The traditional ANZAC Day NRL clash between the Dragons and the Roosters will be the second match on the afternoon set of fixtures. Always delivering a terrific contest, both sides usually manage to produce their best, regardless of where they are standing on the competition ladder. Thankfully, there will be no such issues this year with both displaying just how capable they are. Before You Bet will take a detailed look at the fixture ahead with the aim of adding to your viewing enjoyment by finding a winner or two.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters
Allianz Stadium – Thursday 25th April – 4:05pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dragons made a statement last week with a commanding 30-12 victory over the Warriors at home. In arguably their best performance of the season, they outclassed a superior opponent and executed to a high standard. It demonstrated just what they are capable of when they play to their potential. Despite a 49% share of possession, they completed at 85%, averaged 9.3m per carry, had 5 line breaks and committed just 9 errors. They still missed 34 tackles but will take plenty of confidence away from an improved defensive structure; the Warriors were attacking their line on several occasions and were held out.
The Roosters were unsuccessful in their match against the Storm at home, allowing the visitors to score and convert with 5 minutes remain to steal an 18-12 result. Trailing 12-6 at HT, they fought their way back into the contest and capitalised when Munster was sent to the sin bin. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough and they arguably should’ve won the match. With a 49% share of possession, they completed at 80%, averaged just 8.2m per carry, had 557pcm’s but made just 1 line break. The indifferent performance was made worse by the fact that they missed 45 tackles. They are a better team than that effort suggests but at this stage of the season, their combinations and execution are not ‘clicking’ for them.
Match Prediction
There is a lot to unpack ahead of this match. It is best to start by looking at the history between these two sides in this fixture. Of the past 10 ANZAC Day games, the Roosters have won 6, including 4 of the past 5. Regardless of the winner, the average margin is 9.2 points, with the total points average being 36. Of the past 5 meetings (regardless of the date), the average winning margin is 10.2 points, and the total points sits at 53.4. These fixtures are usually low scoring affairs. The Dragons also have a 40% win record at this ground compared to the Roosters 64%. The Roosters have a superior record in both attack (22ppg vs 19ppg) and defence (18ppg vs 22ppg).
Looking at the form though, there is no reason why the Dragons cannot perform strongly. Despite being outsiders ($2.60 vs $1.50), they proved last week that they are more than capable of performing well. The inconsistency of the Roosters this season only clouds judgement further. On their day, they can compete with anyone in the competition, but such performances are becoming rare or lacking consistency over 80 minutes. The return of Young and Walker to their team is bound to give them a boost both in confidence and stability; another week back for Tedesco will also serve them well. The point of difference will come from their bench. They appear capable in this area of maintaining the intensity set by the starting players. Having the speed of Watson to call upon also adds another dimension from the ruck. As mentioned above, these fixtures have a history of being close, so it is best to use this to your advantage.
Roosters 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The evidence is mentioned above in the ‘Suggested Bet’ section. The enormity of the day generally means a tight, low scoring contest. This option also removes any need to make an overall judgement on a winner. If you do have a collect, you may want to think about donation some money to the ANZAC Day appeal.
Total Points Under 43.5
Either Team by 1-12
SGM Odds: $3.10 at Ladbrokes
