Sunday afternoon football kicks off at the MCG as Melbourne look to bounce back from their Opening Round defeat, when they take on the Western Bulldogs. There's been plenty of recent history between these two teams, so we should be set for an entertaining contest!
The Before You Bet team will have you covered with free previews and betting tips for every game in the 2024 AFL season, check out our AFL Tips to stay up to date with our coverage of the 2024 AFL Season.
2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 1:00pm AEDT, 17th March, MCG
A lacklustre final quarter was the catalyst to Melbourne’s loss in the season opener against the Swans last week, as the Demons conceded five goals to two in the final term after being within two points at three quarter time. Plenty was made of Melbourne’s inefficient forward half which kicked 2.8 in the opening half, however it was simply a weight of the numbers which overwhelmed the Dees defence. The Swans converted 33.8% of their inside 50’s into scores, while Melbourne converted 33.3% of their inside 50’s into scores, however Sydney recorded 14 more inside 50’s than Melbourne.
What would have frustrated Simon Goodwin was the stoppage work of his side, who were beaten at the coalface by a young Swans midfield. The Demons were -11 in clearances (34-45) and the Swans took full advantage of their clearance dominance in the final quarter.
Jack Viney was the Dees’ best player with 30 disposals, 7 clearances and 7 tackles, while Clayton Oliver sent a statement after a tumultuous preseason, picking up 30 disposals and 6 clearances.
Melbourne have made five changes this week as Jake Bowey (collarbone), Charlie Spargo (achilles), Adam Tomilson, Bailey Laurie and Josh Schache (omitted) come out of the side. Kozzy Pickett headlines the inclusions for the Dees alongside Marty Hore, Tom McDonald, Taj Woewodin and Ben Brown.
The Western Bulldogs kick off their 2024 campaign looking to bounce back after failing to make the top eight in season 2023, despite having an extremely talented list. The Bulldogs brought in Nick Coffield from St Kilda, Lachlan Bramble from Hawthorn and former Demon James Harmes who will make their debuts for the Dogs this weekend.
Ryley Sanders who was taken at pick number six in the 2023 draft will make his highly anticipated debut after dominating the preseason, while Harvey Gallagher who was picked up in the 2022 draft will also make his debut.
The Bulldogs looms as one of the toughest teams to predict coming into season 2024. It’s clear they have an abundance of talent on their list with plenty of star power in the midfield, and a forward line spearheaded by Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. However there are question marks over the key defensive posts outside of Liam Jones, and it was clear that Luke Beveridge’s method became quite outdated.
The Dogs went 2-0 in their preseason fixtures, however both were played against Hawthorn, so fans shouldn’t be reading into those results too much. If the Bulldogs play to their potential they will make finals, however they haven’t played up to their potential in the two seasons following the 2021 Grand Final defeat, so it’s hard to trust them.
Match Prediction: Melbourne will enjoy being back on the wide expanses of the MCG, and with the temperature set to reach 29 degrees on Sunday, it will be a very different looking game to the slog they played at a dewy SCG last week. Having the continuity of playing last week will be a major advantage for the Demons and should allow them to run out the game better than the Bulldogs, whose last practice match was two weeks ago.
Melbourne’s key talls up forward in Jacob Van Rooyen and Ben Brown could provide a matchup nightmare for the Bulldogs who only have one genuine key defender in Liam Jones. Buku Khamis will likely play as an undersized key back, which could prove disastrous if Demons can get consistent supply inside forward 50. Melbourne have won three of the last four meetings between the two sides in emphatic fashion, with those three victories coming by an average of 50 points, which was the exact margin when the Dees and Dogs last met in Round One of 2023.
Melbourne -7.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare button below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Jack Viney 30+ Disposals: Viney picked up from where he left off last season, with a 30 disposal performance against the Swans carrying on from his remarkable second half of 2023. Viney has averaged 27 disposals per game from his last six games, including three 30 disposal performances, and will be desperate to put in a big performance to help the Dees bounce back.
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals: Petracca has hit the 25+ disposal mark in three of his last four games including a 26 disposal performance in Opening Round. Petracca loves playing against the Bulldogs, having record disposal tallies of 30, 24, 38, 39 and 31 in his last five games against the Dogs.
Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals: Despite the Bulldogs having an underwhelming campaign, the Bulldogs skipper was still at his elite best averaging 27 disposals per game. Bontempelli hit the 25 disposal mark in 19 of his 23 games last season, and only failed to reach 25 disposals once after Round 13.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at BoomBet
