Not the most exciting Friday Night football slate this week, as the evening concludes with the Storm heading to CommBank Stadium to take on the Eels, in a top of the table v bottom of the table matchup. Whilst the Storm have one hand on the Minor Premiership, the Eels are battling it out with the Tigers for the Wooden Spoon. Should be one way traffic here at CommBank. Nevertheless, we bring you our full preview and betting tips below!
2024 NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm
CommBank Stadium, Friday 26th July, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels are coming off the bye in round 20, but a look back at their past five (0-5) and 10 (1-9) games, shows they are horribly out of form. In their last game, they took on the Titans on the Gold Coast, going down 24-16. The scoreline flattered to deceive, with the Eels poor form continuing as they went down 18-0 after just 20 minutes, as the Titans left hand attack sliced through the Eels’ poor right-side defence. A Titans try with 25 minutes left had them up 24-6 and the game essentially over, before two late tries for the Eels put some respectability on the score. But it didn’t matter, as the Eels continued their losing streak.
The Storm were sensational last week, hosting the streaking Roosters on Saturday night as slight home underdogs. The result was never in doubt, with the Storm dominating from the opening kick-off, winning 24-8. The Roosters put forward their worst performance for some time, making 17 errors, whilst only making 1573 metres and breaking the line three times. With Cam Munster named on an extended bench this week, the Storm are nearing full strength and cruising towards their 9th* Minor Premiership in just 19 seasons.
Match Preview
Those with memories of the cracking games these teams had played a few years ago would be chomping at the bit to bet the Eels with a 16.5-point head start. However, the past two results have me thinking otherwise. The Storm and Eels have met twice in the past 12 months, with the Storm winning on aggregate 94-32. Concerning, to say the least.
The last matchup between the teams came back in round 11 for Magic Round, with the Storm easily accounting for the Eels 48-16 as 11.5-point favourites at a neutral venue (Suncorp Stadium). The total closed 48.5, with the Storm basically covering the total by themselves. For reference, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen were missing for the Storm, whilst the Eels were without Mitch Moses and Clint Gutherson.
Moving forward to this week, the Storm opened 15.5-point favourites, with the number slowly being bumped up to 16.5. This is closing in on the biggest spread of the season (17.5), and I’ve no doubt it will close 17.5. I’m really struggling to get to this number, with my fair sitting around 12. Whilst I have no doubt the Storm could win this by 50, my numbers say no, so I will not bet it.
As for the total, it opened a high 51.5, and has been bumped all the way up to 53.5. Both teams have been heavy overs teams this season, and despite my fair total sitting at 51.5, I can wrap my head around the move higher. The Storm’s defence may be a little less inspired this weekend, whilst the Eels’ defence is basically non-existent. I’ll take the overs here, but with no real numbers edge, it will be low staking.
Over 52.5 points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
R Papenhuyzen (1+ try) – 9 tries in 11 games, unless Pap gets injured, this leg is close to a lock.
E Katoa (1+ try) – Katoa has been a beast this season, with 8 tries in 17 games, including one in the previous meeting between these teams.
C Gutherson (1+ try) – Gutho has been bereft of tries this season, with only two to his name. However, with no Mitch Moses, King Gutho simply must step up if the Eels have any shot at keeping this close. With rumours swirling of Gutho losing his fullback spot next season, he will want to prove his worth.
SGM Odds: $15 at Bet365
