A Sunday afternoon triple header kicks off in Wollongong, as the Panthers head south in an attempt at revenge on the Dragons, after the joint merger’s round 13 victory over the Panthers at BlueBet Stadium. Both teams have plenty to play for, which makes this an interesting game to kick things off here on Sunday afternoon. Catch our full preview and betting tips below!
2024 NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers
WIN Stadium, Sunday 28th July, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dragons come into this clash fresh off the bye, having last played in a round 19 victory over the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. The Dragons were dominant early, leading 28-6 after a Christian Tuipulotu try just after halftime. The Broncos managed to run in four tries in the last 25 minutes to close the gap, but the Dragons were solid in a game they were missing Ben Hunt and Zac Lomax. It continued the up and down season the Dragons have had in 2024, with their record over the past 10 games sitting at 5-5.
As for the Panthers, they welcomed back star halfback Nathan Cleary in round 20, and they needed every bit of his clutch play in a 28-26 Golden Point victory over the Dolphins at home. After trailing 26-12 with just over 20 minutes remaining, the Panthers were in deep trouble. After some individual brilliance from Moses Leota, then Daine Laurie, the Panthers managed to get within two points. A late penalty goal helped the Panthers send the game to Golden Point, where Nathan Cleary slotted a 2-point field goal from 42 metres out to win the game for the Panthers.
Match Preview
As mentioned, these teams met back in round 13, with both sides missing their Origin stars. The Panthers closed 8.5-point favourites, with the total closing 40.5. The Panthers attack was terrible, and the Dragons deserved their 22-10 victory. I won’t take much from this spread, or result, given the sheer number of players missing for both teams in this clash.
A better indicator will be the clash in round 14 last season, where the Panthers closed as 18.5-point home favourites, in a 26-18 victory over the Dragons. This shows that the Dragons obviously make a difficult matchup for the Panthers, and this game at WIN Stadium could be tighter than the market predicts.
Speaking of the Panthers, they opened 10.5-point favourites for this weekend’s matchup, with Panthers money coming in during the week to where they now sit as 11.5-point favourites. If a further push comes on game day, this could close 12.5. I make the Panthers 9.5-point favourites, but wouldn’t consider a bet on the Dragons, given their propensity at losing by 13+.
As for the total, it opened 47.5, with overs money coming into the market. The total is now closing in on 48.5, with a heavily juiced over 47.5 the most widely available number. I’m not touching another Panthers’ total, as I cannot predict how their defence is going to play, given the number of changes they’ve made over the past 10 weeks.
This could be a statement game for the Panthers, who are just about back to full strength. Cleary looked a little rusty last weekend, however, should be better for the run, and with Luai’s confidence at an all-time high, the Panthers could put in a dominant display this weekend.
Going to run with slightly bigger odds here, and a lower outlay, as there is still the chance the Dragons keep this one tight, however if the Panthers get away, this could get ugly.
Panthers -23.5
$4.00 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
C Tuipulotu (1+ try) – Attacking the weaker Panthers’ right edge defence, Tuipulotu has shown he can score tries with the best of them, with five tries in his seven appearances this season.
J Luai (1+ try) – Luai is in career best form, and with the Dragons conceding 41% of their tries on the right edge, expect Luai to be dangerous all game.
Panthers ML – Explained above, Panthers should be far too good.
SGM Odds: $14.93 at Neds
