After a short break, the 4th Ashes Cricket Test is upon us with the series finding a little bit of life at Old Trafford. The end result was a draw, allowing England to retain the Ashes, but Australia showed a lot more fight. If it wasn’t for the rain on Day 5, we might’ve been looking at a 2-1 scoreline. As it is we’re at 2-0, which means we’re looking for results in the last two matches to reach our predicted 3-1 scoreline.
Sadly, it looks like the weather may play a part once again in the 4th Test in Durham which kicks off Friday night Australian time. A result is certainly possible, but if Australia can bat well once again, then a draw seems the most likely play.
The Australians have brought in Jackson Bird to the squad at the expense of Ashton Agar, but unless Ryan Harris has an injury concern, then I can’t see any changes being made. The only change seems to be that Warner might open with Watson pushed down the order. I’m not a fan of this move. Warner could be a devastating number six while I feel Watson has a better technique and temperament for the swinging ball, even if his numbers are down.
The English may look to rotate their quicks to avoid burnout. Graeme Onions seems the likely man to get a call up with Stuart Broad a chance to be rested.
4th Test Play
Back the Draw @$3.60 on Betfair. We’re likely to see some patchy weather early on which should see this price shorten. You then have the option to lay and move your bet onto England at a juicier price than their current $2.10.
Side Bets
We had some mixed luck with our side bets last Test but we’re going to stay strong where we feel there is value.
Alistair Cook to score more runs in the 1st Innings versus Michael Clarke @$2.10 on BetStar (Use membership referral number 43707 when you create an account to help support our site). It’s tough betting against Australia’s best cricketer but Cook is due for a big score, and this really should be an even money proposition.
Usman Khawaja to score more runs in the 1st Innings versus David Warner @$2.05 on BetStar (Use membership referral number 43707 when you create an account to help support our site). Warner is so hit or miss, that we’re going with the more consistent Khawaja who looks to be finding his feet at this level.
Shane Watson to score 25 runs before Chris Rogers @$2.25 on BetStar (Use membership referral number 43707 when you create an account to help support our site). Rogers flew out of the blocks last Test which was a costly surprise. Watson remains the more likely to get to 25 runs first, so we’ll stick with him. If he doesn’t open then this bet is refunded.
Ian Bell to score more runs in the match versus Steve Smith @$1.87 on Luxbet. Bell is the leading run scorer in the series, while Smith is going ok, but still vulnerable. Happy to take Bell here every time. Note that both innings count in this bet.
Mitchell Starc to take more wickets in the match versus Stuart Broad @$1.95 on Luxbet. Starc is a bowler on the improve and highly capable of taking a bag, while I’m not convinced that Broad short-pitched bowling does much damage against the Aussies who are used to that kind of bounce.
Team with the most run outs – Draw @ $2.00 on Luxbet. This is the bet we love to hate. We’ve missed out recently with the Aussies getting into a muddle chasing quick runs. Hopefully we’ll see some sensible cricket and no run outs to be seen.
Futures Bets
Our play on Shane Watson to lead the run scorers looks shot, but we're in good shape with our other plays. Graeme Swan is now into less than even money Betfair for series leading wicket taker after another bag at Old Trafford. Followers of our tips got on at $7.50 before the series. You can now lay this bet for a nice profit or ride it out. Note that the quicks will probably play more of a role in the 4th Test.
The series bet of 3-1 has also shortened to $4.60, but the 3-0 and 4-0 results are still favoured, so you can lay now for a small profit or hope for the Aussies to pinch a Test somehow.
