Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Australian Guineas Day at Flemington on Saturday, March 3rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail true. I suspect the track will be fairly firm and therefore on-pacers might be preferred over backmarkers.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 24 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Flemington and Randwick Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find out Randwick Racing Tips here.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #2 Aloft
Best Value: Race 3 #9 Working From Home
RACE 1
Not a race to be betting heavily into with five horses on debut. (5) Akka’s Meteor has trialled well leading into this and the stable is in good form so the $6 appeals for a small each way bet. The Lindsay park team have three runners. (2) Nomothaj had no chance in the Magic Millions 2YO race after being part of the carnage caused by Ef Troop. She’s a track and distance winner which is a big plus and that win was over the likes of Sunlight, so she should be a big player here. (11) Absaroka is on trial for Sydney and Damien Oliver taking the ride at 54kg suggests she’s a big chance here. Something small on Akka’s Meteor but hugely wary of the Hayes runners. Not confident at all.
TIP: (5) Akka’s Meteor EW
RACE 2
Keen to be with (2) Aloft here, who comes into this first up from a spell. He’s from the same stable as Homesman and Almandin, who were both first up when running the quinella at Caulfield last weekend. First u at 2600m is no concern for me – the stable showed that they are sure to have their horses fit to win. They generally only give these sorts of horses one or two runs in the Autumn to keep them ticking over for the Spring, so they come in fit enough to be very competitive for those races. His first up record is six starts for three wins and two placings, and he’s a Group 2 placegetter so looks to have a class edge on the rest of the field here. He only carries 2.5kg more than the minimum weight and looks very hard to beat with Ben Melham on board (Melham rode Homesman to victory last weekend). (3) Double Bluff is aiming for three on the trot after two good wins in his past two starts over 2400m and 2500m. Mark Zahra keeps the ride and there’s no reason he can’t be competitive once again. (5) Ormito is knocking on the door.
TIP: (2) Aloft
RACE 3
Three I’m interested in here. (1) Fragonard resumed with a fair run first up over 1200m at Caulfield when beaten a length by Prussian Vixen in Group 3 company. She drops back to BM84 grade here and for that reason carries 60kg in weight. First up last preparation she beat (2) Hear The Chant, but from barrier 1 here I really don’t like the look of where she could get in the run. For that reason I’ve got Hear The Chant on top, who is first up here and is sure to go forward. Much better drawn than Fragonard in barrier 6 and is a winner over the track and distance. Would rather take $4 for her rather than $3 for Fragonard. I think the value is clearly (9) Working From Home at $12. This mare bolted in by 7L first up last preparation and then won very easily second up too. She failed in Adelaide and was put out for a spell, so I suspect she pulled up poorly from that. She resumes here and if she puts up a performance like she did first up last prep she could be very competitive. I like the draw out in barrier 9 – she’s another horse that will go forward and should be in the right part of the straight. The only concern is both her wins have come on wet ground, so she will need to prove herself on a firm Flemington deck.
TIP: (2) Hear The Chant / (9) Working From Home EW
RACE 4
I really don’t like this race but I’m with (1) Oregon’s Day by default here, mainly because I don’t like anything else in the race. She’s a Group 3 winner and I like the fact she’s resuming over 1400m rather than a shorter trip like we saw last preparation. I also like the booking of Mark Zahra, who is the in-form jockey in Victoria at the minute. She hasn’t won first up before but she’s run 2nd twice, and she’s trialled well leading into this so she’s the one I’ll be backing. (2) Deja Blue could improve second up but she was beaten 5L by Gogo Grace in Hobart first up. (4) Flippant just keeps going round and round. In her past eight starts she’s lost at $5.50, $7.50, $6, $6, $5, $7.50, $7 and $3.10, so she’s a bit of a money-muncher. She really finds a suitable race to win today but I sacked her long ago and refuse to take $4.80. (5) Harlow Gold typically needs her first up run but she’s trialled well leading into this preparation and she’s got a good record at the distance so she can be competitive. As can (8) Soho Ruby who probably isn’t up to this class but finds a race she can be competitive in due to the other runners being unsuited.
TIP: (1) Oregon’s Day
RACE 5
Wide open race. Happy to have something small each way on (4) Mr Fergus at $12. He’s won three from four this prep and couldn’t have been more dominant at Sandown last start, when bolting in by 2.25L with 60kg on his back. Carries weight again here and will need luck from barrier 1 but he is flying and looks a decent chance at the odds. (11) Seattle Park was huge first up and backed that run up with a solid win in Class 1 company at Yarra Valley. Big step up in class here but third up with the blinkers back on, he should run a bold race. (12) Zandarral is ready to win. I was on him last start and he ran a close 2nd after hitting the front a long way out. He’s rock hard fit now and once again run a big race at good odds with the good barrier draw. (15) Mahalangur has only been fair in two starts this preparation, both over 1400m in Sydney. Now jumps straight to 2000m third up. Was meant to run in the Australian Guineas but didn’t get a run. Backig Mr Fergus and following my money on Zandarral, wary of Seattle Park.
TIP: (4) Mr Fergus EW / (12) Zandarral EW
RACE 6
Again, this is a race I’m not very fond of. (1) Tshahitsi drops back from WFA Group 1 company to a Group 3 Handicap. He has to carry the full 60kg but he’s earned that. He’s got a terrific record at this distance with eight wins from 13 starts, one of which was at this track. Barrier 1 suits him and he should be nicely positioned up on speed. If the last run hasn’t taken too much out of him then he should be able to bounce back and be very competitive in a race like this. (2) Amovatio is one I’m wary of first up from a spell. The barrier draw doesn’t help him at all but he could run a cheeky race fresh. He should have beaten Tshahitsi last preparation over 1600m. He’s getting on in age but he’s won three from eight when first up from a spell and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a big race at $14. (3) Odeon has had early backing which suggests he may have been set for this. He’s first up and while he’s won first up previously, I think he’s best with a run or two under his belt. He’s also best over further, but with the good draw he must be included. (4) Poetic Dream is the favourite. He’s the German Guineas winner over 2000m. From all reports he is a very good horse but is 1400m first up his go?
TIP: (1) Tshahitsi / (2) Amovatio EW
RACE 7
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RACE 8
Leaning towards taking on the two favourites here. (1) Fell Swoop would win this on his best form but it’s been a very long time since he showed that. He’s trialled well at Goulburn leading into this run but he always tends to trial well. He’s got a terrific record at the distance but I really need to see him do it on raceday because he was disappointing last prep. With that said, this is the easiest race he’s contested for a long time. (2) Secret Agenda is a Group 1 winner and like Fell Swoop, she’d be very hard to beat if she turned up at her best here. Hard to know where she’s at though given she’s first up from a long spell. We haven’t seen her since she ran 4th in the Group 1 The Goodwood in May last year. (3) Crystal Dreamer is a short course specialist with five wins and three 2nd placings over the 1000m. He’s got a good record at this track and distance and should be right there at the finish. Value looks to be in the form of (7) Malibu Style and (8) Husson Eagle. Malibu Style is first up over his pet distance and he’s proven he can mix it in these sorts of races in Melbourne, while Husson Eagle was huge first up. The stable is confident in his chances here but his second up record is a bit uninspiring.
TIP: (3) Crystal Dreamer / (7) Malibu Style EW
RACE 9
Bit of a nightmare this race. (6) Scarecrow goes on top after a solid run in the CS Hayes Stakes last start, when finishing 5th behind Grunt. That form holds up very well into the Australian Guineas so if that’s the case, then it should hold up here too. (1) Kentucky Breeze shoulders the big weight here but if you put a line through his first up run then he rates highly here. He was four-wide without cover first up in the CS Hayes, so forget he went around. He was a winner at the track and distance last preparation and with a better draw today can run a much-improved race at double figure odds. (10) Angelic Spirit is one to keep safe first up, while (12) Over And Above will go forward and be there for a long way. The chances don’t end there.
TIP: (6) Scarecrow / (1) Kentucky Breeze EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 4
2, 7, 11, 13, 15
1, 2, 3, 7, 8
1, 5, 6, 10, 12
$100 = 20%
