Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap, JJ Atkins & Queensland Derby Previews & Betting Tips

Doomben hosts three Group 1 races this Saturday 9 June, on a blockbuster day of racing in Australia. We’ve previewed the Stradbroke Handicap, JJ Atkins and Queensland Derby below! It’s worth noting that the Doomben track is likely to be in the heavy range.

Make sure to tune into Episode 38 of the Before You Bet Podcast below, as Tim discusses all three Group 1's in detail and gives his best bets for Flemington, Randwick and Belmont! 

Stradbroke Handicap Day Betting Tips

Doomben Race 5 – Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap – 1350m

TRENDS

The last horse to win carrying more than 55.5kg in weight in the Stradbroke was Rough Habit back in 1992! The past six winners have all been weighted between 52.5kg and 55kg and their starting prices were $21, $11, $12, $31, $26 and $31. Four of the past five winners have started from double-digit barriers and with a bottomless track predicted at this stage of the day, it could pay to be well off the fence.

KEY CHANCES

(1) Impending is flying this preparation with two wins from three starts, including a last-start victory in the G1 Kingsford-Smith Cup. He is one of only a handful of elite Group 1 sprinters in this field, but with the conditions of the race and the conditions of the track, he will struggle to win here, in my opinion. Carrying 2kg more than anything else in the field is a tough ask and history suggests it’s borderline impossible. He’s far from proven on heavy ground so despite backing him last start, I’ll be looking elsewhere today.

Fellow last-start Group 1 winner (2) Santa Ana Lane looks particularly well placed here and is another one that’s returned in outstanding form this preparation. His victory in the Goodwood in Adelaide last start was pretty soft in the end and 55.5kg is a weight which will give him his chance to win. The glaring concern is that his only start on heavy ground resulted in him finishing last. That was a year ago, so there’s the chance that he’s a more mature horse this prep and therefore a better chance of handling the track, but it’s hard to be sure.

Darren Weir’s (5) Voodoo Lad appeared to be just plain in the Goodwood first up but it’s a race that is notoriously hard to win fresh and Weir said the horse was ridden a touch too close from barrier 1. Barrier 7 here will allow them to ride him quiet and he’s always been a horse capable of winning a race like this under the right circumstances. Has won on heavy ground before and at $26 is a decent chance of causing an upset.

Another horse capable of causing an upset could be (9) The Monstar at $34. He saluted in Group 2 company at the Sunshine Coast last week and comes into this on the quick back-up. He’s a horse that goes much better on wet ground with 18 starts for nine wins and five placings when the track is soft or heavy. He’s got a good third up record and with the light weight could run a very big race. He’s seven years old now and you have to go back to 2005 to find the last 7YO winner of the race, but that winner also carried 53kg, so The Monstar profiles fairly similarly in that regard.

Another horse that loves the wet is (12) Burning Passion, who has won four of his six starts on heavy ground. He was only 2L off Impending last start in the Doomben 10,000 and today gets a 5.5kg weight swing in his favour and the all-important wet track he needs to win this. Certainly not hopeless at $34.

I do think the horse they all have to beat is (18) Osbourne Bulls, but he’s obviously sweating on a run as the second emergency. I think we’ll see (10) Shillelagh scratched if the track is a Heavy 8 in the morning, but Osbourne Bulls will need an extra scratching if he’s to gain a run. He’s won seven of his 10 starts and comes off an impressive win at Scone last start. This is a big step up in class but he looks every bit a Group 1 horse and will carry just 51.5kg here. Kerrin McEvoy is locked in for the ride from barrier 4 and the only query is the heavy track, but he’s bred to swim and has won both starts on soft ground previously. I’d certainly be taking the $9 if he managed to get a run.

I’ll be taking on (15) Perast and (16) Champagne Cuddles. The latter my not be entirely suited by barrier 1 and seems short enough in the market at $4.60, especially given the recent record of favourites in this race! I also can’t understand how (17) Danon Liberty is so short in the market. If he gets a run, he’ll be first up in Australia, racing over a tri likely short of his best and on a bottomless track. Leave me out.

SELECTIONS

I’ll be backing (18) Osbourne Bulls at $9 if he gets a run, with small bets on (5) Voodoo Lad ($26), (9) The Monstar ($34) and (12) Burning Passion ($34). Saver on (2) Santa Ana Lane at $14. (I.e. $100 betting bank - $50 Osbourne Bulls, $10 on the other four runners).

1^st (18) OSBOURNE BULLS
2^nd (5) VOODOO LAD
3^rd (12) BURNING PASSION
4^th (9) THE MONSTAR

Doomben Race 6 – Group 1 JJ Atkins – 1600m

TRENDS

The boys have had the wood over the girls in recent years with the past six winners all being male. The market generally has it about right – of the past five winners, two were favourites, two were second favourite and last year’s anomaly was a blowout at $21. I’d suggest a wide draw is better than an inside draw here due to the expected track conditions.

KEY CHANCES

Waller looks to have a mortgage on the race with three of the top four runners in the market.

The only query with the favourite (5) The Autumn Sun is whether he will handle the heavy ground. He’s won both starts to date and has been impressive on both occasions. The mile looks ideal for him – he’s been finishing his races off very strongly and if he handles the wet ground, he’ll be very hard to beat here. Drawn ideally in barrier 6 which should allow McEvoy to pull him to the outside. I think $2.50 is short enough given those concerns, but he’s clearly the one to beat.

Of his stablemates, I think (2) Zousain is the one that may pose the biggest threat. He bolted in two starts ago over 1200m on soft ground and was left without cover in the lead last start, when only run down late. He’s a much better horse ridden off the speed and that’s what they will do from barrier 14. He’ll be giving The Autumn Sun a start but I think he’ll end up in the best part of the track and is certainly a good chance of winning. The $8.50 available is a good price and I’d much rather take that than the odds available for (1) Lean Mean Machine ($5.50).

The value in the race and the forgotten horse could be (4) Sesar, who smoked Lean Mean Machine two starts ago at the Gold Coast. He was a bit keen last start when only managing to finish 5^th behind that same horse, but if he settles a bit better today I think he has the ability to motor home over the top of them. $15 is a big price.

(11) Fundamentalist has been putting the writing on the wall over in Adelaide in recent starts, charging home from the back of the field. She’s been the best backed runner in early markets and is from the right stable to give this a good shake. She looks like she’ll eat up the mile and she gets a big jockey change with Craig Williams taking over from Andrew Mallyon. She’s already won on wet ground previously and isn’t without claims here.

SELECTIONS

I’ll be backing the favourite (5) The Autumn Sun at $2.50 with something small on (2) Zousain at $8.50 and (4) Sesar at $15 (i.e. $100 betting strategy - $70 The Autumn Sun, $20 Zousain and $10 Sesar).

1^st (5) THE AUTUMN SUN
2^nd (2) ZOUSAIN
3^rd (4) SESAR
4^th (11) FUNDAMENTALIST

Doomben Race 7 – Queensland Derby – 2200m

TRENDS

The market is generally a pretty good indicator for this race. The longest priced winners in the past 30 years were Sonntag (2014) and Magicool (2015), both at $13. In those 30 years, 13 favourites have saluted, with a further 12 winners starting single-figure odds. Just five fillies have won this race in the past 30 years, but none since 2010. In the past six years, three winners have come out of the G3 Grand Prix Stakes and two have had their lead up in the SA Derby.

KEY CHANCES

Wide open race but despite the wide barrier I’ve got (11) Lucky For All on top here. He should be undefeated for Darren Weir but was a tragedy beaten last start when going to the line under a stranglehold at Sandown. Prior to that he couldn’t have been more impressive when trotting in by 3L at Caulfield. I suspect he’ll handle the ground no problems. The only two queries are the wide barrier and the fact he didn’t have a hard run at all last start. This could be a fairly hard-run 2200m, so a soft track gallop last start isn’t very helpful. However, he’s trained by Weir who I’m sure will have him spot on, and by this stage of the day barrier 19 is probably better than barrier 1.

Weir’s other chance in the race is (2) Heavenly Thought, who starts from the inside gate here. He was the winner of the G3 Grand Prix Stakes last start, which has proven to be the best form reference for this race in recent years. From the inside gate, he should enjoy a nice run, but whether that’s the right part of the track to be in come Race 8 is questionable.

(1) Red Dream was beaten as the $1.75 favourite last start in that race won by Heavenly Thought. His form prior to that was particularly good. His first up run on heavy ground was encouraging so the ground shouldn’t pose a problem and from barrier 6 he looks to get a very good run in the race. I’m happy to forgive him for the underwhelming run last time out and judge him on his displays leading into that. If he reproduces those, he’ll be right in the finish.

(7) Live And Free brings a completely different formline having won his past two starts in Sydney. This is obviously much tougher than what he’s been facing and he’s untested on any sort of wet track, so his price seems about as short as you’d want, but his recent wins have been impressive.

The Queensland Oaks winner, (16) Youngstar, takes her place here but looks up against it from barrier 21. The fillies don’t have a good record in this race and I just wonder if the gut-buster she had in the Oaks may find her a bit vulnerable here.

(9) Won Won Too could be a blowout chance at $71. His win three starts ago over 2400m was on soft ground and he was in contention in the SA Derby until late in the race when he got a bit tired. (5) Rezealient and (12) Merovee are other longshots.

SELECTIONS

$6 seems a decent each way bet about (11) Lucky For All here. I’m not very keen to bet in the race but I’d be keeping it simple with an each way bet on him, along with a trifecta of sorts. Interestingly, all the market support early has been for his stablemate (2) Heavenly Thought.

1^st (11) LUCKY FOR ALL
2^nd (1) RED DREAM
3^rd (2) HEAVENLY THOUGHT
4^th (9) WON WON TOO