Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill and Flemington on Saturday, May 5th.
Instead of covering both meetings in their entirety, we’ve selected the races we’re most confident to bet into and combined them into one preview.
At Flemington we’ll be on a Good 4 with the rail I the True position, while at Rosehill we’re on a Soft 5 at present, with the rail also in the True position.
Be sure to check out our Morphettville preview and tips here, and tune in to Episode 33 of the Before You Bet Podcast below!
BEST BETS
Best Bet: Flemington Race 7 #8 Land Of Plenty
Next Best Bet: Rosehill Race 9 #6 Bon Amis
Best Value: Flemington Race 5 #6 Proud Wolf / #8 Our Gladiator
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
RACE 4
Two I’ll be backing here. (2) Connery has won his past two starts after teasing punters a few times. Hopefully with some confidence derived he can continue on his winning ways, and he certainly gets his chance here with a beautiful barrier draw and a nice claim for Ethan Brown. Looks like he’ll be very competitive again at $5.50. (3) Ancient Echoes was given a poor ride last start when caught three-wide without cover for the whole race. Prior to that he won his first two starts of the prep by a combined 7L. With a better run in transit today he can definitely bounce back at $6.
TIP: (2) Connery / (3) Ancient Echoes
RACE 5
Three that I’m mainly interested in today. (3) Malibu Style certainly gets his chance to win another Melbourne race today but I prefer backing this horse when he’s around double figures and not the $3 favourite! He ran well to be beaten 0.8L behind Sprightly Lass last start, which is good enough form to win. No reason he can’t, but I’ll just be saving on him at that price. (6) Proud Wolf is first up here with just 51kg on its back. Has a good first up record with two wins and two placings from six starts and has won its only start at this distance. First go down the straight is some query and the horse prefers a wet track but at $12 he’s worth having something on. (8) Our Gladiator is another at good odds worth backing. He’s been going super this prep and was given a tough time over in Adelaide last start when caught three-wide without cover on the speed. Before that he was flying back here in Melbourne and with only 52kg on his back he should jump straight to the front and give them all something to catch at $8.50.
TIP: (6) Proud Wolf / (8) Our Gladiator
RACE 6
One of the best bets on the card at Flemington here with (3) Galaxy Raider, who is a horse I’ve kept well away from given his poor winning strike rate, but his last-start win at Sandown was terrific and now that he’s got his head in front for once, I’m happy to back him. He carries weight again today but did win last start with 61kg on his back and the big field should ensure there’s speed on up front, which he’ll need. $4.20 is a reasonable price. There’s a few other chances but he’s the clear standout in the race for mine.
TIP: (3) Galaxy Raider
RACE 7
The best bet of the day at Flemington for me is (8) Land Of Plenty, who bolted in two starts ago before a luckless run last start when 3rd, beaten 0.4L at Caulfield. I love the booking of Daniel Moor here and from barrier 7 he should settle back in the field with cover. He’ll have plenty of time to work into the race with the long straight at Flemington. He’ll be very hard to hold out. $2.25.
TIP: (8) Land Of Plenty
RACE 8
(5) Magic Consol is going well and won nicely last start but I’m going to bet around him here and back two others at $6.50 and $6 respectively. (3) Turnitaround ran a blinder first up, as he always tends to do, before a flat run second up last start. He’s third up today and his record suggests he should be right in this. He’s had seven runs when third up, for three wins and two placings. Draws well and can go close. (4) Second Bullet isn’t a horse I’m fond of but I feel like if you’re going to back him, it almost has to be first up, which he is today. He’s got a good record at this distance and has placed on both occasions over this track and distance. Drawn soft, trialled well and rates highly.
TIP: (3) Turnitaround / (4) Second Bullet
RACE 9
Looks to be four or five chances in this but there’s two that stand out from the rest. (1) Iconoclasm goes on top. He’s a smart horse. He’s won three races this prep, including last start, which followed a big run at Caulfield when he was simply outdone by the barrier. He sat wide without cover last start and was still too tough for them. That was over this track and distance so there’s no reason he can’t win again today with an easier run. He’s at $2.70. His biggest danger looks to be (13) Moana Jewel, who is a $7 chance at the moment, but I’d expect her to start shorter than that post-9am market moves. She was luckless on debut, then resumed with a win two starts ago and had no luck last start, but still charged home to be beaten a nose by the smart Platinum Angel. Barrier 1 isn’t necessarily ideal but she’ll give this a very good shake.
TIP: (1) Iconoclasm / (13) Moana Jewel EW
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
RACE 1
Looks a nice race for (2) Roosevelt at $2. She’s already been backed in from $4 and will start around $1.80. She won on debut back in March and has since been back to the trials on two occasions. Draws well in barrier 3 and the race looks very winnable for her. (1) Gem Song is her realistic danger after winning on debut. He was scratched from a race on Wednesday in order to run here instead.
TIP: (2) Roosevelt
RACE 2
Like the look of (3) Star Sensation first up from a spell here. She was good in her first prep, winning two of her five races. She’s had three trials in preparation for today, winning the first two of them before a quiet trial last time out. I like this stable and I’ve got some serious questions over the two Godolphin runners at the top of the market, so I’ll be taking the $3.70 about Star Sensation.
TIP: (3) Star Sensation
RACE 4
Ken to back (7) Zonk first up from a spell here. She’s got a great fresh record with two wins and a 2nd from three starts and from barrier 1 she should push forward to lead this field. She’s won her only start on soft ground and I think there’s a few holes in some of the form of this race. I’d be surprised if either of the Waller runners was ready to win this first up (market will tell us), while (6) She Knows comes through possibly the weakest Highway race in recent memory. That leaves me happy to have a decent crack at the $3.40 available for Zonk.
TIP: (7) Zonk
RACE 6
I was originally keen to avoid this race but upon further analysis I think a small each way bet on (3) Maurus isn’t the worst option at $17/$3.50. The key will be the track condition – hopefully it is still soft come race time. This horse just seems to go particularly well at this track, with one win and three 2nds from four starts at Rosehill. Just two starts ago he ran a blinder over this track and distance and with his preferred soft ground today, he can reproduce a similar performance, which will see him give this a good shake. He should have won fourth up last preparation too.
TIP: (3) Maurus EW
RACE 9
Hopefully end the day on a high here with (6) Bon Amis who was simply huge in the Provincial Championship Final last start. While I normally avoid that Highway/Country/Provincial form in city races such as this, I have a good opinion of the winner (Serene Miss) and this horse goes well too. In that race, he was four-wide without cover the entire trip, loomed up to win at the 200m and then just faded, understandably, to be beaten 2.5L. Draws softly today in barrier 5 and Jason Collett is a great jockey booking. There’s a few myths in this field so if he’s not cooked from that gutbuster he’ll be very hard to beat. Locking in $2.85.
TIP: (6) Bon Amis
