Special betting tip: 'The Wolverine' Box Office performance

Market: The Wolverine Australian Opening Weekend Box Office - Sportsbet
When: Betting closes 7.30pm AEST Wednesday, July 24th.

Long term successful punting is finding value wherever you can and taking that value firmly in your grasp. Sometimes that means betting on some markets that you may usually ignore. Well, this week we don’t think you can ignore one of Sportsbet’s novelty markets on the box office opening weekend of ‘The Wolverine’. It is released this coming weekend, from July 25th.

Basically, Sportsbet is offering a market on how much money ‘The Wolverine’ will make in the opening weekend at the Australian box office, according to the official figures released at BoxOfficeMojo.com.  The weekend box office for The Wolverine would be from July 25th - 28th. Check out the wagering options available below.

First of all, take Under 3 million and Over 9 million out of the equation. We just simply don’t think they are a chance, but we will get to the reasons for that soon. Firstly we will run you through the last seven weekends and what the box office gross was, in AUD from BoxOfficMojo figures, as per the betting requirement.

July 18^th – 21^st: The Heat - $2,796,975 (Second weekend)
July 11^th – 14^th: The Heat - $3,880,355
July 4^th – 7^th: Despicable Me 2 - $4,706,340
June 27^th – 30^th: Man Of Steel - $8,877,913
June 20^th – 23^rd: World War Z - $6,003,673
June 13^th – 16^th: Fast & Furious 6 - $4,683,316 (Second weekend)
June 6^th – 9^th: Fast & Furious 6 - $11,088,061
 

Okay, so as you can see above, no film in the last seven weekends went below $3 million and only one went over $9 million. So, like we said, let’s take those options out… Unless you really think ‘The Wolverine’ won’t do better than a Sandra Bullock comedy.

Now you will see Fast & Furious 6 did do more than $9 million in business and we wouldn’t blame you for thinking that The Wolverine could easily do as much business as that film. One HUGE factor in the Fast & Furious numbers is that its opening weekend from June 6^th – 9^th was Queen’s Birthday weekend, which will always inflate the box office. The Wolverine isn’t blessed with opening on a holiday weekend and so the figures are going to be closer to that of Man of Steel. Even then, Man Of Steel did open June 27^th – 30^th which was the first weekend of the majority of the school holidays around the country - Another factor that The Wolverine doesn’t have on its side.

So with all of the above factors in mind, along with the fact that The Wolverine isn’t as popular a character as Superman, it is sensible  to reason that The Wolverine won’t do as much as Man of Steel. Straight up, it would just a be a huge surprise if The Wolverine did more business than Man of Steel, so like we said, we can take over $9 million out of contention. But now we must decide how much less business than Man of Steel will The Wolverine do?

There is no doubt that Australians love Hugh Jackman, but that won’t be enough to see The Wolverine do huge numbers.  If we look at the last stand alone Wolverine movie ‘X:Men Origins: Wolverine’ released back in 2009, it did $4,832,014 on its opening weekend. The last X-Men movie, “First Class” in 2011 didn’t feature Wolverine, but it did $5,059,575 in its opening weekend. The X-Men film before that ‘The Last Stand’ scored $5,063,912 in its opening weekend. As you can see, there is a bit of a trend here, so right now Sportsbet’s 5 million – 7 million category is looking very nice.

However, there is one other factor that I think will see The Wolverine push just over $7 million - The Wolverine is competing against almost nothing. Firstly, there is no other major release this weekend, with Behind the Candelabra featuring only a limited release.  Last weekend’s highest grossing film was The Heat in its second weekend. The second and third places were filled by This is the End and The Conjuring in their first weeks. So basically The Wolverine is competing against The Heat in its third weekend and two quite poorly performing films in This is the End and The Conjuring in their second weekends.

For the above reasons, along with the fact The Wolverine is released in 3d, where its predecessors weren’t, we are leaning heavily toward The Wolvering scraping over $7 million at the box office in its opening weekend, but less than $9 million.

This special betting market can be found only at Sportsbet. To navigate to the bet, click on ‘Novelties’ then ‘Hollywood’ then ‘Hugh Jackman Specials’.

Bet On: The Wolverine Australian Box Office Opening Weekend:  7,000,001 – 9,000,000 ($2.80) at Sportsbet

Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!