Doomben hosts a triple header of Group 1 action this weekend with the JJ Atkins Stakes, Queensland Derby and Stradbroke Handicap headlining the nine-race card. The track is currently rated a Good 4, and while there is up to 4mm of rain predicted on Saturday, I don't think we'll see much of a change in the track conditions.
We have betting tips and comments below for every race on the card.
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Doomben Racing Tips for Saturday, 10th of June
Race 1
Two I quite like here. Snapping up the $4.40 on offer for ALL OVER BOSANOVA who looks suited to either lead or box seat. The draw allows them to lead if they want, but there is a bit of pace in the race so they may sit on their heels. Her first two runs this prep were complete forget runs, caught wide the entire trip on both occasions, and she looked home for all money last start before being nabbed on the line by Tactical Advantage, who got the gun run in the race. Tactical Advantage draws 13 here so won't enjoy such a good run, while the Good track should suit All Over Bosanova better than the Heavy track from last start. The other I like at odds is CALANDA for the Snowden/McEvoy combination. I think this horse is going much better than his recent form suggests. First up he won, second up he never saw daylight, third up he travelled wide and was checked numerous times in the straight, and last start he never handled the terrible Eagle Farm track. Back onto a Good track suits him and he can go forward or back, but from barrier 9 I think they'll go back in a race with good tempo on paper. $14 is a decent price.
Tip: All Over Bosanova / Calanda EW
Race 2
Really like the price of MISS GUNPOWDER here at the $5.50 mark. She's come back at her best this prep for her new trainers at Lindsay Park. First up she won nicely in Melbourne and then ran in the Group 1 UBET Classic where she was six-wide the entire trip and a complete forgive run. Last start she dropped to Group 3 company and bumped into her stablemate Fuhryk who I think is very, very smart and will go on to win better races. I think that form line is pretty hot and dropping back to Listed company on the minimum weight of 54kg has her very well placed. Sticky draw but Craig Williams rides and although it's her first time going this way around, the stable always have them well educated. She's heading to the Tatts Tiara after this so should be very competitive in this and happy to back her at the price. Biggest danger is NANCY for Snowden/Bowman. Her run at the Gold Coast last start was huge coming from the back with 59kg. She has 58kg to carry again here but draws well and looks a top chance once again. A couple of value are QUATRONIC who is flying, and JIMMY REA having his second start back from a long spell following his career in Singapore.
Tip: Miss Gunpowder
Race 3
Really quite keen on RELIGIFY here. Was almost the lay of the day last start on the Heavy track at Eagle Farm which he didn't handle one bit and weakened out as I expected. He needs a Good track which he should get here provided any rain isn't too heavy. If the track is in the Good range, I'm more than happy to back him. He gets in very well under the set weights and penalties conditions here which means he only carries 57kg with the minimum weight at 54.5kg. It was only two starts ago that he won in similar company over this distance with 59kg, so with 57kg he should be very hard to beat. Happy to take $3.20. COL 'N' LIL probably hardest to beat and MOHER will get a gun run from barrier 1 so should be included.
Tip: Religify (Best Bet)
Race 4
Most open race of the day and one I really struggled to narrow down. There's eight horses in the field that I think could genuinely win the race. Going to stick with RAIMENT who has been slightly inconsistent with her form this prep but when she's at her best she looks a filly that could be Group 1 quality. I think getting back onto a Good track today should see her bounce back to her best and if she finds that form she'll be hard to beat with the inside gate. Can make a case for both PROMPT RESPONSE and MISS DEBUTANTE, with the latter being a horse I'm particularly keen on going forward. The value lies with all three Snowden runners: TYCOON TARA, SERENE MAJESTY and EXTENSIBLE. I'd be paying close attention to the market with those three. BONNY O'REILLY is flying and is an emergency in the Stradbroke but this is a much classier field than what she's been facing and the draw does her no favours.
Tip: Raiment
Race 5
Think OAK DOOR is a very good each way bet here at the $8 mark. His first up run over 1200m at Flemington was very good, finishing 4th beaten just over 2 lengths. He tends to improve at his second up run and he steps up sharply to 1600m which should suit him better than the 1200m. He won in Group 2 company over 1400m in Melbourne back in February, and also beat Widgee Turf over that distance too. He is an emergency in the Stradbroke so against his own age here he looks a live chance with Craig Williams aboard. SYLPHEED is racing very well but draws horribly, while RIVER RACER could be the value at double figure odds. NICANOVA is a winning chance but looks under the odds to me at $3.60. Wide open race but happy to back Oak Door each way.
Tip: Oak Door EW
Race 6
Really keen on one at double figure odds here along with the obvious favourite MELODY BELLE. Melody Belle bolted in to win the Sires' Produce by more than four lengths last start on the Heavy track at Eagle Farm. The victory was arrogant and she deserves to be the $2.20 favourite here, but her ability to handle the track that day possibly meant the margin was greater than it might have been on a Good track. I don't doubt that she'll be just as good here up to 1600m and back onto a Good track, but plenty of horses will improve out of sight today compared to last start at Eagle Farm. One of those is TANGLED and he represents a terrific value option at $13. I think he's way over the odds and I think he's in this up to his ears. Completely forget he even lined up in the Sires' Produce last start, he didn't go a yard on that surface and back onto a Good track here should see him bounce back. Two starts ago he won at Group 2 level over 1200m at this track, and that was after travelling wide throughout the race. I don't see the 1600m being an issue, and the inside gate is a bonus. I think we'll see him closer to the speed and if Melody Belle is giving him a few lengths headstart he may be hard to catch. Expecting a huge run from him and at $13 I'll be backing him as well as the favourite.
Tip: Melody Belle / Tangled EW (Best Value)
Race 7
Even bunch of stayers here for the Derby. Going to stick with the New Zealander SHOCKING LUCK who was another that just didn't handle the Eagle Farm track last start. His win two starts ago at this track and distance, where he won dominantly by just under 3 lengths, makes him very hard to beat in this. He draws the inside barrier here which should see him box seat and the firmer track will be no issue. Happy to take the $6 we're getting. Hugh Bowman takes the ride on RUTHVEN who ran enormous in the SA Derby over 2500m last start. He was caught wide and had to do a stack of work before fighting on to finish 2nd, and my only query would be the drop back to 2200m. VOLATILE MIX draws barrier 20 but followed up his win in the SA Derby with a solid 2nd last start over this distance at Eagle Farm. I do find it interesting that Lane jumps off to ride the stablemate MONGOLIAN WOLF, although Allen did ride Volatile Mix to victory in the SA Derby. Mongolian Wolf failed last start after winning impressively on his Australian debut for Weir. No doubt the month off will have seen him freshened up and spot on for this at double figure odds. Draws well and Lane/Weir in big races usually produces. Another at double figure odds that can't be ruled out is BLACK ON GOLD for Waller. This horse needs a firm track, and if you ignore all his failures on wet tracks, his form leading into this is actually pretty solid. The draw isn't helpful, but Waller did say weeks ago that this horse was a smokey for the Derby and I think he'll measure up here. ANA ROYALE another to include on the back of a luckless run in the Oaks last start.
Tip: Shocking Luck
Race 8
CLEARLY INNOCENT is the one to beat here off his dominant win in the Kingsford-Smith Cup but I once again wonder if his win was a touch flattering due to the Eagle Farm surface. From barrier 20 he is sure to get a long way back on a track that typically suits on-pacers and I just think there's a couple of others I'd rather be on here. One of those is COUNTERATTACK who from all reports is flying and Waller said even he didn't handle the Eagle Farm track last start, despite finishing 3rd to Clearly Innocent. If the track is anywhere between a Good 4 and a Soft 6 I think this horse is in with a red hot crack. Barrier 2 suits and even though he's third highest in the weights, he is well weighted to win this. Another of Waller's horses I want to be on is MACKINTOSH who comes into this first up from a spell. He's undefeated first up and last prep won the Theo Marks over 1300m where he beat Counterattack, although Counterattack was the biggest moral you'd ever see beat that day. His trials have been very good, undefeated at the track, undefeated fresh, has won two from three at the distance and draws the inside gate so should find a great spot on the pace. IN HER TIME is over the odds at 20/1. Backing both Counterattack ($8.50) and Mackintosh ($8).
Tip: Counterattack / Mackintosh
Race 9
Sticking with NEVERLAND here and putting a pencil through his last start at Eagle Farm, even though he finished off reasonably well and was only beaten 1.3L. His run two starts ago over 2000m at Flemington on a Good surface with 59.5kg was very encouraging and the key today is getting back onto a firm track today which should see him very hard to beat. Carries just 53kg and happy to have a crack at the $5 on offer. Value in the race could be BENZINI who won this race last year.
Tip: Neverland
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
