Saturday evening will see the Western Bulldogs playing for their season against the Geelong Cats, who failed to back up their 2022 Premiership with a finals appearance in 2023.
Although all punters and fans alike would have much preferred the prospect of both teams fighting it out for a top-8 spot, which is what we hoped for looking at this game before last week’s results, we are now staring at a Cats line-up that has no lives left, leaving it up to the Western Bulldogs to lose this match, which in fact they did last week against West Coast.
We bring you our full AFL betting preview and value Same Game Multi below!
AFL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 7:25pm AEST, August 26th, GMHBA Stadium
With that being said, this game is still jam-packed with excitement with a closet full of ghosts for the Western Bulldogs to either overcome or run away from. Firstly, what went wrong for the Bulldogs last week? There has of course been a real backlash in the media about the position of former premiership winning coach Luke Beveridge after saying that the whole locker room was nervous in his pre-game interview. If the Dogs were on edge before last week’s game, how are they going to be feeling warming up for this do or die match against Geelong? The next demon flying out is the Western Bulldogs record against Geelong, which could be the ugliest of them all. The Cats haven't lost to the Bulldogs in five-straight games, most recently winning 15.7(97) - 10.15(75), in round 12, this year. The further you go back the scarier the record gets for the Bulldogs who have lost 8 of their last 10 and 16 of their last 20 against Geelong. Then you can dive into the fact that they haven’t won in 11 games at Kardinia Park, now known as GMHBA Stadium.
But that’s not all folks, while we are on the topic of GMHBA Stadium, Geelong have won 6 of their 8 games there in 2023. With Geelong’s two home games at the MCG and one at Adelaide oval, plus their 8 games at Kardinia Park, they have some scary numbers as the home team in 2023. The Cats are scoring an average of 105 points against their opponents while conceding just 70, with an average margin of victory of 52 points. It is really starting to pile up.
So, when does this one-sided affair get flipped on its head? Right here. Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan and Mark Blicavs are all going in for surgery this week after the Cats are officially out of the finals race. While Esava Ratugolea and Tom Hawkins pulled up with hamstring strains last week and Brad Close suffered an ankle injury in Geelong’s loss to St Kilda and will not take the field in round 24.
Geelong have also only won 1-game in their last 5 starts, and are scoring 17 points less during that same period, kicking an average of just 74 points per game, while conceding 83 points, which is 4 points more than their 2023 average. On the other side, the Bulldogs have tilted their averages for the positive, despite only winning 2 of their last 5. They are scoring at an average of 87 points per game in their last 5 and conceding just 71 points on average, with both totals moving 5 points each in the right direction compared to their 2023 averages.
So where does this lead us? I am taking the Western Bulldogs Moneyline, not giving a single point to Geelong. I am fairly certain that the Bulldogs will not throw away another chance to make the finals and put pressure on GWS to win the final match of the round on Sunday, however I do not dare take a stab at the margin.
Western Bulldogs to Win
$1.70 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Western Bulldogs to Win – As stated above, the safe bet in the multi is a straight-up win for the Bulldogs.
Oliver Henry 2+ Goals – With all of the outs for Geelong it will now be up to Henry to be one of, if not the main target for Geelong. The Cats forward has kicked at least 2 goals in 3 of his last 4 matches.
Patrick Dangerfield OVER 20.5 Disposals – How I see it, if Geelong are to put up a fight it is going to be a veteran of Dangerfield’s calibre that will get the ball moving for the Cats. The 33-year-old is still averaging 20.6 touches per game in 2023 and has had at least 20 disposals in 2 of his last 3 games.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at Bet365
