It’s a short turnaround into Matchday 31 after a midweek slate of games, with the Manchester Derby headlining a huge weekend of English Premier League action. The battle for fourth place continues to be an enthralling race, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets for the weekend!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 31 Preview & Betting Tips
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Villa Park, Sunday 6th April, 2:30am AEDT
The most table defining fixture this weekend takes place at Villa Park as Nottingham Forest travels to Birmingham to take on Aston Villa. A brilliant performance on Thursday morning has seen Aston Villa jump into seventh place on the Premier League table, just three points behind fourth placed Manchester City. Nottingham Forest solidified their place in the top three with a 1-0 win over Manchester United during the week, picking up their third straight victory. Forest are now seven points clear inside the top four, and should be featuring in the Champions League next season.
Aston Villa’s win over Brighton was built on a brilliant second half performance that was remarkably efficient. Villa scored three goals in the final 40 minutes of the game, scoring 3 goals from 5 shots on target. Unai Emery’s side won three of their last four games, and are unbeaten in five of their last six games, even though they’ve played three of the top eight teams in the league. Aston Villa have only lost two of their last twelve games, and they look every chance of making a serious tilt at the top four.
These sides are remarkably even with two wins, one draw and two losses for both clubs across their last five Premier League matches against each other. Both sides are in great form over the last month, and given the high stakes nature of this game, there will likely be some cautious football played by both teams. Forest have shown a capacity to hang on in games this season when other teams are dominating in general play, so even if Villa get on top, Forest have the capacity to scrap out a result.
Brentford vs Chelsea
GTech Community Stadium, Sunday 6th April, 11:30pm AEST
*Note this article was written before Chelsea vs Tottenham
Brentford will be looking to bounce back when they host Chelsea on Sunday night, having won just one of their last four games. The Bees suffered a 2-1 defeat against Newcastle during the week, allowing Newcastle to have 21 shots on goal, despite winning the possession battle. At the time of writing Chelsea have fallen out of the top four but will regain their spot in fourth if they beat Tottenham on Friday morning. Chelsea lost their Matchday 29 game against Arsenal, unable to convert their dominance in general play with 60% possession, only producing 9 shots on goal and failing to hit the back of the net.
Chelsea have been very solid this season, possessing the 5th best attack (53 goals) and the 6th ranked defence (37 goals conceded). Pairing with that Chelsea are ranked 2nd in the league for possession (58.2%), they have all the tools to be a great team, but their consistency has held them back. Their work in the front half of the ground could be the difference, given Brentford ranks 12th for possession (48.1%) and 15th for defence (47 goals conceded).
Brentford are sliding at the moment, with their hopes of qualifying for Europe all but gone, this is going to be a tough final eight games for Brentford given they essentially have nothing to play for. After being a dominant team at home early in the season, Brentford are winless from their last seven home games in the Premier League. Brentford’s defence is vulnerable, and if Chelsea can control the ball and keep it in their front half, the Bees will be in for a long day.
Chelsea to Win
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
Manchester United vs Manchester City
Old Trafford, Monday 7th April, 1:30am AEST
The 196th instalment of the Manchester Derby takes place on Monday morning, with Manchester City desperate to get into the top four. After a 2-0 win over Leicester during the week, the defending champions are in fourth, but will drop to fifth if Chelsea beats Tottenham on Friday morning. Manchester United’s horror season continued with a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest on Wednesday. The Red Devils had 69% possession and 23 shots to Forest’s 8, but could not capitalise and somehow failed to pick up any points.
Manchester United have had a horror campaign with a 10-7-13 record, scoring the sixth fewest goals in the league and having a middle of the pack defence (ranked 10th). Even against a Manchester City side that isn’t performing as well, they haven’t got the capacity to create opportunities and score. Their high possession football has left their defence vulnerable, and City has made United’s defence look clueless plenty of times in recent years.
Unsurprisingly Pep Guardiola’s side has well and truly had Manchester United's measure over the last four years. City have won five of their last seven league fixtures against United, with an aggregate scoreline of 18-5 across those five wins. Manchester City are arguably the best value bet in the Premier League this weekend, they’ve absolutely toyed with United in recent seasons and will be desperate to continue their push for the top four.
Manchester City to Win
$2.10 (2 Units)
