Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, July 7th.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. There are showers predicted throughout the day, but typically Flemington drains well and I don’t see it causing too much of an issue with the track.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #1 Good 'N' Fast
Best Value: Race 8 #17 Silentz
RACE 1
There’s two clear bets that stand out in the opener here. (4) Mintha is banging on the door for another win after being run down late by (1) Casa De Lago last start at Moonee Valley. She was tiring late there but did carry 59kg, so the drop to 57kg today should help her see out the mile. Williams jumps on and she looks to get the run of the race from barrier 3. (9) Think Diamonds looks the clear value at $7. She ran 3rd in that race behind Mintha and Casa De Lago and recorded the same final 400m as the winner. Her final 200m was the best in the race and she also comes down in weight today. Has placed on both occasions at Flemington and looks a good each way play. (7 Pageantry has obvious claims being third up for the Weir stable, but she’s a bit of a non-winner with just the one win from 17 starts. Backing Think Diamonds each way, saving on Mintha.
RACE 2
(5) Sixties Groove was very heavily backed in his first two Australian starts before starting favourite last week at Caulfield when 2nd to Pacodali. Weir said post-race that he thinks that run will have him pretty well spot on now and the quick-back up is a very positive sign. Craig Williams also takes over for the first time, which is another hint that he’s ready to win. Nothing flash in the price but looks the obvious one to beat. Damian Lane takes the ride on stablemate (3) Grand Dreamer, who comes off a 3rd placing in the Swan Hill Cup, while (4) Riyadh is up to this sort of class when he’s on his best form and certainly isn’t the worst bet at $17.
RACE 3
(2) Miles Of Krishan and (4) Hussy’s Glow fought out the finish over this track and distance two weeks ago, with Miles Of Krishan getting the bob to win by a nose. The final sectionals of Hussy’s Glow were significantly better, however, and back on to a firm track will be a big positive for her today. From barrier 3, hopefully she can settle a touch closer than she did last start. Miles Of Krishan also gets a lovely run from barrier 5 and she’s only third up today, so still has some scope to improve. Her record at this track and distance is outstanding and she has every right to be winning this again today. The big query runner is (5) Sharing, who is a mare with plenty of talent. She resumes here from a spell, first up at 1400m in the series final, which certainly catches the eye. She produced a couple of big performances over this track and distance last prep, mst notably in winning by 2L in January. That was on soft ground, but I’d suggest if she’s tuned up for this she’ll give it a very big shake.
Value bet: (5) Sharing $6.00 Sportsbet
RACE 4
Competitive market with four runners between $4.20 and $5.50. Most interested in (1) Gaulois and (4) Mount Kilcoy. Gaulois beat Masculino two starts ago and that horse has since come out and won his next two starts, so the form is strong. Last start he was caught wide without cover with 60kg on his back, yet battled on bravely to only be beaten 1.3L. Soft draw today, Damian Lane booked to ride, looks a very good chance despite the weight again. Mount Kilcoy ran 2nd in that same race and did well to reel off some good final sectionals despite being checked at the 150m mark. His final 200m was basically the same as the winner (3) Remember The Name, and he ran a better split from the 400m to the 200m too. Drawn well in 6 today and looks well and truly up to this. Remember The Name has enjoyed the run of the race in her past two wins and won’t get it so easy today. Backing both Gaulois and Mount Kilcoy, with a slight leaning to the Weir runner.
Also backing (1) Gaulois $4.60 UBET
RACE 5
Three main horses of interest in this. (1) Good ‘N’ Fast is the clear on-top selection for mine after a fairly convincing win over 1400m here last start. He was stepping up sharply from 1100m that day, so with that run at 1400m under his belt, I think he’ll be even further improved today. He carries top weight but gets a soft run from barrier 3 and looks hard to beat. (6) Goldifox is the obvious danger, having run 2nd to Good ‘N’ Fast last start, beaten 0.3L. Prior to that she ran 2nd to the talented Anjana, which is a very good formline. Should be much closer from barrier 2 here and stays at 54kg, so gets a 2.5kg weight swing in her favour on Good ‘N’ Fast. The value could be (7) Gregorian Chant. She came out of that same race behind Anjana at Moonee Valley on debut, where she sat three-wide without cover for the entire race. She then went to Bendigo and won pretty comfortably on a Heavy track. Drawn awkward but shouldn’t be dismissed.
Value Bet: (7) Gregorian Chant $8.50 Crownbet
RACE 6
Absolutely wide-open race race and not one I want to get very involved in. I’ve been against the favourite (4) Lycurgus just about every start this prep but he just continues to win. His latest victory was over 2520m at this track so the step up to 2600m should be no problem and he’s been beating most of these horses all prep so despite the wide draw, looks hard to beat again. (10) Big Hammer is the one that brings a very different form line to the race. He dropped back from 3200m to 2400m in Adelaide last start where he finished 3rd as the favourite. Think he’s better suited stepping back up in distance today and could be the value in the race. (5) Choysa bolted in with daring tactics two starts ago. Similar tactics didn’t quite work out last start but he’s capable when things go his way.
Value bet: (10) Big Hammer $9.50 UBET
RACE 7
Should just be able to sit back and enjoy the show here with (1) Nature Strip. I wouldn’t say he’s unbackable at $1.45 but you have to have a decent crack to get a decent return. There’s a good chance he’ll be anchoring multis nation-wide. When Weir says he’ll be winning, you know he’s practically unbeatable. (5) I Am Someone and (3) Double Jeopardy filled the placings behind him last start, while (2) Bel Sonic wasn’t given much hope at the Valley and can bounce back with a placing here.
RACE 8
Another wide-open race and this should be run at a decent tempo with a few speedy types engaged. (6) Ozi Choice is favourite after a brave run in defeat over 1400m last start. Big jockey change today with Lane taking over but he’s never run over 1600m before and he’s got competition for the lead, so looks vulnerable. He’s as tough as they come and if he does find the front fairly comfortably then they’ll need to be good to run him down, but he’s no moral in this field. His stablemate (17) Silentz gains a run with scratchings and has to be highly respected with four wins from his past five starts, including one at this track and distance last time out. His final 400m was faster than anything out of the Ozi Choice race last time out and he has the runs on the board at the mile. Looks a good price at $8. (7) Morton’s Fork shouild show signficant improvement today, third up from a spell and up to 1600m. He ran the fastest final 200m last start an draws well in barrier 6. He’s another at a good price at $7.50. Beyond that, (3) Rhythm To Spare and (15) Rib Eye have claims.
RACE 9
Competitive end to the card! Following the form out of the Malibu Style race where (8) Divine Quality ran 2nd and (11) Labuan Star ran 3rd. Divine Quality gets back up to 1200m here which should suit and provided the inside part of the straight is okay, she should be right there at the finish line again. The concern is she’s now run 2nd four times in a row. Labuan Star could be ready to win now after four starts back from a spell. He’s been around the mark all prep having finished 3rd in every start, but Weir always has his horses ready to peak at Flemington for feature races such as this. (9) Princeton Spirit is a horse I have plenty of time for and understandably so given his record of five wins from seven starts. The small concern is he was scratched last week on vet’s advice. Up in class today but all you can do is win and he’s proven how to do that. (7) Just Hifalutin is another ENver Jusufovic horse resuming from a spell today. Much the same as Sharing, if she’s tuned up for this race she should give it a good shake. Very happy to avoid (5) Man From Uncle.
Value Bet: (11) Labuan Star $7.50 Crownbet
