Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing under lights at Cranbourne on Friday night, November 24th.
We have an eight-race card in the lead up to Ballarat Cup Day on Saturday in Victoria, and Railway Stakes Day at Ascot. The Cranbourne track is rated a Good 4, and while there are some thunderstorms predicted on Friday evening, there isn’t a great deal of rain forecast.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below to kick off a great weekend of racing.
CRANBOURNE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Prince Of Pagoda
Best Value: Race 7 Knight Commander
Race 1
Tough race to start things off with a very even field assembled for a maiden over the 1000m. I’m interested in SPECTRUMS RHYTHM here who has had three quiet trials leading into tonight. Two of those were in June, and her latest was 10 days ago, so clearly she had a decent break in between. In her latest trial she wasn’t asked to do much at all and closed off soundly, so with a good draw and 53.5kg, she should get a nice run behind what looks a decent tempo. Never keen to bet heavily in these races but could entertain her around the $5 mark. Robert Smerdon originally had two runners engaged but scratched one, leaving SHAKIRA as his sole representative. Had nothing go right in its first preparation but has since been spelled and trialled well leading into tonight. The blinkers go on and barrier 1 should give her every chance. REDWOOD CITY is favourite but will have to be good from barrier 13 over the short course. She maps to go forward but there’s a few that will join her so she may not get things easy up on the pace. OUR AUDREY and interesting runner on debut with no public trials. Has had some betting support which is always ominous, but has bar plates on her front feet which is a significant negative. VERA JOY was good on debut and can run well again.
TIP: Spectrums Rhythm
Race 2
ALNAAS comes up very short here after running 3rd on debut at Mornington, beaten 1.75L. She was making ground when having to be steadied at the 100m mark before picking up again late, so it was a decent effort. Looks to improve up to the 1400m and comes out of the strong Lindsay Park stable with Regan Bayliss to ride. Ticks plenty of boxes but does appear short enough in the market. GEEGEE BOOM was only fair on debut but improved out of sight second up when finishing hard to run 2nd at Echuca. There was a gap to 3rd and the step up to 1400m is sure to suit. Draws awkwardly in 10 but I like the stable and I’d rather take $6 about her than $2.20 for the favourite. CAREERING AWAY was good first up over 1100m and draws well here but I don’t like the jockey booking from a betting perspective. FEARLESS ANGUS is one to include at double figure odds and FONTEIN FLYER can improve.
TIP: Geegee Boom EW
Race 3
FOLK SONG is another short-priced favourite from the Lindsay Park yard and this time I am happy to take the $2.80. She trialled nicely leading before debuting at Ballarat with a 2nd placing after being held up for a part of the straight. She just maps perfectly here from barrier 4 and should enjoy the run of the race. Should be tough to beat. The stablemate FLYING FLYWHEEL is on debut after finishing 3rd in its only public trial. She should also get a nice run from barrier 5 but I’d suggest the booking of Regan Bayliss on Folk Song is a strong indicator that she’s the better chance. VIVENDI could lead or box seat from barrier 1 and the Ellerton/Zahra/Symons combination is going particularly well at the moment. MISSCINO can go close after two good runs at her past two starts, while AZARYAH is one I’d throw in at the big odds despite a very poor showing in its only public trial.
TIP: Folk Song
Race 4
MATAKANUI looks incredibly hard to beat here after a dominant maiden win last time out at Moe over 1600m. It’s generally not easy for horses to make the step up to BM64 grade at their first start out of maiden grade but this horse looks more than capable, especially with the soft draw. The best value in the race at each way odds could be TREICHELN, who is a better place chance than a winning chance. He’s raced three times at this track and distance and has placed on all three occasions, two of which have come at his past two starts. He’ll be at the back of the field but can run into the money. ROAR next best.
TIP: Matakanui
Race 5
It’s good to see the talented NETHERFIELD return to the track here but I’m cautious of taking the $2.30 on offer about him first up since May, coming off a tough run over 2500m in the South Australian Derby. He’s trialled nicely leading into tonight’s race, but first up at 1400m with 60kg is a query. He’s still a definite winning chance but I’d need closer to $3 to be entertaining him as a betting prospect. AMORTENTIA continues to race consistently and comes here off a 26-day break. Her two most recent wins have come off 24 and 26-day breaks, so she races best with her runs spaced. She drops back to BM64 grade here after being beaten less than a length in BM70 grade last start, and she’s won her only start at the track and distance. 59kg is plenty of weight to carry but she’s well placed here. MYOPIC bolted in first up before narrowly being beaten in a small field last start. He ran 2nd at his only start over this track and distance and should be competitive here. LOKITIN isn’t the worst.
TIP: Amortentia
Race 6
I’m keen to play around the favourite SERENADE THE STARS who looks slightly under the odds for mine. I thought he was disappointing last start and would need to improve to win, and there’s a few others at better prices that interest me. BINT EL BEDU will need to be good to come from back in the field here but I thought her second up run behind Linguist at Flemington was a good effort and backed up a solid first up win. $6.50 is a backable price. If she’s included then we must include the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott runner HISTORY REPEATS, who finished ahead of Bint El Bedu in the race at Flemington. Any runner from this stable that’s running in Melbourne has to be included at the moment. I thought the value was clearly Tony McEvoy’s PRINCE OF PAGODA at $8. He ran a huge race first up from over 500 days off the track, before possibly just racing flat second up. He bounced back last start with a good win at Morphettville, and McEvoy wouldn’t bring him here if he wasn’t going to be a winning chance. Looks to have found a winnable race and I’m happy to back at those odds. POTEMKIN next best.
TIP: Bint El Bedu / Prince Of Pagoda (Best Value)
Race 7
KNIGHT COMMANDER comes off a dominant debut win at Kyneton and it could be telling that Weir elects to keep John Allen on instead of opting for an apprentice. He won by 3.75L and looks more than capable of making the step up here. DON’T BLUSH BABY was good when breaking its maiden last start, after a good debut performance. If Knight Commander is below par then it’s reasonable to suggest this could be your winner. If Myopic wins Race 5, or runs very well, then it’s worth including ONE HOT DANE at each way odds. He ran 2nd to Myopic two starts ago before bolting in by 7L last start. RED HEARTS is a very interesting runner for the Snowdens after placing at his past two in provincial grade in New South Wales.
TIP: Knight Commander (Best Bet)
Race 8
Keen to take on this favourite NICODAME who was unlucky not to win here first up but enjoyed the run of the race on that occasion and won’t get that tonight from barrier 10. He ran well first up last prep before a flat second up run, so that’s another concern I have. To add to that, there’s some of the bigger stables involved here and they typically come to the fore at these sorts of meetings, so I’d be keen to take on a Pat Carey-trained favourite. The horse itself has some nice form behind the likes of Ruby Sea from last prep, but just at the price I’ll be looking elsewhere. I’m most interested in the two horses that come here off debut wins. The first is LORETO for Tony McEvoy, who won at Horsham over 1100m on debut. Every indication from that performance is that the extra furlong here will suit him, and $6 for a Tony McEvoy runner in a race like this looks a good bet. NOT OVERLY PLUCKED won at Traralgon on debut, also over 1100m. She’s trained locally at Cranbourne, and although the form out of her debut win doesn’t look particularly strong, she could go well at double figure odds. I’d include JODI NICOLE in everything – she is one of just two rides for Luke Nolen on the night and the market suggested she’d need the run first up. She’s better than that and gets back to her home track here and can go well at each way odds. DIVINE COMMAND is a Weir runner and is third up from a spell so I’d expect improvement here.
TIP: Loreto / Not Overly Plucked EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
