The final game on NRL Super Saturday heads north to Townsville with the Cowboys hosting the Dolphins. With these sides separated by just 2 competition points on the ladder, the result will be crucial to both moving forward. Each crave consistency and will be desperate to dominate this contest. This promises to be an exhilarating contest and Before You Bet is here to take you through the action.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs The Dolphins
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 4th May – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Cowboys were defeated 26-20 by the Panthers at home last week, missing an opportunity to capitalise on their strong execution which was reflected statistically. They put themselves in a solid position by dominating possession (55%) and completing at 84%. They also made more total metres, pcm’s and line breaks (6 vs 4). Yet, they were ineffective at breaking their opponent’s defensive line; they will also need to reassess their end to attacking sets which, at times, was unsuccessful at building pressure.
The Dolphins also head into this game on the back of a loss following their upset 18-14 defeat by the Knights. Expected to perform well in front of their home fans, the Dolphins were their own worst enemy. With 48% possession, they completed at 81% but averaged just 8.2m per carry (Knights 9m). They didn’t generate second phase play, having fewer pcm’s; they were also unable to capitalise on their line breaks (7 vs 4). They will also want to address their defensive structure too as they missed 46 tackles. Overall, it was a game they would like to forget and will need to be better if they are to be competitive in this contest.
Match Prediction
This game is a confusing one to assess. Having met 3 times since the Dolphins’ inception, the away team has won all three fixtures by an average margin of 19.7 points. With the first victory (to the Dolphins) being by 10 points, the other two have been emphatic 20+ victories to the Cowboys.
The odds suggest that this game is likely to follow a similar trend, with the Cowboys listed as favourites ($1.38 vs $3.10). There was a lot to like about their performance last week against the Panthers and they had all the signs of a team who had improve since their loss to the Sharks. Still, it wasn’t enough and their season averages cloud confidence when investing on them.
The Dolphins will undoubtedly look to their strong defensive record this season to find an edge. They concede 19ppg compared to the Cowboys 27ppg; the home side also trail in attack, averaging 25ppg whereas the Dolphins are slightly better with 26ppg. This provides a strong case for the Dolphins winning this match and makes the price enticing. More so, it means that the line (8.5) might be the safer option.
In case you cannot tell, there is a strong lean towards the Dolphins winning this contest. There is a high level of risk involved with this selection, therefore, it is recommended to side with this game being a high scoring contest. The average total points between these sides is 56.3 points, with 2 games of 60+. If the conditions are right in Townsville (which is looking highly likely), a similar outcome is expected.
Total Points Over 48.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
It is going against the trend of games between these two sides but taking either team to win by less than 2 converted tries falls within the season averages for each. Bostock and Drinkwater (equal with Holmes) are the leading try scorers for their club. Their teams are better when they are getting their hands on the ball, so expect them to be involved as much as possible over 80 minutes.
Either Team By Under 12.5 Points
Bostock to Score
Drinkwater to Score
SGM Odds: $8 at Ladbrokes
