Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, July 21st.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 3m. There’s a few good betting races and also a few impossible races so it could be worth being disciplined with what races you get involved in.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Be sure to check out Episode 43 of the Before You Bet Podcast for Tim's full thoughts on the Randwick and Flemington meetings!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 #4 Crocodile Rock
Best Value: Race 8 #3 Trap For Fools
RACE 1
Incredibly open race to kick off the card here with no less than eight winning chances in the 12-horse field. That means I’ve had to be pretty harsh on a few to try and narrow down the field. Interested in (5) Tagreeda who just ran in a completely unsuitable race first up down the straight behind Nature Strip in Listed grade. Way back in class here back to a fillies handicap and also steps up to 1400m. She is undefeated from two previous second up runs. The wide barrier isn’t ideal but she went close over this track and distance last prep with a big weight and should be running home strongly at each way odds here. (7) Glayva was only beaten 0.7L last week at Caulfield and her closing sectionals weren’t far off the best of the race. She can settle closer to the speed here from barrier 3 and $13 looks over the odds. (6) Shalwa is third up at 1400m from an ideal barrier and has every chance, while (3) Nantaali and (4) Miss Pandanus finished practically alongside each other last start and must be considered.
Value: (7) Glayva $12.00 Crownbet
RACE 2
This is an all-apprentice race which makes it somewhat of a lottery. There’s three horses I’m interested in here but it could pay to stick with the best apprentices in the race, which is probably Ethan Brown and Steph Thornton. Brown takes the ride on (3) Ma Jones for Darren Weir and she hasn’t been all that far away this preparation, despite not being able to put a win on the board.She draws well here, Brown back on is a big positive and she looks a value chance at double figure odds. Thornton rides the favourite (7) So Splendid for Chris Waller. She’s had two runs back this prep in Sydney and was 3rd on both occasions. Third up here and has run 2nd at her only previosu start at the track and distance. We saw Waller bring The Avenger down to Melbourne under similar circumstances last week and that horse wetn very close. Barrier 9 is a touch awkward and she will likely go back form that gate but she looks primed to give this a good shake. (6) Linguist’s form appears to be a bit ordinary but she really hasn’t had things go her way in recent starts. Won well at her only start at the track and distance and $8.00 appeals. I’ll be backing all three at equal stakes at $11.00, $3.40 and $8.00 respectively.
Also backing (6) Linguist $8.00 Crownbet & (7) So Splendid $3.40 Ladbrokes
RACE 3
Staying contest over 2500m and there really does only appear to be three chances in the race. I think you’ve got to just trust that the Williams camp have (4) Crocodile Rock ready to win first up here. No doubt they will be looking at races throughout the Spring for this horse so if he’s anywhere near his top then he’ll be very hard to beat in an offseason race. His only run at the track and distance was a 2nd placing to Almandin – not bad form for a race in July. (8) Thunder Cloud has won four of his past six starts. Steps up in grade once again here after saluting comfortably in Wednesday grade ast start. Down to 54kg here but the other concern is the fact he steps up from 2100m to 2500m, though Weir will have him fit enough. (2) Falago found his race last start and won over the 2600m here. Drops back 100m to 2500m but the big thing he has over the other two is the fact his lead up run came over this distance. Could he be Weir’s best chance rather than Thunder Cloud?
RACE 4
Impossible race. 20 runners down the Flemington straight. (5) Artie Dee Two goes on top for Ben Allen and Darren Weir. Wasn’t far off in some reasonable Melbourne races before going to Adelaide and running well into 4th. Has to carry 59kg here but draws well in the middle of the track and has a good record at this distance. (7) Mystified is another that comes over from Adelaide after winning that race that Artie Dee Two ran 4th in. 2kg weight swing in favour of the Weir horse here and Mystified did fail at her only start down the Flemington straight. (8) Data Point returns off a 28-week spell having failed to fire during his last preparation. He obviously had feet problems last prep as he returns with concussion plates off here which is a key gear change to note. He doesn’t win out of turn but a fresh win here wouldn’t necessarily surprise. (11) Jackson is another that returns from a long spell – he’s had 97 weeks off! Only very lightly raced with five career starts to his name but he did show a bit of talent as a juvenile and we should be monitoring the market here. (13) Overstep drops back from 1400m but a big field down the straight could be what she needs to win again. Chances don’t end there!
RACE 5
Another tricky race with not much to go off here. We don’t see many 2YO races over 1800m at all. Interested in the Weir runner (3) Lift here (familiar theme today). We see so many times Weir start his horses off in the country somewhere and then bring them straight to the city, where they generally measure up. That’e the case here after Lift ran 2nd on debut at Ballarat, beaten 0.2L over 1600m on a Heavy track. Drawn well and I expect him to go very close. Interestingly, Damian Lane (Weir’s number one jockey) takes the ride on (2) Visao for Ciaron Maher. This horse improved out of sight to win by 3.75L at Mildura last start. Maher is another one that can get horses to measure up in the city after racing in the country. (1) Fun Fact comes down from Sydney for the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott stable. He’ll no doubt lead and be very hard to run down. (6) So You Swing at least brings some form of Melbourne metro form to the race after running 2nd at Sandown last start. Keen to back the Weir runner pretty hard each way here.
RACE 6
Looks a bit of a match race here between (1) Brave Song and (4) Order Of Command. It’s quite interesting to see Brave Song resume here rather than in Sydney especially given his two trials were both in Sydney. If he were to bring his best form first up then he’d be very hard to beat here. The obvious queries are the fact he’s first up with top weight and the fact he’s never run down the straight before. With that said, the Snowdens are an elite stable and are based at Flemington so he may have jumped out. Damian Lane is a positive booking. Order Of Command ran 2nd to Nature Strip last start and recorded good wins at Ballarat and Geelong earlier in the campaign. He’s at least had two looks at the Flemington straight (and ran well last start). He also gets 3.5kg off Brave Song. I just think the top weight is a better horse so I’m going with the class edge to get him home.
RACE 7
Good little race but very disappointed Casa De Lago has been scratched. Not particularly keen on anything else but (2) Mr Money Bags has won two of his past three starts including a last-start win over this track and distance. In between those two wins was a luckless run behind Remember The Name, where he was caught three-wide without cover the entire race and was still only beaten 2L. His win last start was over Mount Kilcoy, who came out last weekend and bolted in, so the form looks good. The obvious negative today is the fact he has to carry 59kg which is 2kg more than any other horse in the race, but he’s going well and should be very competitive. (4) Night Falls has figured out how to win now, with three wins from his past five starts, including a 4.7L win in Adelaide last start. Back to Melbourne now and Damian Lane takes the ride for Weir, which is one of only two rides for Weir on the day. Obvious chance. (5) Streets Of Avalon continues to record exceptional late sectionals but just can’t manage to get his head in front. He’s knocking on the door but the fact is he’s won just one race from 18 starts and I can’t back him at that price with that in mind.
RACE 8
Only three horses I’m really interested in here. Darren Weir said in the lead up to last start that (6) Sixties Groove was about ready to win, and that he did, with a dominant victory at this track and distance. Draws the exact same barrier today and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. Speaking of horses ready to win, (3) Trap For Fools is just about ready now. He’s third up and up to 2000m. His run over 1800m last start was very good after settling three-wide on speed throughout the race. I suspect they will roll forward and attempt to lead with him today, which is what he was most effective doing in WA. $9.00 seems reasonable odds. (1) Pacodali produced a very good win last start over 1800m, beating stablemate Sixties Groove. He actually gets in 1.5kg better off at the weights here but has barrier 15 to contend with. He’s also had three starts when third up for no wins or placings.
Value: (3) Trap For Fools $9.00 Crownbet
RACE 9
There’s plenty of horses you can just put a pen through here, but a few queries over the top few in the market too. I really dislike the jockey booking on (4) Invincible Al, especially as the horse only has 56kg and doesn’t need a 3kg claim to win this. The horse is flying, coming off a 2.5L win in Adelaide after a good first up run. Hopefully all Nathan Punch has to do is hold on and steer. (5) Wise Hero has been disappointing all preparation but drops back to 1000m today and gets blinkers on for the first time. He hasn’t really gone very close at all this prep but he does come out of some strong races and gets Lane back aboard today. (2) Rocket Tommy returned with a terrific win first up but then failed badly last start. This horse’s record tells you everything you need to know – he either wins or doesn’t go close. 60.5kg coming off that performance last start is some concern. (8) Nordic Empire is flying but has never placed at Flemington from three previous. (10) Del Piero goes in the quaddie, while it’s probably worth keeping the topweight (1) We’ve Got This safe at $15.
