she gets in very well at the weights. Rondalago could be one of the roughies to run a good race. She’s got a terrific third up record with three top-two finishes from as many starts and she’s undefeated from two starts at the distance. I’ll be keeping the investment on this race minimal. Something small on both of the above mentioned horses.
Value: Rondalago $27 Sportsbet
