Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Happy Valley in Hong Kong on Wednesday, March 27th.
We have an eight-race card and overall, it looks a very competitive night of racing. There looks to be a bit of value around and we've picked out five races below that we're keen to bet into.
HAPPY VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Helene Charisma
Best Value: Race 1 Fine With Me
RACE 1
This is a really competitive start to the meeting and there's already been money for both Purton and Moreira's mounts. I'm going to take both of them on and back two others in the race. My main bet will be Fine With Me each way at $8.50. I think that's a really solid price. He's done all his recent racing at Sha Tin and comes into this off a narrow defeat, where he ran home in the quickest final 400m of the race over 1400m and was beaten a nose. In fact, he was the only horse in that race to break 23 seconds for the final sectional. He's got two wins to his name at this track and distance, with the most recent of those coming in October last year. A big plus for him here is the barrier draw. Barrier 6 is the most successful barrier over this track and distance on the C+3 course, with 12 winners from 62 starters. Hopefully Jack Wong can ride him well because the writing is on the wall for him to go close here. Funnily enough, when he won here in October, he defeated Lucky Shiny Day, who he meets again tonight. Lucky Shiny Day has just struggled to win one but has continued to race consistently well recently and comes into tonight's race on the back of two 2nd placings. While barrier 9 seems awkward, it's actually the second-most successful barrier at this track and distance on the C+3 course, with 9 winners from 62 starters. He's at $5.50 and worth a bet too.
Also backing: Lucky Shiny Day $5.50
RACE 2
It's hard to be confident about a horse with one win in 24 career starts but I'll be having something on Mister Monte here. I reckon they've set him to win tonight and the booking of Zac Purton for Michael Chang suggests as much. Purton has had just eight rides for Chang this season, resulting in three winners and two 2nd placings. The horse has had four starts back from a spell this prep. He dropped to Class 4 two starts ago and was beaten 2.8L, and I reckon he could have finished closer last start but the early work told late in the race. His ony career win came at this track and distance and that was in Class 3 company, so he's definitely capable of winning off this mark in Class 4 tonight. Purton on, good draw and gets his chance to win another race.
RACE 3
This is a bit of a mucky race but I'll stick with Gift Of Lifeline, who broke through for his first win last start over this track and distance. He ran well prior to that over the 1000m here, so he appears to be going well and with just four starts under the belt, should still be open to plenty of improvement. Goes up in weight tonight and Teetan takes over from Silvestre De Sousa, but he looks well-placed again. He starts from barrier 9, which is the equal second-most successful barrier over this track and distance on the C+3 course, behind barrier 1. Old Havana terrifies me on his HK debut for Fownes/Purton.
RACE 5
Another race which is a little bit mucky but it was hard not to be impressed with Helene Charisma last start. He scored comfortably over 1800m here, which was actually his first ever win in Hong Kong, having arrived as a Group 1 winner in France! urton rode his stablemate Happy Dragon to victory last start too, but John Moore didn't even give him the choice of which horse to stick with - he made the choice for him and it's Helene Charisma who got the nod. Moore was also very bullish that he was the best chance of his three runners in the race. He rises in weight tonight but he's drawn softly and the rise in distance won't be a problem at all. He can win again.
RACE 7
I found it hard to lock in on one horse here, so there's three I'll be backing. My main bet will be on Little Bird ($3.80) and I'll also be having something on Baltic Whisper ($8.50) and Moment Of Power ($9.00). Little Bird was a dominant last-start winner at this track and distance. Zac Purton has ridden the horse twice for two wins, with the margins being 3.8L and 2L. He just used his race fitness to his advantage last start, sitting outside the leader on a hot speed and running them into the ground. There's a little query whether he'll be involved in another speed battle tonight with a few other go-forward horses, and also whether he can be as effective staying at 1000m tonight. He has had five weeks off since that win though, so he should be nice and fresh. He rises back up in class slightly but even so, he couldn't have been more dominant last start and he's drawn for a soft run tonight. Purton seems to get the best out of him and it's interesting that he sticks with him, despite riding Music Addition in a recent trial. Moment Of Power is a very speedy little horse who will jump and run. He's got a great record at the track and distance, with six wins and four 2nd placings from 16 starts. Barrier 3 is the equal-most successful barrier over the 1000m on the C+3 course and he gets in with just 52kg after the apprentice claim. He'll either run 1st, 2nd or last. Baltic Whisper draws barrier 1, which is a big advantage. He's trialled well leading into this after finishing last when he last raced. The big query with him is, we've seen him trial like that on a number of occasions but he never seems to reproduce it on race day. I'll just be backing him as insurance because the inside barrier really does make a big difference. Betting strategy for the race - main bet Little Bird, good result Moment Of Power, money back Baltic Whisper. I.e. For a $50 stake - $32 Little Bird $3.80; $12 Moment Of Power $8.50; $6 Baltic Whisper $9.00. Then cross your fingers and pray!
Value: Moment Of Power $8.50
