Ipswich Racing Tips for Saturday, June 17th

Group 1 racing is over for the time being but the Queensland carnival makes its way to Ipswich for Cup Day. There are 9 races on the card with the Cup supported by the Eye Liner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic.

The track is rated a Soft 7. We have betting tips for every race on the card below.

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Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, 17th of June

Race 1

Tough way to start the day here with a capacity field and a $6 favourite. There's only two I'm interested in having something on here at decent odds. The first is MOONLIGHT DANCER who has won 2 from 4 this prep, both on Soft tracks which is what she'll get here. She's got 2 wins and a placing from 4 starts at the track and distance and despite the wide barrier her form is good enough to see her feature in the finish here. $9 available for her. The second is ELJETEM who comes into this first up for the new stable. His latest form hasn't been good at all but if he can rediscover his form that saw him win a BM70 in Melbourne city grade then he will be a big chance here. The key for him is the wet track as his wet track form is much better than his dry track form, but he's also got a good record at the distance. Draws well and the early money suggests he could be ready to go fresh. $8.50 available.

Tip: Moonlight Dancer / Eljetem

Race 2

WILLIAM WALLACE ($4) looks hard to beat on the back of a pretty dominant last start win at the Sunshine Coast, however I'll only be backing him if the track is in the Soft range. If it gets to Heavy, I won't be backing him at all after his disappointing first up run in Australia where he was beaten 7 lengths on a heavy track. If the track hits the heavy range, I'll be backing SEEKING ASYLUM at $6 who is first up for the Toby Edmonds stable. She's been racing in Sydney but all her best form is on wet ground. She's had 9 starts on Good ground for 0 placings, but her wet track form reads much better.She ran 2nd on Soft ground in Sydney last start, so she is good enough to get in the money here. Jeff Lloyd is a strong booking. The value in the race is ABOHAR who comes into this 3rd up from a spell where she has a good record. She's finished in the top 2 at 3 of her 4 starts when 3rd up, has won her only start at the track and has won 4 from 8 on Soft ground. $17 looks a decent price.

Tip: William Wallace (if Soft) / Seeking Asylum (if Heavy) / Abohar EW

Race 3

Three that interest me here. the first is STEAMIN' who won over this track and distance two starts ago on a Soft track in similar company, albeit in a field of just 6 runners. He then went to midweek Sydney grade and was beaten just 1L by Pelorus Jack on a Good track, and if you consider the fact that his wet form reads much better than his dry form, then it was a good performance. Corey Brown keeps the ride, should box seat from the good barrier, gets back on Soft ground and at a track and distance he's won at. Looks a great chance at $7.50. The value in the race is BECKONING LIGHT at $15. This horse hasn't shown a great deal at his first two runs back from a spell but he tends to improve sharply at his third run back from a spell. He's finished in the top 2 at all 3 starts when 3rd up, he's won at the track and he's won on both Soft and Heavy ground. Think he's a big chance in this. The other to consider is EIGHT BELOW for Jeff Lloyd.He's won 3 from 4 over this track and distance.

Tip: Steamin' / Beckoning Light EW (Best Value)

Race 4

Open race for the two-year-olds, as they usually are. INITIALIZE draws wide here but that might not stop him winning this. He's won two from three this prep, with his only defeat coming in Group 3 company at the hands of Taking Aim, who then placed in the Group 1 JJ Atkins last weekend. First up he won by nearly 3 lengths on a Soft track over 1000m, and he won by more than 2 lengths again last start. From the barrier I'd expect them to try and lead or at least sit handy up on speed. Happy to take $5 here. The one to keep an eye on is SHOTGUN STRUTTER who returned from a spell with a 6 length win over 800m. That margin over that distance is impressive enough in itself, and the horse he beat then came out and won its next start by 2L. He should just jump and run from barrier 5, and while this is much harder than last start, he looks good enough to measure up. The value is BLACK MINK at $18. This horse bolted in first up at Eagle Farm on the Heavy surface, winning by over 4 lengths. He failed last start but the trainer reported he resented the firm surface so he should really appreciate the Soft/Heavy track that we'll be racing on here. The claim brings him down to 53kg, but he will need a good ride and some luck from barrier 14. $18 looks a big price, though.

Tip: Initialize / Black Mink EW

Race 5

SUNDANCE looks a terrific chance here first up from a spell with two trials under the belt for the Lloyd/Edmonds combination. He bolted in by 3 lengths first up last prep against the older horses and his record at the distance is good. From the barrier he should either lead or box seat, and he's won on Soft ground before so no worries there. Looks a great chance at $4.40. I'm terrified of SIR DONALD who has won both starts this prep and has a cracking record at the track and distance. The slight query is the 3kg apprentice but the weight brings him right into calculations here. TIYATROLANI drops back in grade and draws barrier 1 which also brings her right into things, while RAJA AMPAT returned with a good win and with 52.5kg a win wouldn't surprise.

Tip: Sundance (Best Bet)
 

Race 6

All the money has been for ALLZIN here but he won't be getting a cent of mine. I'm taking him on based on the fact he's had 7 starts on Soft ground for 0 placings. He's been racing in great form but that stat is particularly concerning, and from barrier 17 he won't be able to box seat and get the run of the race like he has recently. I'll be backing HOT MONEY who is only lightly raced but is showing potential with two wins at the Gold Coast in his last two starts. They've both been over 1800m and while he failed over 2000m three starts back, he had to do plenty of work to find the lead that day. Corey Brown is a noticeable jockey booking and with 54kg on his back he can win this. The value could be WAR BABY at $18. He was beaten 5 lengths by Allzin last start but his wet track form is significantly better, especially if it gets to Heavy.

Tip: Hot Money / War Baby EW

Race 7

Competitive line up for the Ipswich Cup. Going to tip a roughie here in SELF SENSE. His form looks particularly average, but all his runs have been on Good track. His wet form is significantly better. He's placed in 7 of his 10 runs on Soft ground and in 4 of his 5 runs on Heavy ground. Drops from a strong form race and I think we'll see a sharp form turnaround. Four of the last five winners of this race have carried 54kg or 54.5kg so at $10 he's a good betting option. SORT AFTER is another that carries that weight and her form in Adelaide has been good leading into this. She'll go straight to the front and be tough to run down. JUMBO PRINCE and BENZINI are the class runners but they have all the weight to carry. You can go back as far as you want through the history books and it will take you a fair while to find a winner that's carried more than 56.5kg to victory in this race, so I'll be taking on both. No surprises to see a blowout result here.

Tip: Self Sense EW 

Race 8

Pretty happy to be backing THE VIRGINIAN here on the wet track. First up he won convincingly at Eagle Farm on the heavy track before running 4th last start on the good surface. He's never placed 2nd up from three starts, but he has won his only start when 3rd up from a spell so I think he comes into this ticking plenty of boxes. Happy to take $6. ACATOUR is the one I'm wary of first up with Jeff Lloyd riding for the Snowdens. He's won two from three when 1st up from a spell and has won on both Soft and Heavy ground, but it took him until his third run last prep to find his best and that was over 1600m. PERFECT DARE was very good in Group 2 company last start but hates wet ground so I'll be taking him on. MONSIEUR GUSTAVE could eb the value second up from a spell on wet ground.

Tip: The Virginian

Race 9

Another tough race to end the card but there's three I like and two of them are the Godolphin horses. KINSACHI comes right into this with the drop back in grade and particularly the wet track. She's placed in all three starts on Soft ground and has never finished outside the top 2 from three starts on Heavy ground. Draws well and although she's got the weight to carry, she has the draw to overcome it. MATERNAL has a terrific record at the distance with 4 wins from 5 starts. She's also never missed a place on Soft ground from five starts, which includes three wins. If she had drawn a better gate I'd be very keen on her but barrier 18 makes things tough. The value in the race is DEE NINE ELLE who comes right into things if the track is Heavy. Drawn well and can win at $9.

Tip: Kinsachi / Dee Nine Elle EW