Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for a quality midweek card at Flemington on Wednesday, September 27th.
Today’s card is important as we head towards the Spring features as it’s headlined by the Oaks trial (R6) and Derby trial (R7) for the three-year-old’s.
We’re racing on a Good 4 surface as it stands, and we have betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also check out our Rosehill Racing Preview & Tips here!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Anchor Bid
Best Value: Race 4 Atomic Charge
Race 1
Nice race to kick things off. It really does look a very nice race for VIOLATE, who ran 4th in the Group 1 Queensland Derby at the end of last prep. He resumed with a flashing 4th first up behind Mr Sneaky and Theanswermyfriend, which is a very hot form line for a midweek race. Last start he was caught four-wide without cover in Listed company behind Theanswermyfriend again, but will have no such issue today from the good draw. Up to 1600m third up now with a nice 1.5kg claim, looks an ideal race for him. My concern is he’s a winner of just one race from 16 starts, has never placed from three runs at the track, and 1600m may still be short of his best. I’m leaning towards taking him on. SILVERA was an impressive winner upon his return to racing in Adelaide. He came from last before charging home to win comfortably over 1400m. Steps up to 1600m here second up, and although he’s also unplaced from two starts at Flemington, he’s had excuses in both runs (one was in the VRC Derby at $51, the other he was first up in G3 company at $61). Jamie Kah flies over for the ride, he’s got a good second up record and I’d expect him to go close today. All three wins have been on soft ground, that’s the slight query. CARRAIG AONAIR continues to race through the grades. Beat a handy one in Positively High two starts ago before running 2nd to Pablo’s Express last start. Back to 1600m and down in weight, drawn well for Yendall and Hayes/Dabernig wouldn’t be sending him here without him being a winning chance. The value is STONE WARRIOR who returned with a nice win first up at Sandown. His second up record isn’t as good, but he’s another one with reasons for that. Up to 1600m suits, drawn well and he’s always shown he’s got the talent to go well in races like this. Keen on an each-way bet at $7. Taking on Violate
TIP: Carraig Aonair / Stone Warrior EW
Race 2
Wide open race and just about anything could win this without surprising given most horses are fairly unexposed. With that said, I’m with the favourite RESERVE STREET who was put way after winning his debut at Pakenham synthetic despite being held up at a crucial point in the straight. When he got clear he really hit the line strongly to win, and the rise in trip here is only going to help. He’s had seven weeks since that run, but the early money suggests he’s ready to go here as he’s been about $13 into $4.40. Really interested in this Snowden runner CONQUEST at double figure odds. He came out of a good form race on debut before winning his maiden in easy enough fashion at his second start. He jumped sharply in class last start to contest a Listed race behind Royal Symphony but had no luck in the run. Back to a winnable midweek race now and it would be criminal to exclude a Snowden runner in a Melbourne race. Another couple at good odds to include are BOWERMAN and SUPLEX CITY. Bowerman can be forgiven after tiring late on the heavy track last start. Well drawn and back on firm ground here, he’s always shown he’s got the ability to compete in good race. Suplex City was a big run on debut and will improve with the step up in trip. Include both at $15. SNITZEPEG is fit now and expect him to be very competitive.
TIP: Reserve Street / Conquest EW
Race 3
Think this is an okay betting race. FALIKA looks a good each way bet at $4.60/$1.95 an I’d be pretty confident playing 1x3 here on the win/place line here. She resumed with a good run behind Swampland and Samovare over 1400m at Caulfield without getting much room in the straight, and followed that up with a good run at Mornington when running home strongly from last to just miss by a nose. Gets up to 1800m now which should suit given she won by 7L over 2080m in January before running 2nd at Caulfield over 2000m. I actually think they will go forward from barrier 11 to sit right up on speed and Mark Zahra is in rich form. She’ll go close. GOLD BLUSH is the one she has to beat. Improved out of sight at her third run back from a spell (as Weir runners tend to do when they hit peak fitness) to win by 3.5L at Geelong. That was on a heavy track but she’s undefeated on good ground so that’s no issue. Draws wide so she’ll have to come from near last, but once these mares are fit and in winning form for Weir, they tend to keep that form going. BONUS D’ORO can bounce back from her last-start failure as odds-on favourite, but keep an eye on the market with her. NIMINYPIMINY will be thereabouts but struggles to win and has never won from 19 starts on good ground.
TIP: Falika
Race 4
Tricky race. OSCIETRA returns to the races since her maiden win at Geelong synthetic. The time of the race was slow and the opposition wasn’t flash, so it’s no surprise to see she’s $2.40 out to $3.70 in the betting. I’d love to take her on, but she’s at a more reasonable price now, though still short. Her form line behind Limestone and Miss Wahoo remains strong, and the fact she’s had a race down the straight gives her an edge. Hayes set her for this race immediately after her maiden win, so that tells me she’ll be ready to win here. I think she’s a big chance, but not sure if she’s backable. DIVIJNE MESSENGER was run down late at Mornington after leading into a strong headwind. She started $6 on debut in G3 company in Sydney, so with natural improvement from her first up run I expect her to be hard to beat here. FAITH IN HAND has had a stable change from Henry Dwyer to Chris Waller, and Waller’s Melbourne stable is going nicely. She brings some strong form here and the wide draw could be beneficial down the straight. Keeping her very safe. I think two to include at big odds are LADY CARTIER and ATOMIC CHARGE. Lady Cartier ($19) was caught four-wide on debut as favourite when finishing 3rd behind EXTREME BLISS. On to firm ground here I expect sharp improvement. Atomic Charge ($31) worked home strongly on debut behind The Queen’s Reward and Divine Messenger to be beaten 1.8L. Thought she finished off nicely and once again, getting on to a firm track could see her improve sharply. Damian Lane retains the ride from the good draw and the stable is flying. Keen. Hard race to bet into so something small the two horses mentioned at big odds.
TIP: Lady Cartier EW / Atomic Charge EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Four I’d like to mention here in a good betting race. TAHI is clearly the horse to beat and is around the right price at $2.90. Bolted in to win his maiden in June by over 3L, which was over 1240m at Geelong. Then went straight to town and dropped back to the 1100m straight when finishing 2nd to Hay Bale. The query here is him tackling 1400m for the first time having not had a run for nine weeks. But he draws well and gets a handy claim for Taylor Marshall so all things being equal he should be going very close. MANDALAY BAY is the horse closest to him in the market after finishing 2nd first up behind Sunday Pray, who has since come out and won again. The horse that finished 3rd in the race (Artie’s Dreamwinner) came out and won on Sunday at his next start, so the form has stood up. Top jockey on and has won second up previously. The value is BENNY GOES BEZERK for Weir. This horse ran 4th two starts ago in the same race behind Sunday Pray and Mandalay Bay. With the claim, he gets a 3kg weight swing on Mandalay Bay today. Ran 3rd last start as favourite on a heavy track, but back onto a good track suits here. His two runs on a good track resulted in a 4th behind Hey Doc and a 2nd placing over this track and distance. $12 available and that’s a good each way price. SARACENA is the last one to mention. It’s rare at the moment that Damian Lane takes a ride for the Hayes/Dabernig team, so his booking here looks ominous. The horse is first up since April but definitely has the talent to be competitive at double figure odds.
TIP: Tahi / Benny Goes Bezerk EW
Race 6
ANCHOR BID is obviously the one to beat here but the $2.00 is as short as I’ll go. She easily brings the best form to the race and her win first up from a seven-week spell was encouraging. She wouldn’t have been anywhere near screwed down for that so she should have improved, which makes her awfully tough to beat here. THINK DIAMONDS ran 3rd to her last start and has the benefit of an extra run under the belt. She closed off really hard on that occasion and gets a big jockey change today with Damian Lane booked. She’ll really appreciate the extra ground today and from the good draw I’d expect her to give Anchor Bid a run for her money once again. I’ll be having something on SWEET MISCHIEF at huge odds too. She was heavily backed at her second start and absolutely motored home to run 2nd over 1600m at Balaklava. Obviously a huge step up in class here but the extra distance will suit and McEvoy wouldn’t come here if she wasn’t good enough.
TIP: Anchor Bid (Best Bet) / Sweet Mischief EW
Race 7
Think the price of WEATHER WITH YOU allows us to have a really good each way bet here. This horse came across from New Zealand for gun trainer Murray Baker and ran 2nd in his first start back at Sandown behind Wassergeist. Baker said that day that he would find the 1400m a bit sharp, but he ran home nicely to get within 1.25L and with the extra 400m he will be giving this a real shake. We’re getting $5.50/$2.00 which is very appealing. TAVISTOCK ABBEY bolted in at Bendigo last start to win by 3.75L. That performance puts him right in the picture here. The horse than ran 3rd to him last start (beaten more than 5L) then came out and won at Ararat yesterday, so that’s an indication that the form is pretty strong. DANTE ROSETTI comes out of a good race in Sydney on debut and won his second start over 1400m at Kembla. Steps up in trip again and Waterhouse will have him fit so he’ll go straight to the front and give them something to chase. AMEROCK can’t be dismissed for Weir after running 3rd in the Port Adelaide Guineas last start, while MUTAMAYEL was too bad to be true last start and can bounce back.
TIP: Weather With You EW
Race 8
Tough races with a number of hopes. WIND FORCE drops in grade here and has his first go down the Flemington straight. Although his record at 1100m is relatively poor on paper, he’s won at both 1000m and 1200m so there’s no concern there. Carries a big weight but if he brought his best form from races in better grade then he’d be very tough to run down. Taking $5. Interested to see how BORD DE GAIN lines up here. He was very good in his debut preparation, winning two of his four races and running 2nd to the talented Wise Hero. Comes into this first up from a spell and he could have the scope to go on to better races so I’ll have something on him at $7.50. PURE ADDICITION is first up since December last year but he’s got a good first up record and comes out of a nice trial behind Bassett and Malaguerra. I’M TELLING YA has been around the mark all prep and only four starts ago he ran 3rd behind Hay Bale and Tahi over this track and distance in Saturday grade, so with D Lane booked to ride he could go close. SAVAJU is another that has to be included with her good first up record.
TIP: Wind Force / Bord De Gain EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
