Two teams coming of last start losses look to get back in the winners circle in NRL Round 4, as the Sea Eagles head to Wollongong to take on the Dragons on Saturday afternoon. There should be some great attacking football to kick things off here on Easter Saturday, so let’s take a look.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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2024 NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
WIN Stadium, Saturday 30th March, 5:30pm (AEDT)
Last Week
It was a tale of two Dragons last weekend, as Shane Flanagan’s man lost 46-24 to the Cowboys, despite shooting out to an 18-4 lead after 20 minutes. Unfortunately, the Dragons conceded 7-straight tries to the Cowboys and were ultimately blown off the park for the second week in a row. The Dragons’ attack has shown promise in patches, but their defence must improve this week against a humming Sea Eagles team if they’re any chance at getting their second win of the season.
Speaking of the Sea Eagles, they were involved in the game of the season so far last week, going down 28-24 to the Eels in Parramatta. The Sea Eagles had their chances at winning, however their ill-discipline let them down, conceding 8 penalties (including a sin-bin), whilst making 13 errors. A late penalty against the Sea Eagles cost them what could have been a match-winning try, and Head Coach Anthony Seibold needs to get this under control if this talented roster is going to have a chance at a top 4 finish this season.
Match Preview
The Sea Eagles and Dragons met in round 22 last season at this very venue, with the Sea Eagles sneaking home 24-18. Manly came into the contest as massive 7.5-point road favourites. They didn’t cover this, but the fact they won the game at all was a testament to how poor the Dragons were playing at this point in the season. The Dragons controlled 61% of possession, running for 430m more than the Sea Eagles, made 5 less errors than the Sea Eagles, and still lost the game at home. This was despite the Sea Eagles missing Tom Trbojevic in the matchup.
As for this clash, the Sea Eagles opened as 5.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games, with that number seeming short. It proved correct, despite the Sea Eagles losing last week, they have taken on big money, pushing the visitors out to 8.5-point favourites. This is far closer to my fair, as I make the Sea Eagles 9-point favourites. With all the value sucked out of this market, we will look towards the total.
The total opened 45.5 where it has stayed, however it is heavily juiced to the over. I make a fair total for this one 48, and I see points on offer for both teams in this matchup. I am far more bullish on the Sea Eagles attack against the Dragons’ defence though, so will look towards the Manly team total, which currently sits around 26.5. The Dragons have proven over the past two weeks that their defence isn’t a good unit, and can give up bulk points to teams, conceding 38 to the Dolphins, and 46 to the Cowboys. The Dragons are conceding the second most points, and the most metres conceded per set in the league. With the Sea Eagles attack looking slick, and Garrick kicking goals at a great clip, I can’t see the Sea Eagles not scoring five tries in this game, sailing over 26 points.
Sea Eagles (team total) Over 26.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
T Koula (1+ try) – The Dragons right edge defence has been horrible this season, and with the Sea Eagles loving going down that left corridor, expect the explosive speed of Koula to be too much to handle.
T Trbojevic (1+ try) – I’m predicting 30+ points for the Sea Eagles, and when they score that many points, it’s hard not to see a Tommy Turbo 4-pointer.
Dragons 1st half (over) 8.5 – The Dragons have shown they can score points in bunches too, and in front of their home crowd I like them to get two tries in the first half.
SGM Odds: $10.17 at Neds
