There are some quality mid-week races being held today at Caulfield. The Horse has covered a few of the better bets on the program, while he has found one at Wyong also worth following.
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Horse Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 16th
Caulfield Race 1
There looks to be a couple of previously-unlucky maiden runners that find their race today at Caulfield—and none more so than the favourite here (7) Ord. The Dabernig/Hayes runner has placed in all three starts, improving each time. Last time the Written Tycoon gelding went around at Sandown over 1200 metres where he found one better. That day he was the favourite and we took him on, subsequently tipping the winner Rare Hare at solid odds (not to boast). Today, he looks to have found the right race. The eight horse field should allow McNeil to comfortably gain a leading position, where the threats are likely to be (8) Astro Ruby, who comes into this on the back of two second places (in what appears to have been weaker company). Interested in the Price/Kent runner (3) Bury Road but want to see him go around once before diving in. The stable seems to get their runners to come into form quickly after a couple of starts, which brings me to the stable-mate (9) Golden Loop who looks to be the overs. The Snitzel filly placed third after boxing-on in a 1300 metre race at Wangaratta. Today she gets the form jockey on-board in Jamie Kah, is sure to have taken fitness from the last start, and is a knock-out hope at $34. She is one for the exotics and maybe a side-peanut.
Value: (9) Golden Loop $34
Caulfield Race 2
Another one of the unlucky maidens who can atone today is (4) Real Gun. The Reward For Effort gelding has placed three times in as many starts. His last run was arguably the best, beaten to line by Sayumi. He continues to improve and John Allen stays on-board. He gets a wider draw but with the smallish field Allen should take luck out of the equation and place him up alongside the pace—which is most likely going to be set by Craig Williams on (3) Johnny Angel. He has similarly placed in both starts this preparation. A second to Cornerpocket looks good enough form to be competitive here. The other one in contention, and also likely to be setting some speed, is (1) Angerstein.
Caulfield Race 3
Admittedly, there hasn’t been a lot of value in the first two races—and that is set to continue in the third. (5) Winsum closed like a good horse last start coming from back in the field to essentially brain them. The runner up was 2 lengths behind the Wanjini colt, while the third runner was over 6 lengths away. It was a small field, but the win was dominant enough to progress here to a CL1 over 1200 metres and maintain the form. Craig Williams sticks, which is good enough for me. He does meet some tougher competition today, including (2) Platini to be steered by Jamie Kah. He has performed well in bm64 graded races, and will find this easier. Looks to do his best work second-up, and over a touch further, so he will be coming-on from this start, where he lugs the 61.5 kg. Keen to follow him into his next start. (1) Confidant cannot be overlooked while you would assume Oliver will give (9) Impecunious every opportunity.
Caulfield Race 7
There is some value to be found in the last at Caulfield. Keen to take on the favourite (2) Witchfulthinking despite her winning form. She steps up in grade to bm70 after wins at bm58 and bm64, and this is pretty decent company today, so it is going to be clearly a challenge to take that next step. Another one with winning form is (10) Lady D’oro who looks to get a nice inside draw where she can set the speed. At double the price of the favourite, she looks everywhere as likely. (12) Tragic looks to be in with a solid chance also, while (9) Tea Tales looks overs currently around $31.
The one that looks most appealing is the Price/Kent runner (5) Quantum Mechanic. The mare has had 11 starts with 2 wins and 5 places (and raced in much better company). She is first-up today (never won, but has placed and raced well) and gets the services of Jamie Kah. She is pretty consistent and handles any condition, and looking across this field, she looks to simply be the best horse in the race. She placed second to Cordilla to end last preparation. The first-up run is the query, but at the odds she looks a good each-way punt.
Each-Way
(4) Quantum Mechanic
$7.50
Wyong Race 3
Nice little Stakes race mid-week here with a number of quality stables with competitive runners. (5) Barbaric deserves favouritism for the Snowden stable after 3 starts for 2 wins. One of which was the Group 3 Black Opal Stakes in Canberra. He has had a long break (283 days) but the stable would not be coming here if they didn’t think he was ready to win. The draw is a little sticky, with the two inside runners likely to kick through and lead, leaving him boxed in behind the main field. It is a small enough field for the poor position to be overcome in the closing stages, but James McDonald will need to be at his best. The Soft track (Heavy?) should be no problem, with all three previous runs on the Soft going. Top selection.
Another one who likes the wet is (3) Spaceboy, arguably the next best horse in the field. The short back-up from Saturday adds an extra dynamic. However the track conditions will be to his advantage, so we expect him to run, despite a poor showing prior. His form until then has super consistent (18s 4w 10p). Watch for market support—might be worth a saver in the deteriorating conditions (staking 4 to 1).
Yao Dash will have supporters, and despite racing up to Group 1 level, he has not won above bm72 grade, so this could again prove a tough task.
Value: (3) Spaceboy $4.60
