The Dolphins and Knights head to Perth to battle out this mid table clash. A loss for the Dolphins will put the nail in the coffin for their finals hopes whilst the Knights have their sights set on a possible top 4 finish.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via BoomBet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 5:30pm AEST, August 5th, Optus Stadium
Game 1 of an Optus Stadium double header sees the Dolphins and Knights do battle in a match-up that promises a frenzy of tries. Knights winger Dominic Young currently leads all Try Scorers in the NRL with 20 over his 18 games played whilst Dolphins winger and NRL Leading Point Scorer Jamayne Isaako sits at 7th on the Try Scoring list with 16 four pointers. Our model has this game sitting right at the 48.5 mark and with the Dolphins conceding an average of 28 opposition points over their last 5 games I am backing the OVER.
Wayne Bennett has been tinkering with his line-ups over the past few weeks with injury and suspension playing its part. Nothing seems to be doing the trick though with the Dolphins having only won 1 of their last 7 games despite five of them being played in Queensland. Bennett’s men were a defensive presence early in the season but have since fallen to last in the league in Run Metres Conceded with an average of 1501m/game. That number has ballooned out over their past 7 games to 1890m giving their opposition prime real-estate from which to mount their attacks.
The Knights on the other hand have won 4 straight, taking out top 8 opponents Melbourne and Canberra in the process. They have been a tough team to follow this year, losing in spots where they should have won and winning in spots where they should have lost. The Knights spirit is shining through and their recent attacking form scoring an average of 38.5 points/game over their winning streak is miles ahead of any other team including the Panthers and Broncos.
This game will be won on defence, both teams have the ability to attack and score points but the team which can spot up and reduce line breaks and offloads will have the best opportunity to take the two competition points. With notable defensive liabilities Tesi Niu, Kodi Nikorima and Valynce Te Whare playing on the fringes, I can see the Knights taking advantage with their big bodied outside backs in Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew and Dom Young.
Value Bet: Game Total OVER 48.5 - $1.91 (2 Units) Unibet
Player Prop: Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer - $2.40 (1 Unit) Bet365
Knights Team Total Over 28.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Knights Team total OVER 22.5 - Newcastle are averaging 38.5 points per game over their current win streak which includes W’s against two top 8 teams. They won’t have a problem putting tries past the feeble Dolphins defence.
Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer - The bustling Newcaslte centre has gone to new heights since his breakout Origin game scoring two tries as well as having two try assists, 2 line breaks and 3 line break assists over his last three games.
Dolphins to score at least 14 points - The Knights have allowed their opposition to score 14 points or more in 16 of 19 games this year whilst the Dolphins have only missed this number on 3 occasions.
SGM Odds: $4.25 at BoomBet
