Welcome to our horse racing preview for Cranbourne on Wednesday 20 September. We have nine races on the card, with the track currently rated a Soft 5, but we may see that improve with fine weather predicted.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
CRANBOURNE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Ocean’s Fourteen
Best Value: Race 5 Potemkin
Race 1
We start off with a tricky race, where most of the field has fairly poor exposed form and so most of the interest lies with two of the debutantes. The booking of Damian Lane on THE COUNSELLOR is particularly eye-catching. I get the feeling Lane would have been riding Crystal Wings for Ellerton/Zahra but has opted with this horse instead. He had a jump out at Sandown where he finished off nicely under a tight hold and it won’t take much for him to be competitive in this. CONNERY is the other first-starter that is well in the market. He’s bred for speed and certainly bred to handle the sting out of the track, draws well and has had money to suggest he will go well here. His trainer isn’t really known for being a trainer of sprinters so that’s a little query of mine, but it’s always hard to know when they haven’t been seen publicly. Not really a race I’m keen to get involved in here but would be leaning towards the horses on debut.
TIP: The Counsellor
Race 2
Like the look of NAANTALI here each way at the $5.50 mark. She makes her debut here for the Ciaron Maher stable following a sharp jump out at Sandown, which she won comfortably. The gate certainly hurts here and I’d expect them to go back, but hopefully Dee can give her a chance at running them down. FUTURIST comes up the $2.80 favourite after a good first up run at Bendigo when only beaten by a nose. The extra 100m looks to suit based on his finishing effort that day, and from barrier 6 he’ll get the run of the race once again. No knock. Big watch on CREATIVE HARMONY who is another horse on debut for John Sadler (stablemate to The Counsellor in R1), and MERCIABELLE has to be respected on debut for Hayes/Dabernig. The value could be SISTER MARIE who ran well on debut back in May and resumed with a luckless run at Donald first up.
TIP: Naantali EW
Race 3
Looks a nice race for LIBERATORE. He ran well on debut at Wangaratta over 1170m when held up until the 300m mark before finishing off strongly to run 2nd. Straight up to 1400m looks ideal and should get a sweet run from barrier 4, so only has to repeat his debut performance to go close here. MADONNA LILY has had two runs back from a 489-day spell so should be nearing peak fitness today. She’s placed in both runs back and can go well, despite this being a harder race. SIMEONI has been good his past two starts and can go close from the good draw. Pretty keen on LIBERATORE but wouldn’t want him much shorter.
TIP: Liberatore
Race 4
Very keen on two debutantes here. The first of those is OCEAN’S FOURTEEN who only has to run up to what we saw in a jump out at Sandown in order to be winning this. He was untested when winning that jump out, and with a $325k price tag he’d want to be winning this in order to go on to better races. Draws well and snapping up the $2.65 still available. John Sadler brings another first starter here in the form of EARNEST CREDERE and the booking of Damian Oliver is a notable one. He also had a quiet jump out at Sandown on the same day as Ocean’s Fourteen. They’ll likely go back from the wide barrier but I’ll be having something small at each way odds of $9.50. AMORTENTIA has run well at her past two and both have been in decent form races. The 3rd placing behind Aberro and Wassergeist two starts ago reads well for this so she’ll go well again.
TIP: Ocean’s Fourteen (Best Bet) / Earnest Credere EW
Race 5
Deep race this with a few winning hopes. Interested in two at decent odds here. The first of those is POTEMKIN who blew a gale in the market last start when running 3rd at Geelong over 1726. Before that race he’d recorded two wins in a row, but with 38 days off in the lead up to last start, he clearly wasn’t in good enough shape to win (as the market told us). With that run under his belt, the senior jockey taking back over and the good draw, I think he can bounce back here at $7.50. WHITE DEVON was our best value of the day two starts ago when running 3rd at big odds and she finds similar conditions to run well again today at $17. She’s got a great record at the distance with five wins and three placings from 12 starts, and provided the track is still in the soft range at this point of the day, she should go close. Seven of her eight wins have come on soft ground so that’s the all-important factor, but Newitt taking over from the apprentices is a positive too. White Devon actually beat STRONG HAND at the end of July by 2.5L, and that horse is $3.30 here. STRONG HAND followed that 3rd placing with a 3L win, and does get a 2.5kg weight swing on White Devon so he gets every chance to win again. ZILBIYR won well on heavy ground last start and provided the track is wet he can go well again. JOLIE’S CAFÉ continues to improve with every start back from a long spell and is getting close to a win. Rates well.
TIP: Potemkin (Best Value) / White Devon EW
Race 6
There’s been a big go early for SUNDAY PRAY here after winning over 1300m at Sandown last start when changing tactics on the horse to lead all the way. Fully fit now and in winning form, they’ll lead again and there’s no reason he can’t win again. I’m actually pretty keen on Darren Weir’s runner LIGHT ‘N’ FIRE though. He’s had two runs back from a spell and is ready to peak third up, and comes out of a strong form line from last start behind Bon’s Away, who’s won his last three races by a combined 9L. Steps up to 1400m where he’s never finished outside the top two, and draws to get a great run from barrier 4. Expecting him to go very close at $3.25. WRITTEN ATTRACTION has won three on the bounce and just needs a good ride from barrier 11 to be able to run well again here at each way odds.
TIP: Light ‘N’ Fire
Race 7
If SNEAKERS is tuned up for this first up then she surely goes very close. She’s undefeated first up, including a dominant 2L win last prep over Pedrena (who then went on to beat Samovare). Sneakers went on to be very competitive in Saturday class races, so dropping back to midweek company first up on a soft track looks a winning formula. $4.60 looks a fair price given this is a fairly deep race. RAIZA FLAME has won three of her last five races, including a 4L romp last start on heavy ground at this track and distance. They led that day so expect them to employ similar tactics from the good gate here. I’d be including both Weir horses – ROYAL ACE and ANOTHER COLDIE – at double figure odds, while AJANI is a noticeable runner for Peter & Paul Snowden. They very rarely send runners down to Melbourne for a midweek race so you have to take notice when they do.
TIP: Sneakers
Race 8
One of the toughest races of the day here. VILLA ROSA probably has the most ability in the race but she’s first up here over 1000m from barrier 11, and it’s hard to see where she gets in the run. There looks to be a couple of speedy horses drawn inside her, so I think they’ll drift back or be caught wide, and if that’s the case, it could be hard for her to make ground at Cranbourne. I’m with GWENNETH who resumed nicely with a 3rd placing behind Motown Lil at Sandown. She should jump straight to the front from the good draw and if she’s improved fitness-wise she may be able to hold them off late. She’s won her only previous second up run and with that run under her belt, she probably has a slight advantage over the other two fancied runners. OPEN HOUSE bolted in by 3L on debut at this track and distance at $91, and backed that up with a 3rd placing in midweek city grade at Sandown. She’s been off the scene since then, which was 308 days ago, and resumes with the one trial under the belt. She won that trial, with Villa Rosa back in 3rd, but I just wonder how ready she will be after such a long time off. HOLLYWOOD GIRL the value.
TIP: Gwenneth
Race 9
DEPORTED is an interesting runner here, a former Kiwi having his first start in Australia, and as a gelding. He didn’t do much in his final few starts in New Zealand but he tuned up for this race with a very stylish trial on heavy ground over 990m. He led all the way to win by 3L, with a further 3L back to 3rd. Draws well, trained at the track, and the money has come for him since gaining a start as fourth emergency. Taking $3.70. I think CARUSELLE is clearly the one to beat. She resumes from a short let-up and did win first up last prep. The key for her will be the track remaining in the soft range by this time of the day. If it gets upgraded to good ground by the time this race comes it won’t suit her as much. MARGELLAN the value here first up from a spell at double figure odds, and JUSTA DREAMA should be thereabouts.
TIP: Deported
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